Another tough loss for the Irish against the Wolverines this past weekend, 28-24. Too many tough losses in the past few years unfortunately make this loss blend in with many others. I do think the loss was different, and there are some positives to take away from the game. Whether the Irish can right the ship in the next 4 critical games - night game at Michigan St, vs Stanford, at Boston College, and vs Pitt - all losable - will determine whether these positive signs were in fact reality.
Dayne Crist provides us with a few positives and one major negative. The bad news was that Dayne did not play on 8 of ND 's 15 possessions, as he had "blurred vision and swelling of the face". I want to say he needs to be tougher than that, but no one knows the details of his injury. One major piece of good news was that the Irish were 1 stop, 1 play, or 1 coaching decision away from having a great shot at winning the game - despite only having Crist for 7/15 drives. The Irish only scored with Dayne in the game, as he directed the Irish to scores on 4 of his 7 drives. Certainly with Crist in the game a few more drives, the Irish likely beat Michigan - especially considering 14 of Michigan's points came after turnovers by ND's backup QBs. Dayne's play was not perfect by any stretch, but the Irish look to have an eventual 5 star caliber QB on their hands the next 3 seasons.
Another very refreshing aspect of the game was the 2nd half adjustments and overall defensive play. The Irish did not make the key stop in the 4th quarter that they needed - a common trend with prior years unfortunately. But in limiting the Wolverines to only 7 2nd half points (the final touchdown), the Irish defense gave the offense a chance to take the lead and win the game. One major adjustment I saw while at the game was on the defensive line - as the Irish shifted all 3-4 down lineman towards the strong side of the field just before the snap. The shift gave the offensive line for Michigan some trouble, and it particularly helped the additional blitzing Bob Diaco brought in the 2nd half. Even though Michigan missed a few field goals, the Irish stopped the Wolverines on some big 3rd downs in the 2nd half.
Besides the inability to stop the Wolverines at the end of the game, some of the execution and coaching concerned me a bit. Brian Kelly revealed this week that the defensive backs were lined up to the outside, not the inside as called, on the key 3rd down conversion by Michigan in the 4th. In addition, BK mentioned a few other coverages that were perfectly called but just not executed on that final drive. Maybe the defense was tired, but executing a good play call with the game on the line needs to be an area where we dont make mistakes. The coaching decision I had issue with was not kicking the field goal before halftime, with the Irish on the Wolverine 3 yard line with 3 seconds left. Brian Kelly said he "never considered the field goal" - largely due to his not knowing whether Crist could return to the game. I said it before the play and after, that was a huge mistake - mostly for the fact that Nate Montana, the Irish 3rd string QB, had been erratic at best thus far. Reward your team and take the 3 points there. Those 3 points could have given the Irish a 37 yarder at the end of the game to WIN - had the game proceeded the same way. Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 19 years, so I trust his decisions and realize he makes them with more information and experience than I will ever have. This is just my view from the back row of the stadium.
A good comeback spoiled is all too common - but I think there are some good things brewing. Weis rarely corrected issues that surfaced, or made adjustments during the game or season. The next 4 games will provide us a glimpse as to whether Brian Kelly can reverse this trend.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Friday, September 10, 2010
Bend, not Break
For some time, its been said that Notre Dame's defense was a bend but not break unit. I think that term applies to every bad defense - but should it? Last two year's have seen Notre Dame defenses ranked in the bottom third of division 1-A - which to me, is a broken, bent over defense. While the personnel on defense has dictated a possible bend not break strategy as a solution, Jon Tenuta (ex Irish DC) did not take that approach with his planning - preferring aggression and blitzing on all downs. The past two years felt like Jon Tenuta was trying to beat someone up with a pillow - swinging hard and often, but forgetting that he didn't have the tools to execute.
After one game, and through the many preseason and midweek interviews of Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco, the Irish truly appear to be a defense looking to mitigate its weaknesses, and reacting to the offense - rather than ignoring them and trying to dictate to the difficult to stop spread offenses in college football. Against Purdue, the Irish avoided giving up the big play or giving up much against the run - essentially shifting their weakness towards the short pass.
