Ty Bowl 2 - Preview

ND @ Washington

 

Saturday, 7pm Central time, ESPN 2 National Coverage

 

I hate to call this game the Ty Bowl. In all honesty, I harbor no resentment for Willingham, like many message board warriors out there. He was not the right fit for ND, and in all actuality is not a good football coach. Luckily we saw that and cut the cord early, because I cannot imagine where our program would be if Ty had been allowed to stay another year or two. The recruiting he didn't do is not the only reason, but was a significant factor in the 2007 season. But I digress . . .

 

Willingham is on his way out, and a knockout blow could be delivered by the Irish on Saturday. However, this game is not about Willingham or Weis and the jobs they have done. Willingham has clearly failed, and the jury is still out on Weis but signs are point up. This game is about a young ND team trying to win on the road for the first time this season. Both road games thus far have been at ranked opponents. While competitive in both games, the Irish came up short, largely on youth and immaturity instead of talent in the eyes of many. Can the Irish close out a game on the road? Can the Irish avoid road turnovers (8 in 2 road games this year)?

 

On top of the whether a young ND team can win on the road, the fact is that this Washington team is awful. Likely the worst team the Irish will play this season, except for possibly Syracuse. Here is a quick summary of Washington's rankings in NCAA Div 1-A statistics (out of 119 teams)  -  I got all these from a cool NCAA stats website, very easy to use:

• Passing offense  -  Washington is 57th at 217 yards per game; Irish are 17th nationally at 272 yards per game
• Rushing offense  -  Washington is 106th with 103 ypg; Irish are 108th with 101 ypg
• Pass defense  -  Washington is 98th with 250 ypg given up; Irish are 87th with 231 ypg
• Rush defense  -  Washington is 115th at 233 ypg; Irish are 60th at 136 ypg
• Points scored  -  Washington is 108th at 17.7 ppg; Irish are 62nd at 25.5 ppg
• Points given up  -  Washington is 115th at 40.7ppg; Irish are 41st with 20.7ppg

Wow. Washington is an awful football team. Their rushing offense is 106th, and their rushing defense is awful at 115th. Pass defense is 98th for Washington, going against the 17th best passing offense in the country in the Irish. Washing is giving up 40.7 points per game . . . and only scoring 17.7pts per game. They are 0 and 6, so I guess I should not be surprised.

 

I look for the Irish offense to have a field day against Washington, assuming they can take care of the ball. I hope that we start the game passing, and then once they step back to defend the pass, then we run the ball. Similar to the North Carolina game, which was a fantastic offensive display except for turnovers. Here are a few predictions for you:

• Prediction 1  >>  Jimmy will throw for 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and the biggie - ZERO interceptions.
• Prediction 2  >>  The Irish will finish with 500 yards total offense, 310 in the air and 190 on the ground.
• Prediction 3  >>  Armando Allen hits the 100 yard rushing mark and scores 2 TDs  -  one on the ground, one in the air.
• Prediction 4  >>  Irish field goal kicker Brandon Walker misses a short field goal early; his replacement  -  walk on David Ruffer, (who just joined the team during the bye week, after the coaches spotted him at a dorm football game. came into practice and nailed all of his kicks, in full speed with pads, and a defense) will attempt his first field gaol in the 2nd half, nailing the 40 yarder, instantly becoming ND's starting kicker and a cult hero of sorts.

Game prediction time:

 

Irish   38     Washington  17

 

(the Vatican's record is 5-1 straight up, 4-2 vs the points)

Titans: "Ballin"

6 - 0

Yes, its pretty amazing. The Tennessee Titans continued the old school style dominance of its opponents in 2008, steamrolling the hapless Chiefs 34-10. The scoreboard was much closer than the game was.

Here are some stats of two very good rushing performances from this past weekend. One is in college, one is in the NFL. Which one is the Titans, Team A or Team B?

(Team A had 332 yards rushing, 8.3 ypc. Team B had 327 yards rushing, good for 8.8 ypc)

The point is that these stats are indistinguishable, and you cant tell a difference between the two. Team A is the Titans, while Team B is Utah, who racked up these yards this past weekend against Colorado St. Amazing that the Titans were able to rack up ridiculous NCAA type stats against an NFL team.

Without a doubt, the Titans are a good team with Lendale White at Running Back. But once again, Chris Johnson is the spark, the difference maker, that gives the offense its teeth.

Ask any baseball hitter what pitch he can hit the easiest and he will tell you a fastball. Its straight and the velocity provides you with built in power off your bat. But ask any great hitter what the most effective pitch of most great pitchers is, and they will tell you fastball. How can the same pitch be the most effective and the easiest to hit? Hitting a fastball is about a timing and vision. If you know its coming, its just see and put bat head to the ball - all the power is generated for you. But when you get thrown a few slow pitches, your timing and eye level must change in order to hit. Being thrown a 75mph change up along with a 95 mph fastball is incredibly more difficult to hit than the same 95mph fastball being thrown over an over. Chris Johnson is the fastball, Lendale is the changeup. They compliment each other by forcing a defense to change its timing, vision, and physicality to defend the run.

Kudos to the Titans for drafting Chris Johnson - who many, including myself, did not want to draft. We figured we had a running back already. The Titans got a 2 for 1 in drafting Johnson, because they added a running back AND made our current running back more effective.

