Transitions

Last night, the Grizzlies drafted Kevin Love at #5, and then Donte Green at #28. I posted my thoughts on the blog below, and then went to bed like most Memphis fans, thinking the Grizz roster just got two iffy players and no real sparkle.

Waking up Christmas morning is nice, but this morning was darn close. During the night (at about 1145pm last night) the Grizz traded Kevin Love to the Timberwolves for OJ Mayo (drafted #3), among other players. And right before that deal, the Grizz traded Donte Greene to Houston for Darrell Arthur (drafted at #27, power forward from Kansas). The Mayo trade also helped us by getting rid of Brian Cardinal and, unfortunately, Mike Miller. We got some solid veterans though in return in Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, and Greg Buckner. Read about the deals in short articles here, here, and here. That first headline in the Sacramento paper is awesome!

My dad wears transitions. You know, the glasses that transition to a darker tint, like sunglasses, when the sun shines upon them. I couldn't help but think of them and laugh, as I read the postings on the Grizzlies draft article on Commercial Appeal.com, the Memphis newspaper. 173 comments from 4pm yesterday until right now (~10am Friday). My father would be proud of the transition that I spotted in these posts, which went from hopeful to excited to angry to denial to absolute joy. These comments, along with their time stamps, tell a better story than I ever could. Its a bit long, but incredibly entertaining. I have even given my subtitles in red to guide you through the emotions:

Optimism

Posted by Sandman35739 on June 26, 2008 at 5:08 p.m. (Suggest removal)
If the Grizzlies end up picking Kevin Love I think I will vomit.
Make a deal, any deal, but don't sign Love.

Posted by Rees901 on June 26, 2008 at 5:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
no trade rumor i have read involving the grizz has been favorable for us. is wallace really that stupid??!!

Posted by ricksiders on June 26, 2008 at 5:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
There is absolutely nothing wrong with Love; and in fact, the guy fits a VERY big need for the Grizzlies...Power Forward. In addition, the guy is ready to contribute, and there is no doubt in my mind that he will put up 16ppg and 10rpg NEXT year! The Grizzlies need to get tough, and they need to play defense. What better way to do this than with the 19 year old from UCLA that has always been, and will continue to be, a winner!

Anger

Posted by Sandman35739 on June 26, 2008 at 7:07 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I can't believe they took Love.
Remind me not to order season tickets next year.

Posted by sputnik7 on June 26, 2008 at 7:23 p.m. (Suggest removal)
For the second year in a row Wallace plays it safe and boring. No guts no glory. This will be a super boring team. Seattle makes the gutsy pick and it will pay off. What a frigging let down!!! Go from the best player in the draft to the most boring! So much for trying to win fans!! Man, will this organization ever get it right???CW for dog catcher!!!

Posted by tigerlegacy on June 26, 2008 at 7:35 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Kevin "Big Country" Love? What a joke. Dorsey exposed him like every athlete in the NBA will. Didn't we just get rid of a big soft guy with "great" basketball skills that was a few inches taller than Love.
I can't wait to hear Ron Tillery try and spin another terrible move by the Griz.
Heisley needs to sell to the local ownership or take this terrible franchise to the Chicago suburbs so that they can be the Clippers of the Midwest.
What a joke!

A little bit of hope . . .

Posted by Sandman35739 on June 26, 2008 at 8:40 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Eight picks to go in the First Round and CDR is still available. Somebody is going to get a steal.

Posted by Sandman35739 on June 26, 2008 at 9:09 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
Pick #28 is up and CDR is still available!
If the Grizzlies don't blow this pick I might even forgive them for taking Love.

Posted by dwcoyote on June 26, 2008 at 9:12 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
CDR, CDR, CDR, CDR, come on Grizzlies!!!!!

More Anger

Posted by lcsteven on June 26, 2008 at 9:17 p.m. (Suggest removal)
They scr*wed the pooch by not taking CDR.

Posted by brad on June 26, 2008 at 9:26 p.m. (Suggest removal)
UN ........ REALDo the Griz NEVER WANT TO SELL ANOTHER TICKET???
I can't BELIEVE the stupidity of this organization.
You pass on CDR at #28?You take that BLEEPING pick just to get a**es in that building!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What an embarrassment.Clearly there are no intelligent decision makers in our front offices.
HEY GRIZ - YOU JUST DROVE THE NAILS IN YOUR OWN COFFIN.