How will the Irish adapt their defensive approach to the Wolverines on Saturday at 330pm ET? I expect a similar approach - preventing the deep pass or long run, while giving up short passes - which in Michigan's case, are often short QB runs. Look for Michigan to get their yards and their points, but for the Irish defensive approach in the red zone to be the difference in the game. Giving Denard Robinson a huge spread out zone inside the red zone - forcing him to make a difficult pass, while also watching his every move - should give the Irish a good chance for an interception or holding Michigan to a few field goals.
On offense, I don't see how Michigan can cover ND's WRs. They couldn't last year, having one of the worst pass defenses the Irish faced all season (Navy was light years better against the pass). This year, Michigan has only 2 scholarship CBs. The question is not if Irish WRs will be open, but whether we can protect Crist and whether he'll hit them. I think a very good, not great day from Crist, combined with another balanced, workman like day from the running game, will give the Irish all the points they need.
With the weather potentially wet - look for the passing games to become easier, while the running games become more difficult. Advantage Irish. Its also nice to know that the Irish special teams are likely going to be prepared and able to execute - whereas the 2009 team gave up critical field position and a TD return to Michigan. The underdog performs well in this series, so nothing should be taken for granted; but on paper and based on what we know about Brian Kelly and his staff, I see a great opportunity for the Irish.
Prediction:
IRISH 31 MICHIGAN 20
(For the season, 1-0 in predictions straight up, 0-0-1 against the spread)
After one game, and through the many preseason and midweek interviews of Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco, the Irish truly appear to be a defense looking to mitigate its weaknesses, and reacting to the offense - rather than ignoring them and trying to dictate to the difficult to stop spread offenses in college football. Against Purdue, the Irish avoided giving up the big play or giving up much against the run - essentially shifting their weakness towards the short pass.
How will the Irish adapt their defensive approach to the Wolverines on Saturday at 330pm ET? I expect a similar approach - preventing the deep pass or long run, while giving up short passes - which in Michigan's case, are often short QB runs. Look for Michigan to get their yards and their points, but for the Irish defensive approach in the red zone to be the difference in the game. Giving Denard Robinson a huge spread out zone inside the red zone - forcing him to make a difficult pass, while also watching his every move - should give the Irish a good chance for an interception or holding Michigan to a few field goals.
On offense, I don't see how Michigan can cover ND's WRs. They couldn't last year, having one of the worst pass defenses the Irish faced all season (Navy was light years better against the pass). This year, Michigan has only 2 scholarship CBs. The question is not if Irish WRs will be open, but whether we can protect Crist and whether he'll hit them. I think a very good, not great day from Crist, combined with another balanced, workman like day from the running game, will give the Irish all the points they need.
With the weather potentially wet - look for the passing games to become easier, while the running games become more difficult. Advantage Irish. Its also nice to know that the Irish special teams are likely going to be prepared and able to execute - whereas the 2009 team gave up critical field position and a TD return to Michigan. The underdog performs well in this series, so nothing should be taken for granted; but on paper and based on what we know about Brian Kelly and his staff, I see a great opportunity for the Irish.
Prediction:
IRISH 31 MICHIGAN 20
(For the season, 1-0 in predictions straight up, 0-0-1 against the spread)
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Purdue Pregame
Great video footage of UND.com that goes into the Irish lockeroom before the game to watch Brian Kelly's pregame speech, as well as Coach Kelly's first tap on the "Play Like a Champion" sign. Worth the 5 minutes.
Substance, not Style
The Irish beat the Purdue Boilermakers 23-12 on Saturday to start the Brian Kelly era off 1-0. The offense was balanced (160 yards rushing, 200 passing), and the defense only allowed 10 points to the Purdue offense. For once, the Irish won the special teams battle - returning 2 kickoffs for 50 yards, and 1 punt for 38 yards. Overall the performance was solid in all three phases - but spectacular in none. In fact, the spectacular was that the Irish was not the schizophrenic team we saw under Charlie Weis. Kelly's team closed the game out in the 4th quarter - when previous Irish teams may have lost it. Where style points were lacking, substance prevailed.
