Falcons' QB Matt Ryan signed an enormous deal yesterday, totaling $72M dollars over 6 years. $34.7M of that is guaranteed. You can read the story here. There are some unhappy veterans that such a young, unproven player can get that much money (i.e. Kevin Mawae). This deal certainly must be placed in the context of a team looking to restore confidence in their QB position, and move on from an embarrassing Michael Vick debacle. Most everyone would agree that this deal is absurd in size and guarantees, considering he is an unproven rookie not named Tom Brady or Peyton Manning.
How good is Matt Ryan? Ever since the Pope saw him play against Notre Dame this past fall, the Vatican's official position is that Ryan has some skills, but could not be anything more than an average NFL QB. However, lets not rely on the Pope's talent evaluation for anything besides clergymen. Lets compare Matt Ryan to another recent college QB and top draft pick - Brady Quinn.
Brady was lauded as the top QB in the 2007 class, while Matt was the top QB in the 2008 class of NFL draftees. Matt was drafted at #3, Brady slipped to #22. Matt was guaranteed $34.5M, while Brady's entire deal was worth between $20-$30M (incentives), with only $7M guaranteed. The difference in $$ and draft position between the two top QBs in their class is nothing less than staggering. So obviously Matt Ryan was considerably better statistically on the field in college? Lets take a look:
Errr . . . did I label the names wrong? This says that Brady had 39 more touchdowns than Matt, with basically the same INTs, and only 250 more pass attempts? Sure does look like the wrong QB got paid.
A few more things to consider in these stats. Both players played very young, starting most of the games in their freshman and sophomore seasons. Brady had a much tougher time in those years, throwing 25 INTS to Ryan's 8. But the next two years tell a different story. Brady only threw 14 interceptions in his jr and sr year combined. Matt Ryan threw 19 his senior year alone. The difference on TDs and QB rating shown above is also staggering. (Stats were obtained from here, here, here, and here)
The Pope is biased to Brady Quinn, obviously. But so are the statistics. Why do so many people think that Matt Ryan is a better prospect than Brady Quinn (I'm looking at you Todd McGay err I mean McShay)? I think its because of the Notre Dame effect. Playing for Notre Dame got Brady too much attention, too quickly, and people simply became tired of Brady and his "golden boy" image. The 2006 season in particular was all the hype you could ever have, with Heisman and National Championship level attention. When he and the Irish fell in large defeats to Michigan, USC, and LSU, the haters cheered, blogged, and wrote very loudly. People forget the amazing records (he holds 28 Notre Dame ones) and statistics (above) and just remembered the fall from Mt. Hype.
Matt Ryan meanwhile had a much slower growth in hype, and never got the level of attention Brady had. In most cases, no one knew who he was until his senior season. He had a very good senior season and was introduced to America as the top QB in college and in the 2007 NFL draft. Without the ND on his jersey, and without all the hype that comes with being a pretty boy Notre Dame quarterback, Matt Ryan was able to withstand finishing his college career with a somewhat disappointing 3-3 record in his final six games. Quite simply, the lack of hype had not created unrealistic expecations or excess exposure for him to be victimized by. Add in a weak QB draft class, and you have a perfect situation for Matty.
People who disagree with me in this debate will always point to Notre Dame's schedule and how Brady played in big games, but they will never point to Notre Dame's (lack of) defense or Matt Ryan's statistics. I don't blame Matt for signing the contract or for capitalizing on timing. I just think Brady was better, will be better, and doesn't deserve some of the hate he gets. So if you start gushing over Matt Ryan, at least give Brady another look.
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