Defense thats just offensive

Clearly the Irish defense is struggling. The Irish defense ranks 94th overall in the country - 91st against the pass, and 74th against the run. Turrrrable, turrrrable, turrrrable. But why? Many point to scheme, the defensive line, coaching, or just lack of talent as the causes of the performance. Likely its a combination of issues. Here are a few to ponder:

Scheme  -  Many people think the Irish are blitzing ourselves out of plays. That's partially true. The talent of the blitzers is one thing - but one issue is the lack of surprise with the blitzing. The opposition knows the Irish will blitz roughly 75% of the time, and their passing offenses thus far have been perfectly designed around 3 step drops by the QB, using slants, drags, and short hitch routes. These short routes are very difficult for cornerbacks to defend - particularly with as much cushion (sometimes 10 yards) as Irish CBs are giving to opposing WRs. The blitz and cornerback cushion limit big plays at the cost of the shorter routes. The coverage just doesn't match the short routes teams are using to counter the expected Irish blitz. Hopefully the coaches will get the coverage and blitzing more "in sync". Just once I would love to see all our linebackers on the line of scrimmage - clearly blitzing - only to drop back into zone coverage looking for a slant route. Young QBs are so worried about getting rid of the ball against the Irish, maybe we pick one off.  

Tackling  -  Great post here by the guys at Blue Gray Sky. Defensive Tackle Ian Williams, and Middle linebacker Toryan Smith have typically been on the ground or just out of position on most plays. Gaping holes in the middle = easy rushing yards. You can scheme and coach all you want, but when players over pursue (Toryan) or lose their balance (Ian), they must be held accountable. Maybe the players should be more well coached - but there comes a point where players must execute by winning the 1 on 1 battles. 

Talent  -  We will give out midseason grades to compare with the preseason positional previews here at Vatican Smoke. So far, the defensive line has majorly disappointed, the linebackers have slightly disappointed, and the cornerbacks have been disappointing. I have a feeling talent is not the issue in the secondary - but rather the lack of pressure combined with our soft coverage not quite ready for the shorter routes teams are using. But clearly we are undermanned on the defensive line. The linebackers are young and talented enough to play much better. The recruiting misses of 2005 thru 2007 on the defensive line are coming home to roost just like the offensive line misses in 2003-2005 came to fruition in 2007. 

1st Down  -  Tenuta emphasizes "winning on 1st down" as much as all defensive coaches do. I'd say that first down is even more important in Tenuta's scheme, because blitzing works much more effectively in 2nd and 3rd and long than shorts. The Irish are a putrid 95th in the country in first down defense. The Irish defensive improvement, if its happens, will highly correlate with 1st down performance. Fixing those gaping holes in the middle will go a long way in this department. 

Red Zone  -  Amazingly, the Irish defense ranks 5th in the country in red zone defense. A fumble by Nevada, an interception by MSU last weekend, and a missed FG by Michigan all have aided this stat. I have a feeling that this statistic is an anomaly - but maybe not. Red Zone Defense is critical, clearly, and the Irish have performed darn well so far. Lets see if this ranking holds up after a few more games. 

A great play call that should have ended the MSU game 2 plays earlier  -  You can read my post on Irish message board ND nation by clicking here - including video and more detail. I describe a play that could have won the game, and was clearly a solid playcall by the defensive coaches. The play I am describing is a 3rd down and 6 on Michigan St's final drive, at the Irish 26 yard line. Ray Herring, playing nickelback (cornerback on the slot receiver, essentially), defends/tips pass up in the air, only to be caught anyway by the Michigan St WR near the ND sideline, falling out of bounds, for the first down. Herring faked the blitz, then dropped back into apparent man to man coverage on the slot receiver. In fact he was in zone coverage at the first down marker/flat area - and he broke at the perfect time on the outside 10 yard hitch route route run by the WR, who appeared to be wide open.  Bottom line - Herring did not execute via an easy pass deflection out of bounds or interception. The tip out of bounds forces a game tying 42 yard field goal, giving the Irish the ball back with 1:10 in a tie game, at worst. An interception ends the game. Two plays later the Spartans miss a wide open receiver in the end zone that would never have happened. Blame some playcalls by the defensive staff, but players must make plays. 

