The Irish are 10.5 pt favorites, but both 1-1 squads are in dire need of a win to get back on track. That said, the Irish have way more to lose this game than the Spartans. Here are some things to watch for:
When Michigan St has the ball . . .
- Can they run the ball like the Michigan St teams of old? Since the Irish are giving up 5.0YPC this season, its assumed that Michigan St will have some success on the ground. Caulton Ray and Larry Caper are inexperienced Spartan RBs, but still averaging 4YPC together thru 2 games. Despite the decent YPC, MSU is only gaining 138 yards per game - much lower than prior years. And those stats were against Montana St. and Central Michigan. The MSU running game is a very physical and straight ahead brand - unlike the spread and misdirection the Irish faced in the first two weeks. Despite their slow start running the ball, I expect MSU to have some success running against the Irish.
- Will Michigan St have continued success passing the ball? Averaging 267 passing yards per game is very high for an MSU squad. Using two very inexperienced QBs (Nichol and Cousins), the Spartans have had a much more aerial attack than in years past. The Irish strength on defense is the pass defense, which prompts the question - will the Spartans attack through the air - their strength thus far - or attack the Irish weakness of run defense? I expect Michigan St to try to win the game thru the air, in a little bit of game theory - the Spartans will expect the Irish to over focus on run defense, while underestimating the Spartan passing attack. Forcing some turnovers from these inexperienced QBs (Cousins will be making his first ever road start) will be a key to the game for the Irish.
- Can the Irish rush the passer? The Michigan St pass protection has been stellar (not perfect like the Irish protection has been, however), allowing only a half a sack thru 2 games. If Michigan St is going to pass the ball against a Jon Tenuta defense, pressure will have to be handled by the Spartan offensive line. Any QB with time can make passes, while any QB on his back can't. Pressure will be a major factor in this game for both defenses. Expect even more pressure by Tenuta if the Irish are having success against the run - and especially since Cousins is not fleet of foot like Forcier or Kaepernick.
When the Irish have the ball . . .
- Can the Irish run the ball enough to balance the Spartan defense? Notre Dame is running the ball better than at any point of the Charlie Weis era. But Michigan State's front 7 defenders are better than Michigan and Nevada's - significantly so in my opinion. Michigan State's super middle linebacker Greg Jones is a mean mo-fo, average 14(!) tackles per game. He will be involved in the tackle somehow on every single running play, you can count on it. Likely those yards after contact that Armando Allen has been getting are going to be limited against the Spartans. A 150 yard rushing game for the Irish would be a fantastic accomplishment, especially considering the rush game stat line from the game against the Spartans last year: 16 yards rushing, on 22 attempts. YIKES
- Can the Irish exploit the Spartan secondary? Central Michigan passed with success on the Spartans, hurting the confidence of the MSU defensive backs according to their very own defensive backs coach. As seen the first two games, defending the Irish passing attack is not for the meek. Man on man without deep zone coverage or pressure, the Irish passing attack will succeed. D'Antonio knows this, and will counter appropriately with a package of selective and conservative blitzes, as well as plenty of 2 deep safety coverage. I get a feeling D'Antonio is expecting Clausen to feel the weight of the world and get impatient, forcing a few deep throws into coverage. Whether Jimmy will be able to take the short check downs given to him will be a major factor in the game.
- Will Spartan defenders be able to pressure Clausen? D'Antonio knows that Clausen and our wideouts will pick his secondary apart if given time, especially against straight up man for man coverage. As stated above, I think we will see a lot of conservative and deep pass coverage, to avoid the big play by the Irish. While this is a decent idea, there is just no way the Spartans can do that all day without Clausen adjusting. Expect a good number of 3rd down and otherwise very conservative blitzes enough to keep the Irish offensive line on its toes. Michigan State's defensive line will be a handful, so I expect a tired offensive line missing a linebacker or two and allowing a sack for the first time all season. What will the Irish counter this pressure with? The Charlie Weis special, screen passes. Lets just hope Charlie makes good guesses as to when to throw the screen and run max protect plays. Vatican Smoke recommends a slightly different approach - 5 wide, no huddle. Hit TE Rudolph all day. If you're reading this Charlie, you're welcome for the free advice.
Since Lou Holtz has left, Michigan State has had our number. No matter how easy it was supposed to be against the Spartans, Michigan State always bring tough offensive and defensive lines that bust their a$$ and make the Irish work for every single yard. This game will not be for the timid, undisciplined, or immature. Where last year's team may have wilted, I expect the more experienced Irish squad to grind early, but win convincingly, largely due to a lack of offense and some turnovers on the Spartans. If the Irish give up a sack or two, and only rush for 100 yards, do not consider this a step back - but rather a step forward. Michigan State is a quality team that will be in the conversation for the Big 10 elite, despite last week's setback (first upset of the D'Antonio era).
Game Prediction:
Notre Dame 31 Michigan St 17
(season record straight up 1-1, against the spread, 0-2)
Have a great weekend Irish fans - GO IRISH!!
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