Posted by dafranchise1 on June 26, 2008 at 9:27 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
F*** The Memphis Grizzlies. How in the hell do you not select Chris Douglass Roberts ? Now i'm thinking CDR coming out early was a bad move. It is a shame how some of the garbage in the drafte are getting drafted before him.

Posted by krc00d on June 26, 2008 at 9:28 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Folks, wait for the trade. This is called snagging an extra piece. Greene was rated much higher than CDR, however silly that may be. Now the Griz can use him as trade bait to get 2 picks later in the draft or an extra player instead of just 1 overrated rookie (Greene).

Posted by starforce on June 26, 2008 at 11:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I now see why Boston could never do much with Chris Wallace running the show. Why oh why did the Grizzlies hire this idiot!

The Tide begins to turn . . .

Posted by krc00d on June 26, 2008 at 11:30 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Darrell Arthur is on the way to Memphis in exchange for Greene and a 2nd round pick next year. Given he was rated much higher than Greene on most charts, he could be a steal for the Grizzlies.

Posted by l_cbrown on June 26, 2008 at 11:44 p.m. (Suggest removal)
ESPN just reported OJ, Antione Walker to Memphis for Love, Miller, Cardinal

Posted by Memphis_Hotboy36 on June 26, 2008 at 11:45 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
ESPN just reported that we traded Kevin Love, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins to Minnesota for OJ Mayo, Marco Jarric (sp), Greg Buckner and Antonie Walker...not sure if I like this deal or not!

Kool-Aid Time . . . Jump for Joy

Posted by l_cbrown on June 26, 2008 at 11:46 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
Future best backcourt in the league

Posted by krc00d on June 26, 2008 at 11:46 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
Grizzlies have traded Kevin Love, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Jason Collins to the Timberwolves for OJ Mayo, Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, and Greg Buckner.

Posted by xds4life on June 26, 2008 at 11:49 p.m. (

Suggest removal)
O.J. Mayo!!!!

Posted by l_cbrown on June 27, 2008 at midnight (Suggest removal)
Awesome trade, Cardinal's (what is it 9mill salary is gone) and they get a future Allstar in Mayo.....and yes he will be an Allstar!!!!!!

Posted by XYZMemphis on June 27, 2008 at 1:15 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Chris Wallace proved his expertise with this trade. Are all the morons out there still trying to wake up and smell the coffee! Starting line up of Conley, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Darrell Arthur and Darko/Marc Gasol. Plus the 6th Man of the Year with Hakeem off the bench for instant buckets.
Remember, people, O.J. plays some hard-nosed defense, too. I am SOOO glad to get rid of Miller, who freezes up in the playoffs. Ha-ha, Minnesota, did you not know that? Oh, well, you won't be in the playoffs before the Grizzlies anyway!
We won't make the playoffs next year, but only because we will be so ridiculously young. But we will be exciting to watch and by the end of the year we will be beating a lot of playoff-bound teams! GIve this nucleus two or three years, plugging holes along the way, and we will finally win a playoff game and even a playoff series!

Posted by karma8 on June 27, 2008 at 7:13 a.m. (Suggest removal)
OMG!!! YESSSSSSS!!!! CW you're a genius!!!! Great great Deal!!!! Dude you rock!!! Mayo!! I cant believe it!! And they got rid to the albatross, Cardinal!!!!! Yes!!!!!!

More Drama coming?

Posted by Stbrjones on June 27, 2008 at 7:29 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I bet this isnt the end, I see a trade with Mayo going to Miami for Beasley.
Be on the lookout for it to happen any moment

Sorry if that was a bit long for you, but I was incredibly entertained.

More to come on the trade specifics later. But right now, a big kudos to Chris Wallace for taking a great chance on some talent. As I said in earlier posts, the Grizz have two major problems - a need for a perimeter player and defender to compliment Rudy Gay - and a power forward rebounder. I think we addressed both in OJ Mayo and Darrell Arthur.