The Purdue game preview should be up on Friday. Purdue should be excited and ready to play  -  its a home night game, nationally televised on ESPN, and they have planned a "black out" with glow in the dark Purdue tshirts. What a bunch of full fledged a$$holes. The Irish offense should have little problem moving the ball and scoring. However, the offensive is banged up with Armando Allen and Jimmy Clausen nursing some injuries this week - and it would certainly be nice if the defense made some plays, avoiding another shootout. Winning on the road in a hostile environment is never easy - and this will be a decent test for the Irish before tougher road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford later in the season. Again, I am anxious to see how the Irish respond. 

2-1

The Irish finally defeated Sparty on Saturday, winning 33-30 in a down to the wire finish. Charlie Weis has now broken two streaks that the previous two ND coaches Davie & Willingham could not - beating Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium, and winning a bowl game.

Saturday was at the same time a huge relief and a huge concern. The defense clearly is struggling to stop the pass and the run, giving up 459 yards of total offense and 30 points to an average offensive team in Michigan State. And certainly the Spartans failed to capitalize on some defensive miscues (one at the end of the game in particular). That said, the Irish deserve to be 2-1 and are still technically in play for a solid season. Certainly it's a positive to see the Irish take advantage of the late Spartan miscue, which incidentally came on the first real QB pressure of the day.

Lots of things have to happen for the Irish to finish with that 10-2 record and a BCS berth. Two key questions that must be answered in order to reach that goal, at this stage of the season:

• Without Floyd, can the offense keep scoring 34 points per game? With Floyd out, defenses are going to double team Golden Tate. Kyle Rudolph and the other wide receivers - time to step up. Expect Weis to counter with a very heavy dose of Rudolph, who's size and hands create a mismatch with nearly every linebacker and safety in the country. Whether its Rudolph or Shaq Evans or other wideouts - Charlie is going to have to change the playbook and replace Floyd's production.
• Can the Irish win on the road? During 2007 and 2008, the Irish have gone 4-7 on the road, with 2 road wins in each season. 2007 featured road wins against UCLA and Stanford, while 2008 road wins were Navy (in Baltimore) and Washington. A pattern has developed of playing poorly on the road against decent teams. A convincing road victory in front of a national primetime audience this Saturday night would be good preparation for the more difficult road games coming up in November against Pittsburgh and Stanford.

I know what you're thinking: why no key question about our defense? The Irish defense has been terrible, no doubt. But the unit should improve after getting exposed early in the season. Expect a bend but not break defense than will start to limit most opponents to scores in the 20s while the offense keeps scoring near the 30s.

We'll learn a little bit about the Irish on Saturday night when we face an overmatched Purdue team on the road. Winning a night game on the road in the first game without our best WR won't be easy (that's why Vegas has the line currently as Irish favored by only 8.5 points). Purdue's not to be mistaken for a good team, however - but a decisive victory with a solid offensive performance would be a great start to answering both of these questions.

Michigan St. Preview: Flags of our Rivals

The Irish attempt to pull themselves off the mat this Saturday at 230pm central time against Michigan St. in Notre Dame Stadium (NBC). Michigan St has won 6 straight in Notre Dame Stadium, dating back to the Clinton administration (1993). Michigan St planted their flag on Notre Dame's turf back in 2005, Charlie's first season, after a 44-41 OT victory (shown above).

The Irish are 10.5 pt favorites, but both 1-1 squads are in dire need of a win to get back on track. That said, the Irish have way more to lose this game than the Spartans. Here are some things to watch for:

When Michigan St has the ball . . . 

• Can they run the ball like the Michigan St teams of old? Since the Irish are giving up 5.0YPC this season, its assumed that Michigan St will have some success on the ground. Caulton Ray and Larry Caper are inexperienced Spartan RBs, but still averaging 4YPC together thru 2 games. Despite the decent YPC, MSU is only gaining 138 yards per game - much lower than prior years. And those stats were against Montana St. and Central Michigan. The MSU running game is a very physical and straight ahead brand - unlike the spread and misdirection the Irish faced in the first two weeks. Despite their slow start running the ball, I expect MSU to have some success running against the Irish. 
• Will Michigan St have continued success passing the ball? Averaging 267 passing yards per game is very high for an MSU squad. Using two very inexperienced QBs (Nichol and Cousins), the Spartans have had a much more aerial attack than in years past. The Irish strength on defense is the pass defense, which prompts the question - will the Spartans attack through the air - their strength thus far - or attack the Irish weakness of run defense? I expect Michigan St to try to win the game thru the air, in a little bit of game theory - the Spartans will expect the Irish to over focus on run defense, while underestimating the Spartan passing attack. Forcing some turnovers from these inexperienced QBs (Cousins will be making his first ever road start) will be a key to the game for the Irish.
• Can the Irish rush the passer?  The Michigan St pass protection has been stellar (not perfect like the Irish protection has been, however), allowing only a half a sack thru 2 games. If Michigan St is going to pass the ball against a Jon Tenuta defense, pressure will have to be handled by the Spartan offensive line. Any QB with time can make passes, while any QB on his back can't. Pressure will be a major factor in this game for both defenses. Expect even more pressure by Tenuta if the Irish are having success against the run - and especially since Cousins is not fleet of foot like Forcier or Kaepernick. 

