This week, safety Harrison Smith described the upcoming game this weekend against Boston College on Saturday night as "Life or Death". Much has been made, both positively and negatively, about this quote. Is this a new attitude, or is it just a platitude? After getting soundly beaten by Stanford last weekend, I hope its the former. All I will say about the Stanford game is that Stanford's physicality will help them go a long way - and that Notre Dame's lack of fire and ability to adjust to a drop 8 defense was upsetting. More on the drop 8 defense later.
Whether this game is life or death, the BC game is certainly the beginning of a winnable streak of games. At BC, then Pitt at home, followed by Western Michigan, Navy, and Tulsa. Would last year's Irish team win 4 or 5 of these games, despite better talent and speed than each of those 5? No. Will this year's team? The answer to that question, in my mind, will give Brian Kelly his first "grade" from Notre Dame fans.
One concerning trend out of the Stanford game was our reaction to Stanford's defensive adjustment to a drop 8 coverage. Stanford played a man to man cover 1 defense early, and Notre Dame marched right down the field. Stanford responded with a defense that they hadn't played in 2 years - a drop 8 zone coverage, where 3 defensive lineman rush, while all 8 other players spread out in a zone, facing the QB. The obvious strength of that defense is defending the long and intermediate passes with max coverage - while the weakness of the defense is against the run. Unfortunately, the Irish were unable to exploit this coverage - looking unprepared and lost offensively for much of the game. Until the Irish can move the ball on this type of defense, expect it more and more. Funny, its very similar to the cover 2 defense that Boston College employs and has employed for many years. Whether the Irish can adjust to this defense - as Brian Kelly has alluded to - will be a major quiz along the path towards Kelly's grade.
The saving grace in this game for the Irish is that Boston College is likely starting a true freshman QB in his first career start Saturday night. After 0 points last week, Boston College's offense is clearly stuck in neutral. When the immobile offense goes up against the charitable defense, who knows what will happen. The Irish have an opportunity to score 24 points and have that potentially be enough - which recently is a rare situation.
Amazingly, the Irish have played quite well on the road the past two seasons - losing but playing arguably better than at home. Given the Boston College offense's troubles, and the Irish hopefully desperate enough for a win, there is no reason the Irish shouldn't win this football game.
Look for Manti Te'o (21 tackles last week) - to have another MONSTER day for the second week in a row against the BC offense, likely with multiple sacks and at least one fumble caused. Expect ugly offense, with the Irish winning this game on defense and special teams - not needing much offense.
IRISH 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 10
(Straight up 2-2, ATS 1-2-1)
Friday, October 1, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
The Cardinal: A Vatican Subordinate
Saturday the Irish play the team that I believe is the best team on their 12 game schedule - the Stanford Cardinal. The Cardinal is #18 in the country, and has killed mediocre competition in 3 games thus far. 35-0 against UCLA, 68-24 over Wake Forest, and a thumping of Sacramento State. At the helm of the Stanford Cardinal is the player Mel Kiper Jr ranks as the #2 ranked player for the NFL Draft (as a sophomore), quarterback Andrew Luck. Understandably the Irish are 6pt underdogs at home.
Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority, with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs). But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played.
So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average. Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense. I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course.
With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.
Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford.
Vatican Smoke Prediction:
IRISH 38 STANFORD 35
(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)
Is Stanford really that good? Their offensive balance is tremendous. They can run the ball with authority, with 242 yards a game on the ground and 233 yards a game passing (10 TDs / 0 INTs). But has Stanford played anyone? Nope. The 35-0 blanking of UCLA and 68-24 thumping of Wake Forest, while impressive, were not against teams in the top half of Div1-A. Notre Dame will be the best team Stanford has played thus far - which could be an advantage given that Notre Dame has played 3 teams likely better than any Stanford has played.
So if Stanford is really good but hasn't played anyone - will they dominate Notre Dame? On offense, I see no way the Irish hold the Cardinal to less than 30pts. Remember that last year, the Cardinal scored 55 against USC in a rout, and then 45 against the Irish for a come from behind 7pt victory. As great as Stanford is offensively - defensively they are nothing more than average. Wake Forest with a freshman QB scored 24 pts against the Cardinal, at Stanford. Last year, the Irish scored 38 against Stanford in a 38-45 loss - including 450 yards of total offense. I expect the Irish to put 30 up on the board as well, barring turnovers of course.
