NBA Draft: 8 days & counting . . .

The NBA Draft approaches next Thursday, June 26th. Players have pulled out of the draft and the field is now set. What will the Grizz do with the 5th and 28th picks? Here is a plan and simple layout of what to look for.

In a previous post, I discussed how a trade to Miami for Beasley is a possibility, but seemingly only if we can draft OJ Mayo at #5. Word out of Miami is that OJ Mayo is who they really want, and they would be interested in trading with whomever drafts him. Miami knows Beasley is the 2nd most coveted player in the draft, and thus not drafting him at their #2 spot would be leaving value on the table. The ideal scenario for the Grizz is to have OJ Mayo available at #5.

It looks more and more like Minnesota, who picks at #3, will take Mayo, at least according to Chad Ford's new mock draft 5.0. Yes, there has been chatter about Minnesota GM Kevin McHale loving his tall white brethren Kevin Love. I think the Love to Minnesota talk is a smokescreen, and Minnesota will take Mayo. Most of the opinions coming out at this point are intentional leaks intended to manipulate trades in some form or fashion. Additionally I think its clear that Mayo is the #3 player in the draft, and that Minnesota will take the best player available rather than filling a more pressing need.

So lets simplify the draft - we assume Rose and Beasley are going #1 and #2. Then we are assuming, although hoping not, that OJ Mayo is selected at #3 by the Timberwolves. Seattle at #4 has been eying Bayless as they need a PG desperately, so there really hasn't been much talk about whom they will pick. That leaves the Grizz at #5. Here are really the only logical options:

• Kevin Love (UCLA)


• Eric Gordon (Indiana)


• Danilo Gallinari (Italy) - pictured
  
• Anthony Randolph (LSU)
  
• Brook Lopez (Stanford)

You can read profiles on these players in Ford's mock draft, and I'm certainly no scout. Ive also linked all the players above and below to their draft profile on NBA Draft net.

At the Grizzlies second 1st round pick (at #28), here are some players that have been mentioned. I'm sure there are plenty of other names out there, as its hard to predict who will be on the board at #28, unlike #5:

• Courtney Lee (Western Kentucky)


• Bill Walker (Kansas State) (note - coming off knee injury)


• Chris Douglas Roberts (Memphis)
  
• Joey Dorsey (Memphis)
  
• DJ White (Indiana)
  
• JJ Hickson (NC State) (pictured)
  

The Grizzlies have two major needs in my opinion, and they are both equally important:

1. Perimeter guard/small forward player that can defend, and be an offensive threat to take some pressure off Rudy Gay.


2. Interior toughness, aka rebounding and defense. Any offense down low is a bonus.

Now lets play GM. One key ingredient to picking at #5 is knowing what you can get with your later picks. Why pick a PF if there are many that will be available later, with minimal dropoff? Simple supply and demand. Rating all the players in the draft, to assess all of your picks from one vantage point, is the key to a balanced draft. So we've seen the available players and the team needs. Now lets try to envision draft scenarios for the Grizz, while trying to assess the dropoff from whats available at #5 to #28 (again, assuming Mayo is gone):

Scenario 1 - Draft Kevin Love at #5, then get a perimeter guy at #28, either Courtney Lee or CDR.

Scenario 2 - Draft Eric Gordon at #5, then DJ White, Hickson, or Dorsey at #28.

Scenario 3 - Draft Brook Lopez at #5, then the best of the PFs in scenario #2 available at #28

Which scenario is more likely? Hard to say. I think Kevin Love is the likely pick for the Grizz at #5, based on the early and continued buzz. However, I don't think perimeter players Lee or CDR will be available for the Grizz at #28, really forcing the Grizz to draft another power forward. Given that wing and perimeter impact players are not going to be available come the 2nd pick, I think we must address the perimeter need at #5 then get one of many decent power forwards that will be available at #28.

To me, its simple - the value of perimeter help is higher in this year's draft, due to the scarcity of perimeter impact players and the abundance of power forward and center help.

Given the cards the Grizz have, with Mayo gone at #3 and perimeter help being scarce late in the 1st round, I would draft Eric Gordon at #5, and DJ White at #28. Gordon is a great athlete that can drive and shoot, while DJ White epitomizes toughness in the middle. Both have much to prove, but I think they would be hungry to work hard in Memphis. There are plenty of Hoosier fans that would enjoy that as well.

Chris Wallace is a smart guy, and he has done this many times before. Certainly things are not as simple as I propose. In the NFL, where every team has multiple picks, finding value in each round is the name of the game. Hopefully the Grizz will do the same, really figuring out what they can pick at #28 before they decide on whom to pick at #5.