Grizzlies' Draft History

The 2008 NBA Draft is Thursday, June 26th, roughly 4 weeks from now. Most all Grizzlies fans are disappointed in not getting Rose or Beasley; however, fans are slowly beginning to become more optimistic about our pick at #5.

Why the optimism? The unknown will always spark optimism from many. Other than the natural optimists (like me and Randy Quaid in Major League 2), a reason to be excited about our pick is the deep talent in the 2008 draft pool. Chad Ford of ESPN.com, his most recent Mock Draft, has us taking LSU's Anthony Randolph (whom I posted about before the draft lottery here). There have also been mock drafts projecting the Grizz take OJ Mayo. At the end of the day, the right pick is, at best, unclear. Lucky for us, the Grizzlies have a great history of selecting the right players in the draft . . . (thick sarcasm-filled silence). Lets take a look at recent drafting results of the Grizz: (please note, if you do not see spreadsheet table, go to VaticanSmoke.com. Email and RSS viewers might not get spreadsheet in view)



A few notes about the draft data:

• Of the players the Grizzlies drafted above, only the 3 most recent are still with the team. Even 2 of the 3 traded draft picks still have nothing currently represented on the team (Rudy Gay being the exception).






• The biggest story here are the names that the Grizzlies didn't draft. [Unless otherwise mentioned, I only reviewed the 10 picks after the Grizzlies' spot for draft success. These next 10 players were the only realistic/feasible alternatives for the Grizz. Some years, there were even more players in the later first or second rounds] David West instead of Marcus Banks? Amare Stoudemire instead of Drew Gooden? Tony Parker or Gilbert Arenas instead of Jamaal Tinsley? Shane Battier (yes, the beloved Shane) instead of Richard Jefferson? Tough misses. [Yes, Tinsley & Banks were traded - but look who we could have gotten]




• The most recent 3 picks are not "busts" yet. Hakim has made improvements in shooting and rebounding, while Mike Conley has shown promise in his 1 year. Lowry is the closest to a bust, but he is still quite young and capable of a backup point guard role. The term "bust" in regards to an NBA 1st Rounder, in my opinion, is a sliding scale depending on the draft spot. Top 10 draft pick needs to be a starter, spots 10 - 20 a starter or solid role player, and late 1st round just needs to be a role player and help the team. With only 2 rounds a year, there are not going to be many impact players drafted in a given year.






• 2003 was the year of "Lebron" , where the Grizzlies would lose their lottery pick via a trade agreement unless it was #1 overall. Cleveland won out the right to be in the playoffs the next 15 years by drafting Lebron, and Memphis getting the #2 pick meant nothing. Ironically, the Pistons selected Darko Milicic with that pick, and he is currently the Grizz's center. Now he is a bust, but for the Pistons and not (as much) the Grizz.




• The Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins deal to Boston for Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones was complete garbage. Not only considering the players we could have drafted, but losing a solid big body center like Kendrick Perkins makes it twice as foolish. Perkins is exactly what the Grizz still need - a big, youthful body in the middle to anchor a defense [Ironically enough, Kendrick Perkins committed to John Calipari's Tigers out of high school, before entering the NBA draft. Just like Amare Stoudemire, another Tiger commit that jumped straight to the NBA] . Perkins aside, using those picks to select David West and Josh Howard would have put the Grizz solidly in the playoffs last year, easily.






• The best move the Grizz have ever made was trading Shane Battier for Rudy Gay and Stromile Swift. Kudos for a move that is going to pay great dividends, with Rudy Gay now an emerging star and the face of our franchise.

Yes, I know, everyone can play the "Hindsight is 20/20 vision" game. But there is no doubting continued 1st round drafting success leads to playoff and championship caliber teams (i.e. San Antonio). There is also little doubt that continued 1st round drafting mistakes will keep a team in the lottery (i.e. Knicks, Grizzlies). The Grizz have certainly been in the later.

With a new GM (Chris Wallace, my boy) in charge, lets hope our history of botching draft day is changed.