Fisher-Ball

(spreadsheets mentioned in post may not be viewable in email or RSS versions of this post - click the link in those spots, or view the blog site by clicking on the header picture in the email / RSS feed)

Sounds like Vegas money is against the Titans making another playoff appearance in 2008, with odds as the #19 team most likely to win the Super Bowl. Coming off a 10-6 season in 2007, earning a spot as a wild card in the playoffs, many think the young core of the Titans will only improve. Obviously not Vegas.

Most that doubt the Titans point to most glaring weakness on the team - passing offense. Vince Young had a subpar year certainly in 2007. The most surprising thing to many is that the Titans haven't seemed to try and upgrade their passing offense, particularly wide receivers. Despite having a passing offense that finished 27th overall in the league in 2007, the Titans signed no big names at wide out, and did not draft any WRs in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft. Why? Jeff Fisher has shown throughout his career that he doesn't need a top flight passing game or elite WRs to win in the NFL.

Some quick Jeff Fisher facts:

• Born in LA; played college ball for USC (not everyone is perfect)


• Played as a Defensive Back in the NFL, mostly a special teamer


• Background is defense, most of which was learned under Buddy Ryan, whom he played for and coached under


• Named to first head coaching job during the 1994 season, as coach of the Houston Oilers


• Still coach of the same franchise, entering his 14th season (longest tenured coach in NFL, 2nd longest in American pro sports, I believe to only Jerry Sloan of the Utah Jazz [1988])

Jeff Fisher's best teams were defensively strong teams. He's also had some good offensive teams, particularly with Steve McNair at the helm. Here are the seasons that Jeff Fisher's Titans made the playoffs, along with some defensive and passing stats (league ranks based on yards):

The 1999 team went to the Super Bowl, the famous "Music City Miracle" year. The 2000 team was easily the best team Fisher had, tops in the league in defense. Unfortunately that team lost to the Ravens in an ugly playoff game, despite being arguably the league's top team that year. 2002 ended with a lopsided loss in the AFC Championship to the Raiders, and 2003 was a close loss in the divisional round to the Patriots. In 2007, the Chargers sent us packing quickly. So in ranking these teams, I would put them in order of best to worst like this: 2000, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2007.

The common trait on good Jeff Fisher teams is easy to point out - they play defense, and have balance on offense. The passing game doesn't need to be great for Jeff Fisher to have a playoff team. Fisher teams have finished in the top 10 in the league in passing only 3 times (2001, 2003, and 2005). Only 1 of those teams - the 2003 team - went to the playoffs. That year Steve McNair won the MVP of the League, and you can tell that the running game was secondary.

Talk about a telling stat here in the spreadsheet below. Yes, you can argue against the use of attempts as a justifying stat, especially given the late game offense of winning teams being to run the ball. But this is interesting (league ranks):

Maybe this is why the Titans used their first round draft pick to take a RB in 2008 (Chris Johnson), after taking a running back in the 2nd round in both 2006 (Lendale White) and 2007 (Chris Henry). Jeff Fisher knows that running the ball and defense are more important factors to the Titans' winning than passing offense is.

The passing game issues need to be addressed, as 27th in the league just won't cut it. But improving from 27th to 15th (where I think the Titans can really do some damage if the running game and defense remain steady) is not such a leap as many pundits think it is. The next post tomorrow will have a profile of the Titans WR core, which I think will be much improved. I think you'll be surprised this next season at how much production the Titans get from the 11 WRs currently on the roster.