When the Irish have the ball . . .

• Can the Irish run the ball enough to balance the Spartan defense?  Notre Dame is running the ball better than at any point of the Charlie Weis era. But Michigan State's front 7 defenders are better than Michigan and Nevada's - significantly so in my opinion. Michigan State's super middle linebacker Greg Jones is a mean mo-fo, average 14(!) tackles per game. He will be involved in the tackle somehow on every single running play, you can count on it. Likely those yards after contact that Armando Allen has been getting are going to be limited against the Spartans. A 150 yard rushing game for the Irish would be a fantastic accomplishment, especially considering the rush game stat line from the game against the Spartans last year: 16 yards rushing, on 22 attempts. YIKES
• Can the Irish exploit the Spartan secondary?  Central Michigan passed with success on the Spartans, hurting the confidence of the MSU defensive backs according to their very own defensive backs coach. As seen the first two games, defending the Irish passing attack is not for the meek. Man on man without deep zone coverage or pressure, the Irish passing attack will succeed. D'Antonio knows this, and will counter appropriately with a package of selective and conservative blitzes, as well as plenty of 2 deep safety coverage.  I get a feeling D'Antonio is expecting Clausen to feel the weight of the world and get impatient, forcing a few deep throws into coverage. Whether Jimmy will be able to take the short check downs given to him will be a major factor in the game. 
• Will Spartan defenders be able to pressure Clausen? D'Antonio knows that Clausen and our wideouts will pick his secondary apart if given time, especially against straight up man for man coverage. As stated above, I think we will see a lot of conservative and deep pass coverage, to avoid the big play by the Irish. While this is a decent idea, there is just no way the Spartans can do that all day without Clausen adjusting. Expect a good number of 3rd down and otherwise very conservative blitzes enough to keep the Irish offensive line on its toes. Michigan State's defensive line will be a handful, so I expect a tired offensive line missing a linebacker or two and allowing a sack for the first time all season. What will the Irish counter this pressure with? The Charlie Weis special, screen passes. Lets just hope Charlie makes good guesses as to when to throw the screen and run max protect plays. Vatican Smoke recommends a slightly different approach - 5 wide, no huddle. Hit TE Rudolph all day. If you're reading this Charlie, you're welcome for the free advice. 

Since Lou Holtz has left, Michigan State has had our number. No matter how easy it was supposed to be against the Spartans, Michigan State always bring tough offensive and defensive lines that bust their a$$ and make the Irish work for every single yard. This game will not be for the timid, undisciplined, or immature. Where last year's team may have wilted, I expect the more experienced Irish squad to grind early, but win convincingly, largely due to a lack of offense and some turnovers on the Spartans. If the Irish give up a sack or two, and only rush for 100 yards, do not consider this a step back - but rather a step forward. Michigan State is a quality team that will be in the conversation for the Big 10 elite, despite last week's setback (first upset of the D'Antonio era). 

Game Prediction:

Notre Dame  31   Michigan St  17

(season record straight up 1-1, against the spread, 0-2)

Have a great weekend Irish fans  -  GO IRISH!!