With the Irish and Stanford both scoring 30, what gives? This game is going to come down to the obvious old football cliches: turnovers and the running game. Creating turnovers will be a problem for the Irish if they cannot slow the Cardinal run game. Making the Cardinal pass a few more times, and have longer scoring drives will give the Irish a chance for a turnover or two. The Irish running game will be especially important if the game becomes a shootout yet remains close in the 2nd half - as the Irish run game might become the best defense for Stanford's offense. Brian Kelly does not care about time of possession, but I imagine he will see the benefit on running the ball in the 2nd half. Shorting the game a bit will only had pressure to some of Stanford's late game possessions.
Given the offensive performance of the Irish against the Cardinal last year, I expect the Irish offense to again leverage a talent advantage on offense over Stanford's defense. How the Cardinal responds to some points being on the board (hopefully early), and/or the game being close - that's what we don't know. As good as Stanford is, their coach is nothing short of a firecracker. Seeing him flustered probably will not make Stanford play any looser - likely the opposite. Getting an early lead and keeping the game close will be the best way for the Irish to win this game. Remember that the Irish haven't been beaten by more than a touchdown since November of 2008 against #5 ranked USC (16 games ago) - and last year, the Irish had a chance on the final possession to win each of their 6 losses. I expect a wild shootout, that turns into a real football game in the 4th quarter. Can the Irish make a few more plays? Look for a big 4th quarter stop by the Irish, and a missed field goal late to tie it by Stanford.
Vatican Smoke Prediction:
IRISH 38 STANFORD 35
(Season record straight up 2-1, ATS 0-2-1)
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Faked Out
Another game, another heartbreak. The Irish loss in overtime and in a new fashion to Michigan St on Saturday night, falling 34-31 on a 29 yard fake field goal touchdown in overtime. Even though the playclock read zero as the final play began, no penalty was called - which apparently is the correct call, according to the Big East. I could make endless jokes about the "lag" concept, but am going to leave the whole playclock issue alone. The Irish could have done just 1 thing to have avoided that situation - scored a TD in overtime, defended the fake field goal, or won the game in regulation, so the playclock passing doesn't really bother me. As always, there were mixed emotions following this one.
Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life - we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll - all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.
The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.
The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.
This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.
Many are probably thinking that Brian Kelly hasn't cured the epidemic of losing that has settled in over the Irish football program. If we stopped Michigan on their final drive, and/or if Michigan St had attempted the field goal and missed - would he have cured things then? Just as with nearly all struggles we meet as fans or in life - we must look to the big picture for reassurance. Its been shown repeatedly throughout college football history, that to change a culture of a program - to truly remove the old while laying a completely new and improved foundation - takes a few years. And rarely are there shortcuts. Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll - all very successful college coaches - all had their fewest wins in year 1 at each stop. Does losing in year 1 mean that Brian Kelly will join them in success? Absolutely not. It means we need to look beyond winning or losing, to determine if Brian Kelly really is getting this program back on track. In retrospect, the initial successes experienced by Willingham and Weis crippled their ability - and the ability of fans - to see the long term changes needed in the program. Whether BK is 3-0 or 0-3, keeping the big picture of changing this program for the long term needs to be the goal.
The Irish offense is getting better each week - led by our quarterback of the next 3 years, Dayne Crist. The passing game received a much needed boost with slot receiver Theo Riddick (soph) grabbing 10 passes for 120 yards and a TD. The Irish rarely ran the ball - but had a good bit of success when they did. We see the Irish are going to score near 30pts against most opponents - so long as Dayne Crist is under center. Of course, there are two major knocks I have on the offense. First, the turnovers. The Irish should have scored 21 pts in the first half, turning the ball over twice inside the Michigan St 30. Michael Floyd needs to go see a psychiatrist, because he clearly needs to get his act together mentally. A 6 ft 3 220 pound NFL caliber WR cannot be fumbling every game in the red zone. No excuses. The second major knock is the final offensive play of overtime. The Irish were 3rd and 4, and got a 3yard pass play to Kyle Rudolph - with Michael Floyd wide open 6 yards down the field. Get a first down there and score, then the fake field goal never happens.
The negatives are obvious - we dont have enough playmakers on defense. The rushing defense was fantastic on 80% of the plays, but a few big plays killed the Irish on the ground, yet again. The only good news on defense is that we have a few guys who are making plays, getting better each week. MLB Manti Te'o is living up to his 5 star rating - instinctively breaking up plays more and more often. Its just a matter of time before he pops someone for a big fumble, or picks off a pass himself. CB Gary Gray also is making plays against the pass and in the open field - easily our surest tackler so far this season. Unfortunately, teams are going to pass away from him more and more, with the Irish weakness elsewhere in the secondary.
