2009 Season Prediction

The season is upon us, and most college football fans can barely contain the excitement. I cannot remember an opening weekend with so many interesting games: Oklahoma St hosts Georgia, Alabama vs Virginia Tech, BYU vs Oklahoma, Oregon vs Boise St (tonight). And then of course Notre Dame opening up with Nevada (2:30pm central, NBC), with the Irish being two touchdown favorites over the #3 ranked rushing team in the country of 2008.

Its prediction time - with this year's theme being the same here at Vatican Smoke as it is for Charlie Weis and the Irish - "Don't Tell Me, Show Me". While Coach Weis won't predict anything, here is our first prediction: 2009 will be an memorable season for the Irish football team and fans. Either we watch our program turn the corner and begin a run of sustained success, or we get saddled with another rebuilding project and a new coach. It feels as though either of these outcomes are more likely than a run of the mill 7-5 season.

Now onto the specifc wins and losses. Each week, we will have an opponent specific preview with more details. Here is a quick rundown of how we here at Vatican Smoke think the season will play out:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - W
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - L
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L
• Oct 26th - Boston College - W
• Oct 31st - Wash St (in San Antonio) - W
• Nov 7th - Navy - W
• Nov 14th - @ Pittsburgh - W
• Nov 21st - UConn - W
• Nov 28th - @ Stanford - L

• Overall Record: 9-3
• Bowl Game: Gator Bowl
• Opponent: North Carolina
• Bowl Game Score: ND 34 UNC 27
• Final Record: 10-3
• Final Ranking: #12 in the AP, #13 in the Coaches Poll

• Offensive MVP: Jimmy Clausen (Jr QB)
• Defensive MVP: Brian Smith (Jr Weakside LB)
• Best Freshman: Theo Reddick (Freshman return man & scatback RB)
• Special Teams MVP: Nick Tausch (Freshman Kicker)
• Most Improved: Armando Allen (Jr RB)

10-3 with a bowl victory in a New Years Day bowl. A solid season, but short of the BCS. Inconsistency will be the reason the Irish fall in very close losses to Michigan St, USC, and Stanford on a last second field goal. However, the Irish will greatly improve in turnovers and rushing offense. And finally the Irish will learn to beat down weaker competition. Only a few costly INTs by Jimmy Clausen, as well as the defense being unable to seal the deal, will hurt the Irish in their 3 close losses. USC loses the total offense battle against the Irish, but Pete Carroll's defense finds a way to make a big play in the 4th quarter. Michigan St beats up on the turnover prone Irish early, withstanding a solid comeback bid that falls short. Stanford outplays the complacent Irish in the 4th quarter, winning by a last second field goal. Sentiment heading into the offseason will be saved by the bowl game performance against a solid North Carolina squad. The "hot seat" talk about Charlie's job slows down to a drip, and recruiting gains even more momentum.

One last tidbit about the season that I found interesting - The great Notre Dame blog, Blue Gray Sky, last year compared Weis's 4 year coaching career to the standard 5 act dramatic structure of a play. Acts 1 and 2 were the "exposition" and "rising action of the hero" (2005-2006). Act 3 was the climax or turning point (2007). Act 4 was the "falling action" (2008). What will Act 5 be? Catastrophy (Tragedy) or Resolution (Comedy)? Enjoy Act 5, and check back on Friday for the Nevada game preview.