And yes, there is a chance the Grizz will trade Mayo to Miami for Beasley. I don't know how much of a chance, but I'm sure they are talking/have talked. So stay tuned . . .

NBA Draft: 8 days & counting . . .

The NBA Draft approaches next Thursday, June 26th. Players have pulled out of the draft and the field is now set. What will the Grizz do with the 5th and 28th picks? Here is a plan and simple layout of what to look for.

In a previous post, I discussed how a trade to Miami for Beasley is a possibility, but seemingly only if we can draft OJ Mayo at #5. Word out of Miami is that OJ Mayo is who they really want, and they would be interested in trading with whomever drafts him. Miami knows Beasley is the 2nd most coveted player in the draft, and thus not drafting him at their #2 spot would be leaving value on the table. The ideal scenario for the Grizz is to have OJ Mayo available at #5.

It looks more and more like Minnesota, who picks at #3, will take Mayo, at least according to Chad Ford's new mock draft 5.0. Yes, there has been chatter about Minnesota GM Kevin McHale loving his tall white brethren Kevin Love. I think the Love to Minnesota talk is a smokescreen, and Minnesota will take Mayo. Most of the opinions coming out at this point are intentional leaks intended to manipulate trades in some form or fashion. Additionally I think its clear that Mayo is the #3 player in the draft, and that Minnesota will take the best player available rather than filling a more pressing need.

So lets simplify the draft - we assume Rose and Beasley are going #1 and #2. Then we are assuming, although hoping not, that OJ Mayo is selected at #3 by the Timberwolves. Seattle at #4 has been eying Bayless as they need a PG desperately, so there really hasn't been much talk about whom they will pick. That leaves the Grizz at #5. Here are really the only logical options:

• Kevin Love (UCLA)


• Eric Gordon (Indiana)


• Danilo Gallinari (Italy) - pictured
  
• Anthony Randolph (LSU)
  
• Brook Lopez (Stanford)

You can read profiles on these players in Ford's mock draft, and I'm certainly no scout. Ive also linked all the players above and below to their draft profile on NBA Draft net.

At the Grizzlies second 1st round pick (at #28), here are some players that have been mentioned. I'm sure there are plenty of other names out there, as its hard to predict who will be on the board at #28, unlike #5:

• Courtney Lee (Western Kentucky)


• Bill Walker (Kansas State) (note - coming off knee injury)


• Chris Douglas Roberts (Memphis)
  
• Joey Dorsey (Memphis)
  
• DJ White (Indiana)
  
• JJ Hickson (NC State) (pictured)
  

The Grizzlies have two major needs in my opinion, and they are both equally important:

1. Perimeter guard/small forward player that can defend, and be an offensive threat to take some pressure off Rudy Gay.


2. Interior toughness, aka rebounding and defense. Any offense down low is a bonus.

Now lets play GM. One key ingredient to picking at #5 is knowing what you can get with your later picks. Why pick a PF if there are many that will be available later, with minimal dropoff? Simple supply and demand. Rating all the players in the draft, to assess all of your picks from one vantage point, is the key to a balanced draft. So we've seen the available players and the team needs. Now lets try to envision draft scenarios for the Grizz, while trying to assess the dropoff from whats available at #5 to #28 (again, assuming Mayo is gone):

Scenario 1 - Draft Kevin Love at #5, then get a perimeter guy at #28, either Courtney Lee or CDR.

Scenario 2 - Draft Eric Gordon at #5, then DJ White, Hickson, or Dorsey at #28.

Scenario 3 - Draft Brook Lopez at #5, then the best of the PFs in scenario #2 available at #28

Which scenario is more likely? Hard to say. I think Kevin Love is the likely pick for the Grizz at #5, based on the early and continued buzz. However, I don't think perimeter players Lee or CDR will be available for the Grizz at #28, really forcing the Grizz to draft another power forward. Given that wing and perimeter impact players are not going to be available come the 2nd pick, I think we must address the perimeter need at #5 then get one of many decent power forwards that will be available at #28.

To me, its simple - the value of perimeter help is higher in this year's draft, due to the scarcity of perimeter impact players and the abundance of power forward and center help.