Moving Forward

Before we completely move on from the Michigan loss, here are a few stat nuggets and notes related to both the game and the season thus far:

• Michael Floyd will play this weekend after receiving 15 stitches due to a cut on his knee suffered with 5 minutes to go in the game.
• Weis is sending in a good number of plays to the Big 10 officials for review. Numerous bad calls happen in a normal game, but this game had more than usual. Referees are not perfect, but 2 or 3 of the calls would have been enough of an edge to win the game. For instance, the lack of a pass interference on the "pre-catch wrestling" with Golden Tate at 2 minutes to go (shown above) is one that certainly would have closed the game out.
• While Michigan out rushed the Irish 190 yards to 154, both teams averaged similar YPC - ND 5.1, Mich 5.0. Don't let the loss blur our fantastic success running the ball. The Irish rushed for just 3.3YPC in 2008, and much less in the 2007 beatdown.
• The Irish passed for 336 yards vs Michigan's 240. Total offensive yards favored the Irish, 490-430.
• Time of possession, turnovers, missed field goals, 3rd down conversion, and even 4th down conversion were all pretty much the same for both teams. What gives? Two things:
• A 94 yard kickoff return for a TD by Michigan's Darryl Stonum, against the 2008 #1 KO coverage unit in the country. The breakdown not only cost the Irish possibly the game, but also a chance to finish in the top 10 in KO coverage yet again.
• Having the ball last - If the Irish get the ball back with 1 minute and a timeout or two, or simply catch the wideopen and poorly run hitch route on 3rd down with 2 minutes to go, the game could have been ended differently.
• Notre Dame is one of only 7 teams in the country that have 0 sacks thru 2 games. Great offensive line protection has been a huge factor in Jimmy's amazing start
• ND is average 500 yards of total offense per game - putting them at #17 in the country. And certainly the teams ahead of us have played schools not quite as solid as Nevada and Michigan.
• The scariest stat so far season to date . . . rushing yards given up. Notre Dame is 88th in the country in rush defense, giving up 5.1ypc thru 2 games.
• Did Michigan get a little rough after plays were over? Watch the bottom of the screen in this clip, and judge for yourself.

The Irish program moves forward from a difficult loss against Michigan by facing Michigan State this weekend in Notre Dame Stadium - the same Michigan State team that the following can be attributed to:

• Has won 6 straight games in Notre Dame stadium (last win for the Irish vs MSU at home - 1993!)
• Upset by Central Michigan at home last week, 29-27, on a last second field goal
• Predicted by many in the pre-season (including VaticanSmoke) to defeat Notre Dame

The keys to this game are the non-statistical hurdles that both teams must face. Which team can respond coming off a crushing loss? Can Notre Dame win with the added pressure of the Michigan loss? Can the Irish final break the spell of the Spartans in Notre Dame stadium? On the surface it looks as if Michigan State has a strong line on both sides of the ball, and strong linebackers - but that's it. Notre Dame should be able to pass the ball, largely because no one has come close to stopping them yet. The Irish are going to have issues defending against the Michigan State run game, however. A more conventional attack with lack of a proficient passing game should make this task easier for the Irish than the Spartans' attempt to stop the Irish aerial attack.

Needless to say, this is a critical game for the program and especially for Weis. If the Irish are going to have a successful season, it starts with a good ole fashioned beat down on Saturday. Mark D'Antonio is not a coach that gets beat down often, given his conservative run the ball and stop the run approach. Many Irish fans are eager to see how this team responds to the often cliched "adversity". Game preview on Friday.

Tough Times Don't Last . . .

Tough loss for the Irish against the rival Wolverines on Saturday,
falling 38-34 on a td in the final 10 seconds. More details on the
stats will come later. The main question that lingers is "If not on
Saturday, then when?". The Irish continue to make strides on both
sides of the ball and in the talent department. Jimmy Clausen is the
best Irish qb I've ever seen - right now. Our WRs are uncoverable. And
we are finally starting to run the ball.

Many will criticize late game play calling, a missed field goal, very
suspect officiating, or the inability to catch a pass for a game
sealing first down. Those are all valid criticisms. Just remember when
perfection is required from the officials and our offense to win -
something is wrong. That something is our defensive line - a predicted
weakness that is far worse than initially feared.

The Irish were never a great team - just a good one. They still are,
and a BCS bowl is still there for the taking. Will they bounce back?
We'll see this weekend, when the Michigan St Spartans roll into South
Bend to try and erase their upset blues, while attempting to continue
the amazing 6 game winning streak in Notre Dame stadium.

The Irish should win all remaining games, except the USC game, by 14
points at least. And they should be within 7 pts of USC. That gives us
10-2 and a Sugar or Fiesta bowl birth. There - I feel better for
typing out this real and demanding request. Make no mistake though -
its a doable one. This Irish offense is better than any of us imagined
and USC is the only game the Irish won't be favored to win by a
touchdown or more. It starts on Saturday against the Spartans.