This week, the Irish are playing what I think is the best team on their schedule this season - the Stanford Cardinal. The Irish are going to have to score a lot on offense, and hope for some big plays or some breaks on defense. Charlie Weis had no problem scoring or keeping any game close; but the lack of defensive adjustments or improvement prevented the Irish from winning. Whether the Irish coaches can patch together a defense thru scheming, adjustments, or just motivation, will determine whether the Irish can beat Stanford, Pitt, BC, and USC. I am hopeful to see a great defensive gameplan this weekend against Andrew Luck and the Cardinal. Preview later this week.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Michigan St Preview
A late game preview from the Vatican for tonights game pitting the Irish against the Spartans up in East Lansing (many of you might get this via email on Sunday, but note that it was submitted at 640pm ET). Here's to my prediction not being accurate.
This series has been crazy, with 8 of the last 12 being decided by 7 points or less. I do not expect this game to be a blowout either way - perhaps another classic in the series. The Spartans have experience at all offensive positions, and a fantastic run game - while the Irish have plenty of offense themselves. On defense, the Spartans have some vulnerability to the pass, but overall have an edge on the Irish defense. Combine that with a rowdy night crowd up in East Lansing, and you have a Spartans team poised to beat up on the Irish on national television.
The last 3 night games in East Lansing have all ended the same way - with an Irish victory. When faced with very difficult circumstances the past few years, the Irish have responded - certainly making most every game close, but not being able to convert the majority of these games into victories. I expect the Irish to make this game close, and whether or not the Irish can get a stop or score late in the game will be the difference or lack of difference in the game. Irish fans long for the day when the Irish close in the 4th quarter - making that big stop or getting that big score that finishes off the opposition.
I am not sure tonight is that night. While I think the game will be close, and I would not be surprised by a sound Irish victory, I think Michigan St's experience will be the difference tonight. Lets hope Im wrong:
Michigan St 31 Notre Dame 27
(record 1-1 straight up, 0-1-1 ATS)
This series has been crazy, with 8 of the last 12 being decided by 7 points or less. I do not expect this game to be a blowout either way - perhaps another classic in the series. The Spartans have experience at all offensive positions, and a fantastic run game - while the Irish have plenty of offense themselves. On defense, the Spartans have some vulnerability to the pass, but overall have an edge on the Irish defense. Combine that with a rowdy night crowd up in East Lansing, and you have a Spartans team poised to beat up on the Irish on national television.
The last 3 night games in East Lansing have all ended the same way - with an Irish victory. When faced with very difficult circumstances the past few years, the Irish have responded - certainly making most every game close, but not being able to convert the majority of these games into victories. I expect the Irish to make this game close, and whether or not the Irish can get a stop or score late in the game will be the difference or lack of difference in the game. Irish fans long for the day when the Irish close in the 4th quarter - making that big stop or getting that big score that finishes off the opposition.
I am not sure tonight is that night. While I think the game will be close, and I would not be surprised by a sound Irish victory, I think Michigan St's experience will be the difference tonight. Lets hope Im wrong:
Michigan St 31 Notre Dame 27
(record 1-1 straight up, 0-1-1 ATS)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Moving Forward
Another tough loss for the Irish against the Wolverines this past weekend, 28-24. Too many tough losses in the past few years unfortunately make this loss blend in with many others. I do think the loss was different, and there are some positives to take away from the game. Whether the Irish can right the ship in the next 4 critical games - night game at Michigan St, vs Stanford, at Boston College, and vs Pitt - all losable - will determine whether these positive signs were in fact reality.
Dayne Crist provides us with a few positives and one major negative. The bad news was that Dayne did not play on 8 of ND 's 15 possessions, as he had "blurred vision and swelling of the face". I want to say he needs to be tougher than that, but no one knows the details of his injury. One major piece of good news was that the Irish were 1 stop, 1 play, or 1 coaching decision away from having a great shot at winning the game - despite only having Crist for 7/15 drives. The Irish only scored with Dayne in the game, as he directed the Irish to scores on 4 of his 7 drives. Certainly with Crist in the game a few more drives, the Irish likely beat Michigan - especially considering 14 of Michigan's points came after turnovers by ND's backup QBs. Dayne's play was not perfect by any stretch, but the Irish look to have an eventual 5 star caliber QB on their hands the next 3 seasons.