Given the cards the Grizz have, with Mayo gone at #3 and perimeter help being scarce late in the 1st round, I would draft Eric Gordon at #5, and DJ White at #28. Gordon is a great athlete that can drive and shoot, while DJ White epitomizes toughness in the middle. Both have much to prove, but I think they would be hungry to work hard in Memphis. There are plenty of Hoosier fans that would enjoy that as well.

Chris Wallace is a smart guy, and he has done this many times before. Certainly things are not as simple as I propose. In the NFL, where every team has multiple picks, finding value in each round is the name of the game. Hopefully the Grizz will do the same, really figuring out what they can pick at #28 before they decide on whom to pick at #5.

Grizzlies' Draft History

The 2008 NBA Draft is Thursday, June 26th, roughly 4 weeks from now. Most all Grizzlies fans are disappointed in not getting Rose or Beasley; however, fans are slowly beginning to become more optimistic about our pick at #5.

Why the optimism? The unknown will always spark optimism from many. Other than the natural optimists (like me and Randy Quaid in Major League 2), a reason to be excited about our pick is the deep talent in the 2008 draft pool. Chad Ford of ESPN.com, his most recent Mock Draft, has us taking LSU's Anthony Randolph (whom I posted about before the draft lottery here). There have also been mock drafts projecting the Grizz take OJ Mayo. At the end of the day, the right pick is, at best, unclear. Lucky for us, the Grizzlies have a great history of selecting the right players in the draft . . . (thick sarcasm-filled silence). Lets take a look at recent drafting results of the Grizz: (please note, if you do not see spreadsheet table, go to VaticanSmoke.com. Email and RSS viewers might not get spreadsheet in view)



A few notes about the draft data:

• Of the players the Grizzlies drafted above, only the 3 most recent are still with the team. Even 2 of the 3 traded draft picks still have nothing currently represented on the team (Rudy Gay being the exception).






• The biggest story here are the names that the Grizzlies didn't draft. [Unless otherwise mentioned, I only reviewed the 10 picks after the Grizzlies' spot for draft success. These next 10 players were the only realistic/feasible alternatives for the Grizz. Some years, there were even more players in the later first or second rounds] David West instead of Marcus Banks? Amare Stoudemire instead of Drew Gooden? Tony Parker or Gilbert Arenas instead of Jamaal Tinsley? Shane Battier (yes, the beloved Shane) instead of Richard Jefferson? Tough misses. [Yes, Tinsley & Banks were traded - but look who we could have gotten]




• The most recent 3 picks are not "busts" yet. Hakim has made improvements in shooting and rebounding, while Mike Conley has shown promise in his 1 year. Lowry is the closest to a bust, but he is still quite young and capable of a backup point guard role. The term "bust" in regards to an NBA 1st Rounder, in my opinion, is a sliding scale depending on the draft spot. Top 10 draft pick needs to be a starter, spots 10 - 20 a starter or solid role player, and late 1st round just needs to be a role player and help the team. With only 2 rounds a year, there are not going to be many impact players drafted in a given year.






• 2003 was the year of "Lebron" , where the Grizzlies would lose their lottery pick via a trade agreement unless it was #1 overall. Cleveland won out the right to be in the playoffs the next 15 years by drafting Lebron, and Memphis getting the #2 pick meant nothing. Ironically, the Pistons selected Darko Milicic with that pick, and he is currently the Grizz's center. Now he is a bust, but for the Pistons and not (as much) the Grizz.




• The Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins deal to Boston for Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones was complete garbage. Not only considering the players we could have drafted, but losing a solid big body center like Kendrick Perkins makes it twice as foolish. Perkins is exactly what the Grizz still need - a big, youthful body in the middle to anchor a defense [Ironically enough, Kendrick Perkins committed to John Calipari's Tigers out of high school, before entering the NBA draft. Just like Amare Stoudemire, another Tiger commit that jumped straight to the NBA] . Perkins aside, using those picks to select David West and Josh Howard would have put the Grizz solidly in the playoffs last year, easily.






• The best move the Grizz have ever made was trading Shane Battier for Rudy Gay and Stromile Swift. Kudos for a move that is going to pay great dividends, with Rudy Gay now an emerging star and the face of our franchise.