The all around solid play is a reflection of coaching more than anything else. Coaches must have the football knowledge to deploy, but they also must have intimate knowledge of both their own troops and the opposition. Weis and Kelly both know football - but it feels as though Kelly is better able to manage his teams weaknesses, as opposed to the Weis approach of that more ingenuity cures all ills. The Irish defense struggled with big plays and stopping the run last year. Kelly knows this, but also knows you cannot stop everything an offense throws at you without giving up something. The Irish defense focused on the run, while employing a cushioned zone with safeties deep much of the game - preventing many of the big plays and consistent running for Purdue. Purdue took the short passes - with Marve completing 31 of 42 pass attempts, but for only 220 yards. Make them complete 10 short passes instead of 1 or 2 - in the hopes that you can get pressure on a play here or there and stop the drive. The long 3rd quarter drive by Purdue that eventually ended in an interception after 15 plays was a perfect example of a defensive gameplan working.
Substance - not style - is what we saw from the Irish. Michigan - this week's opponent if you need reminding - looked spectacular in their besting of UConn this past weekend 30-10. Style yes - but substance? That remains to be seen. Even Michigan fans know that running their QB 29 times is not likely to end well over the course of a Big 10 season. While Denard Robinson passed amazingly well also (19 for 22), no other Michigan RB got more than 3.5yards a carry. Meanwhile, UConn was gaining 5 yards per carry yet fumbling inside the 10 and being unable to convert or defend 3rd downs. Giving up critical 3rd and 15s on broken running plays to Robinson revealed an unprepared UConn defense. Expect Brian Kelly to focus heavily on containing Denard Robinson - and not being stupid enough to think we can stop him. Giving up short precision throws while keeping him in front of our linebackers as much as possible, is likely the approach the Irish use. Expect some long Michigan drives that eventually stall in the red zone - where the Irish have less field to cover and Robinson has to be more accurate with his passes. How Notre Dame on offense converts in the red zone will be the key to what I expect to be a close game. More to come in the game preview later this week.
The all around solid play is a reflection of coaching more than anything else. Coaches must have the football knowledge to deploy, but they also must have intimate knowledge of both their own troops and the opposition. Weis and Kelly both know football - but it feels as though Kelly is better able to manage his teams weaknesses, as opposed to the Weis approach of that more ingenuity cures all ills. The Irish defense struggled with big plays and stopping the run last year. Kelly knows this, but also knows you cannot stop everything an offense throws at you without giving up something. The Irish defense focused on the run, while employing a cushioned zone with safeties deep much of the game - preventing many of the big plays and consistent running for Purdue. Purdue took the short passes - with Marve completing 31 of 42 pass attempts, but for only 220 yards. Make them complete 10 short passes instead of 1 or 2 - in the hopes that you can get pressure on a play here or there and stop the drive. The long 3rd quarter drive by Purdue that eventually ended in an interception after 15 plays was a perfect example of a defensive gameplan working.
Substance - not style - is what we saw from the Irish. Michigan - this week's opponent if you need reminding - looked spectacular in their besting of UConn this past weekend 30-10. Style yes - but substance? That remains to be seen. Even Michigan fans know that running their QB 29 times is not likely to end well over the course of a Big 10 season. While Denard Robinson passed amazingly well also (19 for 22), no other Michigan RB got more than 3.5yards a carry. Meanwhile, UConn was gaining 5 yards per carry yet fumbling inside the 10 and being unable to convert or defend 3rd downs. Giving up critical 3rd and 15s on broken running plays to Robinson revealed an unprepared UConn defense. Expect Brian Kelly to focus heavily on containing Denard Robinson - and not being stupid enough to think we can stop him. Giving up short precision throws while keeping him in front of our linebackers as much as possible, is likely the approach the Irish use. Expect some long Michigan drives that eventually stall in the red zone - where the Irish have less field to cover and Robinson has to be more accurate with his passes. How Notre Dame on offense converts in the red zone will be the key to what I expect to be a close game. More to come in the game preview later this week.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Purdue Game Preview
The Brian Kelly era begins Saturday at 330pm ET on NBC against the Boilermakers of Purdue. Typically a new coach is always given some time to get his system in order before the expectations rise; however, many Irish fans see a manageable schedule and a fairly talented roster at BK's disposal, changing things a bit for a hyped up fan base.
