Monday, September 21, 2009

2-1

The Irish finally defeated Sparty on Saturday, winning 33-30 in a down to the wire finish. Charlie Weis has now broken two streaks that the previous two ND coaches Davie & Willingham could not - beating Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium, and winning a bowl game.
Saturday was at the same time a huge relief and a huge concern. The defense clearly is struggling to stop the pass and the run, giving up 459 yards of total offense and 30 points to an average offensive team in Michigan State. And certainly the Spartans failed to capitalize on some defensive miscues (one at the end of the game in particular). That said, the Irish deserve to be 2-1 and are still technically in play for a solid season. Certainly it's a positive to see the Irish take advantage of the late Spartan miscue, which incidentally came on the first real QB pressure of the day.

Lots of things have to happen for the Irish to finish with that 10-2 record and a BCS berth. Two key questions that must be answered in order to reach that goal, at this stage of the season:
  • Without Floyd, can the offense keep scoring 34 points per game? With Floyd out, defenses are going to double team Golden Tate. Kyle Rudolph and the other wide receivers - time to step up. Expect Weis to counter with a very heavy dose of Rudolph, who's size and hands create a mismatch with nearly every linebacker and safety in the country. Whether its Rudolph or Shaq Evans or other wideouts - Charlie is going to have to change the playbook and replace Floyd's production.
  • Can the Irish win on the road? During 2007 and 2008, the Irish have gone 4-7 on the road, with 2 road wins in each season. 2007 featured road wins against UCLA and Stanford, while 2008 road wins were Navy (in Baltimore) and Washington. A pattern has developed of playing poorly on the road against decent teams. A convincing road victory in front of a national primetime audience this Saturday night would be good preparation for the more difficult road games coming up in November against Pittsburgh and Stanford.
I know what you're thinking: why no key question about our defense? The Irish defense has been terrible, no doubt. But the unit should improve after getting exposed early in the season. Expect a bend but not break defense than will start to limit most opponents to scores in the 20s while the offense keeps scoring near the 30s.

We'll learn a little bit about the Irish on Saturday night when we face an overmatched Purdue team on the road. Winning a night game on the road in the first game without our best WR won't be easy (that's why Vegas has the line currently as Irish favored by only 8.5 points). Purdue's not to be mistaken for a good team, however - but a decisive victory with a solid offensive performance would be a great start to answering both of these questions.

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