Another very refreshing aspect of the game was the 2nd half adjustments and overall defensive play. The Irish did not make the key stop in the 4th quarter that they needed - a common trend with prior years unfortunately. But in limiting the Wolverines to only 7 2nd half points (the final touchdown), the Irish defense gave the offense a chance to take the lead and win the game. One major adjustment I saw while at the game was on the defensive line - as the Irish shifted all 3-4 down lineman towards the strong side of the field just before the snap. The shift gave the offensive line for Michigan some trouble, and it particularly helped the additional blitzing Bob Diaco brought in the 2nd half. Even though Michigan missed a few field goals, the Irish stopped the Wolverines on some big 3rd downs in the 2nd half.
Besides the inability to stop the Wolverines at the end of the game, some of the execution and coaching concerned me a bit. Brian Kelly revealed this week that the defensive backs were lined up to the outside, not the inside as called, on the key 3rd down conversion by Michigan in the 4th. In addition, BK mentioned a few other coverages that were perfectly called but just not executed on that final drive. Maybe the defense was tired, but executing a good play call with the game on the line needs to be an area where we dont make mistakes. The coaching decision I had issue with was not kicking the field goal before halftime, with the Irish on the Wolverine 3 yard line with 3 seconds left. Brian Kelly said he "never considered the field goal" - largely due to his not knowing whether Crist could return to the game. I said it before the play and after, that was a huge mistake - mostly for the fact that Nate Montana, the Irish 3rd string QB, had been erratic at best thus far. Reward your team and take the 3 points there. Those 3 points could have given the Irish a 37 yarder at the end of the game to WIN - had the game proceeded the same way. Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 19 years, so I trust his decisions and realize he makes them with more information and experience than I will ever have. This is just my view from the back row of the stadium.
A good comeback spoiled is all too common - but I think there are some good things brewing. Weis rarely corrected issues that surfaced, or made adjustments during the game or season. The next 4 games will provide us a glimpse as to whether Brian Kelly can reverse this trend.
Dayne Crist provides us with a few positives and one major negative. The bad news was that Dayne did not play on 8 of ND 's 15 possessions, as he had "blurred vision and swelling of the face". I want to say he needs to be tougher than that, but no one knows the details of his injury. One major piece of good news was that the Irish were 1 stop, 1 play, or 1 coaching decision away from having a great shot at winning the game - despite only having Crist for 7/15 drives. The Irish only scored with Dayne in the game, as he directed the Irish to scores on 4 of his 7 drives. Certainly with Crist in the game a few more drives, the Irish likely beat Michigan - especially considering 14 of Michigan's points came after turnovers by ND's backup QBs. Dayne's play was not perfect by any stretch, but the Irish look to have an eventual 5 star caliber QB on their hands the next 3 seasons.
Another very refreshing aspect of the game was the 2nd half adjustments and overall defensive play. The Irish did not make the key stop in the 4th quarter that they needed - a common trend with prior years unfortunately. But in limiting the Wolverines to only 7 2nd half points (the final touchdown), the Irish defense gave the offense a chance to take the lead and win the game. One major adjustment I saw while at the game was on the defensive line - as the Irish shifted all 3-4 down lineman towards the strong side of the field just before the snap. The shift gave the offensive line for Michigan some trouble, and it particularly helped the additional blitzing Bob Diaco brought in the 2nd half. Even though Michigan missed a few field goals, the Irish stopped the Wolverines on some big 3rd downs in the 2nd half.
Besides the inability to stop the Wolverines at the end of the game, some of the execution and coaching concerned me a bit. Brian Kelly revealed this week that the defensive backs were lined up to the outside, not the inside as called, on the key 3rd down conversion by Michigan in the 4th. In addition, BK mentioned a few other coverages that were perfectly called but just not executed on that final drive. Maybe the defense was tired, but executing a good play call with the game on the line needs to be an area where we dont make mistakes. The coaching decision I had issue with was not kicking the field goal before halftime, with the Irish on the Wolverine 3 yard line with 3 seconds left. Brian Kelly said he "never considered the field goal" - largely due to his not knowing whether Crist could return to the game. I said it before the play and after, that was a huge mistake - mostly for the fact that Nate Montana, the Irish 3rd string QB, had been erratic at best thus far. Reward your team and take the 3 points there. Those 3 points could have given the Irish a 37 yarder at the end of the game to WIN - had the game proceeded the same way. Brian Kelly has been a head coach for 19 years, so I trust his decisions and realize he makes them with more information and experience than I will ever have. This is just my view from the back row of the stadium.
A good comeback spoiled is all too common - but I think there are some good things brewing. Weis rarely corrected issues that surfaced, or made adjustments during the game or season. The next 4 games will provide us a glimpse as to whether Brian Kelly can reverse this trend.
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