No matter which way you slice it, Notre Dame is a more talented team than Pittsburgh. Just ask Scouts, Inc. & ESPN, here. The Irish have the "edge" in 7 of 9 possible categories, and is favored by 11 points. While certainly this game is clearly winnable for Notre Dame, Purdue is still a Big 10 program that was within a field goal and a minute of beating Oregon last year - and actually beat Ohio State by 12. Brian Kelly should win his opener, but he better hope the troops are ready.
The history of this matchup points towards the Irish. The team favored has won by more than 13 points in 6 of the last 7 years - with last years last minute TD by the Irish being the exception. Purdue traditionally has done very poorly in Notre Dame Stadium - winning just twice since 1974. Purdue also has to deal with a new QB making his first road start, as well coach Danny Hope visiting Notre Dame Stadium for the first time.
For Purdue to win . . . turnovers & Marve. Marve will have to play up to his recruiting billing, making plays with his feet and getting the ball to Purdue's strong WR corp. The Boilers will have to win the turnover battle to have a chance in this game - with Marve leading the way.
For Notre Dame to win . . . contain Marve and run the ball. With Purdue losing its top back from last year, as well as its #2 in an offseason injury, the running game likely will not be overpowering. A weakness last year for the Irish was defending the running QB - so lets hope the Irish have fixed the issue with a running QB. Making Marve sit in the pocket and pass should give the Irish some chances to make a big play. Running the ball against Purdue last year was not an issue - so I expect the Irish to have success again on the ground and opening up Brian Kelly's passing game even more.
Brian Kelly teams are not shy or timid - and the offenses go full speed trying to score as quickly as possible. Look for Notre Dame to have control with an early lead - coasting the rest of the game. Winning the turnover battle and special teams game, along with a few big plays from Michael Floyd and the shift slot WR Theo Riddick, will give BK the dominating opening win that he wants. Look for Purdue to have serious issues defending anything Notre Dame does - as well as Notre Dame #2s to get some action.
Original Prediction: ND 34 Purdue 24
Gameweek Prediction: Irish 38 Purdue 20
No matter which way you slice it, Notre Dame is a more talented team than Pittsburgh. Just ask Scouts, Inc. & ESPN, here. The Irish have the "edge" in 7 of 9 possible categories, and is favored by 11 points. While certainly this game is clearly winnable for Notre Dame, Purdue is still a Big 10 program that was within a field goal and a minute of beating Oregon last year - and actually beat Ohio State by 12. Brian Kelly should win his opener, but he better hope the troops are ready.
The history of this matchup points towards the Irish. The team favored has won by more than 13 points in 6 of the last 7 years - with last years last minute TD by the Irish being the exception. Purdue traditionally has done very poorly in Notre Dame Stadium - winning just twice since 1974. Purdue also has to deal with a new QB making his first road start, as well coach Danny Hope visiting Notre Dame Stadium for the first time.
For Purdue to win . . . turnovers & Marve. Marve will have to play up to his recruiting billing, making plays with his feet and getting the ball to Purdue's strong WR corp. The Boilers will have to win the turnover battle to have a chance in this game - with Marve leading the way.
For Notre Dame to win . . . contain Marve and run the ball. With Purdue losing its top back from last year, as well as its #2 in an offseason injury, the running game likely will not be overpowering. A weakness last year for the Irish was defending the running QB - so lets hope the Irish have fixed the issue with a running QB. Making Marve sit in the pocket and pass should give the Irish some chances to make a big play. Running the ball against Purdue last year was not an issue - so I expect the Irish to have success again on the ground and opening up Brian Kelly's passing game even more.
Brian Kelly teams are not shy or timid - and the offenses go full speed trying to score as quickly as possible. Look for Notre Dame to have control with an early lead - coasting the rest of the game. Winning the turnover battle and special teams game, along with a few big plays from Michael Floyd and the shift slot WR Theo Riddick, will give BK the dominating opening win that he wants. Look for Purdue to have serious issues defending anything Notre Dame does - as well as Notre Dame #2s to get some action.
Original Prediction: ND 34 Purdue 24
Gameweek Prediction: Irish 38 Purdue 20
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