Yes, I know, everyone can play the "Hindsight is 20/20 vision" game. But there is no doubting continued 1st round drafting success leads to playoff and championship caliber teams (i.e. San Antonio). There is also little doubt that continued 1st round drafting mistakes will keep a team in the lottery (i.e. Knicks, Grizzlies). The Grizz have certainly been in the later.

With a new GM (Chris Wallace, my boy) in charge, lets hope our history of botching draft day is changed.

Grizzlies Update - Roundtable with the Pope

The Pope has been doing more Holy things than blogging about the Memphis Grizzlies.However, the Pope recently had an opportunity to have a roundtable with a few Grizzlies insiders. Check it out:

THE POPE >> Thank you all for coming and being in my prescence to discuss the Memphis Grizzlies.

Jerry West, Chris Wallace, Pau Gasol, and Michael Heisley >> Thank you, your eminence (all together)

THE POPE >> Well, first thing is first. Who can explain the team's 10-27 start, the 4th worst record in the league.

ALL >> (silence)

THE POPE >> Well, since no one will step up, I will ask the owner of the team, Michael Heisley. Why the bad start?

Mike Heisley >> I cant figure it out. We have the premier player in the NBA in Pau Gusole, is that how you say his name? Gausel? Whatever his name is. He's so good in the paint that we aren't trading him unless Kobe or Lebron is involved in the deal.

THE POPE >> I doubt the player's name is Gusole or Gausel, and I also doubt that he is very good if you cannot even properly pronounce his name. Your team has other problems as well obviously.

Mike Heisley >> I'm still not trading him.

THE POPE >> Ok, moving along. Jerry West, do you have any thoughts to add?

Jerry West >> I tried to trade Pau Gasol about 20 times in my last two years in Memphis. There were some deals with Chicago nearly done, as well as some deals with the Clippers. Heck, I even had him traded back to Spain for two gallons of Sangria, but Heisley pulled the plug on every deal . . .

Pau Gasol >> Hayyyyyy, thats not fai . . .

Jerry West >> Pau, shut your mouth and sit down! Your eminence, Pau is a big part of the problem, but he's not the only reason.

THE POPE >> What other reasons are there Jerry?

Jerry West >> Brian Cardinal is a premier player in this league, but he hasnt played like it yet in the last 3 years. I know he is though. And we miss Eddie Jones, another premier player in the league.

THE POPE >> I haven't heard of either of them, so again, I doubt they are that good Mr. West. I assume you didnt sign either of these players to long term deals if they are no good?

Jerry West >> (silence) . . . Dont you think thats a bit like answering the question, "When did you stop beating your wife?" ?

THE POPE >> Perhaps. I think you have answered the question already though. Now, on to the current GM, Chris Wallace. Please shed some light on the subject of the Grizzlies.

Chris Wallace >> Mr. West, is it ok if I speak? (wispered) . . . ok . . . Your eminence, I think the move that Jerr . . .err, I mean I made to sign Darko Milicic is a big reason why this team is headed in the right direction.

THE POPE >> Right Direction? Mr. Wallace, is Hell a destination that you would consider "right"?

Chris Wallace >> HAHAHAHHA, good one your eminence. Uh, em, I think that the Grizzlies are getting better with Rudy Gay leading our team in scoring at 19 points per game.

THE POPE >> Im sure this Gay player is fantastic and happy likely. But is 2-8 in your last 10 games really getting better? Why can't someone simply answer my initial question, Why the bad start? Maybe I should just ask the three random Grizz fans I have waiting outside in the corridor.

Wallace, West, Gasol, Heisley >> NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE POPE >> Send the three fans in.

(3 fans enter the room)

THE POPE >> I have brought you each here to answer the question, why has the Memphis Grizzlies gotten off to such a bad start this season?

Fan #1 >> Pau sucks

Fan #2 >> Pau sucks

Fan #3 >> Pau sucks

Pau Gasol >> HaAYYY!!! I bust by butt for you guys . . .

Jerry West >> Shut up Pau, they're right.


Well, there you have it folks.

There are numerous things wrong with the Grizzlies. I think Pau is a factor certainly. He is fine offensively, but his defense is absolutely killing this team on the interior. He just doesn't work in the Iavaroni (or Calipari) style of basketball. Brian Cardinal may have been the worst signing in the history of the NBA. Milicic is not rebounding like we had hoped, only averaging 6 per game despite his 7 foot frame. Rudy Gay and Mike Miller are this team, but with only one player playing decent defense, averaging 100 per game means nothing, cuz we are averaging giving up 104.

Lets hope in the second half, that we can trade Pau, and Darko can improve, along with all our young guys (Lowry, Conley Jr., Gay, Hakim Warrick). If we can somehow get to 30 wins for the season (essentially going .500 the rest of the way) it would be a miracle. Im predicting 25-57 record, bettering last years by 3 games (>10%).

Out of Hibernation - Memphis Grizzlies

The NBA 2007-08 season kicked off in the middle of last week, starting a very long 82 game season that will go through April 2008. The Memphis Grizzlies are the Pope's hometown NBA team, and had their home opener on Wednesday night against the San Antonio Spurs.

Opening night was exciting, despite the Grizz losing by 3 points to the defending world champions. Now the Grizz sit at 0-2, which has fizzled any initial excitement, and put fans in Memphis back to their expected, "wait and see mode". I am hoping fans stay excited but more importantly, stay patient and realistic. Improving our win total by 50% would be great right? Yet this would still not get us into the playoffs. We need to make strides and contend nightly before we can get into the playoffs and do some damage. Now on for the off-season review.

Off-Season Review

Coming off the worst record in the league last season, the Grizzlies are seeing season season ticket sales and attendance drop tremendously. Another season like last year could really hurt the financial viability of this team, already in a small market. This offseason was probably the most important ever for this franchise, which needed to replace a coach, GM, and draft a lottery pick, on top of signing a few players. Now on for the Pope's "grades". Take this with a grain of salt and some holy water, because obviously the scores are very premature at this point.

New Coach --> Marc Iavaroni - I love this guy. He is disciplined with his players, but at the same time, he is not an old school tough guy thats all hot air. He is very well liked by his players, but still a disciplinarian, which is a difficult combination. It will take time to get this team more organized on offense, more capable of pushing the ball upcourt, and more disciplined defensively, which seem to be his three tenants thus far. A former assistant from Phoenix, he seems to have what it takes to be a successful coach. Pope's Grade: A-

New GM --> Chris Wallace - He seems fine. Im not overly excited or disappointed with him, just lukewarm. I think he will largely be defined by Darko and Mike Conley Jr, as well as other players he signs in his first two years. He came from the Boston Celtics, who have been awful for a long time. Hopefully he was learning what decisions not to make. Pope's Grade: B-

Lottery Pick --> Mike Conley Jr - He was a good consolation prize after Memphis lost out on the draft pick lottery and fell to the #4 pick, despite having the best chance in the league for the top pick. Mike is a very in control and classic point guard - pass first, shoot second. His complete game is going to need the addition of more physical play and better shooting. Right now, he has the quickness, vision, and passing skills needed to be an elite point guard. We'll see. Pope's Grade: B+

New Big Man --> Darko Milicic - Darko is a big fella, and a much different player than my initial impressions of him coming out in the 2003 NBA Draft at the #2 overall pick. I thought he was another Dirk, a big guy who could handle the ball and shoot. In reality, he is a big body that is much thicker, bigger, and stronger than Pau Gasol, and gives us the physical prescence we need. I think if he gets 10 pts and 10 boards a night, as well as a block or two and some defensive stops, we will be getting what we need from him. He played great defense on Tim Duncan on opening night, but has an issue with taking plays off apparently. Hopefully he will mature and know his role, which is to be a defender and rebounder first. Pope's Grade: B

In short, I think the offseason was a success. Questions remain about our team defense, which has been not much better than last year's disastrous effort. We need more consistency offensively, as we certainly have scorers. However, I think its going to take a season for everything to come together, and this team to really learn how to win. My prediction is 35-47 as the Grizz record, improving by about 50%. I think we are one player an maturation of a few young guys away from being a contender. But isn't every NBA team?