The Chiefs failed miserably at defending either White or Johnson, who both eclipsed 150 yards rushing. In fact, each had TD runs of over 60 yards, Lendale with an 80 yard run himself. A solid performance by in a typical Jeff Fisher way - run the ball, defend the run, pressure the QB. Passing yardage is a distant priority.

Next week, Monday night affair in Nashville against the Colts. I think that one could get ugly, but I'll make a prediction next week once I calm down.

MLB - Wha Happnd?

October is the best month on the sports calendar. College and Pro football machines are going with important games occurring every weekend of the month. The NBA is right around the corner, with exhibition games going on. College Basketball March Madness is getting ready to begin. The NHL has already started (yes, it still exists). But the key to October's sports magic for me and many Americans, is October playoff baseball.

Unfortunately, playoff baseball TV ratings have dropped through the years, as seen in the chart in this internet link with article here. The playoffs ratings drop obviously reflects a decline in the popularity of baseball. Most agree that the youth of America - specifically those under the age of 40 - are much less interested in baseball than earlier generations were. This trend does not bode well for the future, as Generation Y and X continue to grow as a % of the American population. How has baseball lost a lot of its fans, the "youth" of America?

• Baseball's Overly Capitalistic and "Republican" Structure - While the Pope sympathizes with the Republicans and Free Market-ers in real life, in baseball, these agendas have caused much more havoc then help. Baseball currently sits in a position where the top 20% of teams are as financially strong as any in sport - but the bottom 20% are as weak as just about any team in sports. The Yankees have a payroll of right around $200 million, while the lowly Royals have a payroll near $50 million. The revenue streams are equally dwarfing, with the Yankees grossing near $275 million (per Forbes)per year, while the Royals struggle to get near $100 million. The answer to this obvious problem was "Revenue sharing" for baseball, where the top teams give back some of their revenue to the bottom teams. This uneven landscape has made it difficult to consistently win - note the stress on the word consistently. Oakland, Tampa Bay, the Marlins, the Twins, are all examples of teams with low payrolls that win. But most do not consistently win, and they always lose their superstars to free agency. Without stars for fans to attach to for many years, and without consistent winning, it will continue to be difficult for teams to be financially viable and grow their fanbase.
• Football - More people watching football means less people watching playoff baseball. Pretty simple. Baseball's decline has been as much attributed to football's rapid growth in the past 15 years in particular. Check out this link, which shows the top ranking cable programs from last week (week ending October 5th 2008), you can see that a regular season MNF game on cable ESPN - nothing more than middle of the road NFL fodder - got 11.7 million viewers. The most watched MLB playoff game last week (on cable, not the NLCS on Fox, which incidentally produced near 7.5M viewers) got 6.2M viewers. The reasons more fans are watching the NFL are numerous, but to me the most important is the economic and political landscape of the league, as the NFL developed a model of parity, where any team in any market can be good. With the consistent revenue streams available to each team, as well as the salary cap, the league is one where any team can afford to spend the money and bring in a big free agent. The rising star baseball player that plays for the Royals will never stay there - he will leave when his first contract is up, because the Royals can only offer barely half of what other teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs could offer him. Not so in the NFL, which allows more stars to stay on one team, which exponentially grows and strengthens fan bases.

How does baseball address this problem? First the business side . . .

• Salary Cap >> I don't think a salary cap alone is the answer, but I think its a big start. The ability for the Royals, Twins, and Devil Rays just to resign their young stars will single handedly increase their competitiveness, increase the fan base's attachment to a team via the players, and help players become "stars". League's are built upon star power, which I think is more easily cultivated when a player stays with one team. Moving from team to team takes some of the player's likability away, as he is seen as a MERC; thus his chance of being truly beloved declines. A salary cap would allow the bottom revenue teams a more consistent chance at winning.
  
  Many of you may argue that now is not the best time to make the argument for a salary cap, with the Rays on the cusp of the World Series (last night's comeback by the Red Sox was ridiculous). I could not agree less. The Rays have been in existence for 11 seasons, finishing last in the AL East 9 times, 4th place 1 time, and then winning the division this year. That is not consistently winning. I promise you, that if Tampa Bay would have won their division 4 times in those years, their fan base and revenue streams would be at least 10 to 15% higher.

Next comes the marketing side to my solution to baseball . . .

• More double headers, more daytime games >> Quite simply, Baseball needs the young fans to watch and car. To do that, the most old fashioned game must make some drastic changes. I am not a marketing expert, but I would start with ways to change the fan experience in the stands. Have more double headers, more daytime games, and do everything you can to give free tickets to schools so kids go to games and bring their parents. Obvious promotions need to be ramped up, as baseball must continue the American cliche of the boy skipping school to go to the ballpark with Dad. Double headers could be 2 games for the price of 1, and also could shorten the season. Schedule about 10 of these a year and you have just cut a week and a half off the season, which is already to long.
• Showcase the drama of playoff baseball >> Playoff baseball is very dramatic, but poorly marketed in my opinion. Lengthen the divisional series to 7 games, and get all the broadcasts on the major networks (sorry TBS). Get more games on during primetime hours, and mandate that all games must be sold out or tickets are given away to kids for free.
• Shorten the regular season >> This recommendation could be the result of more double headers, and will contribute to an earlier and longer showcase of the playoffs. Don't even decrease the number of games, but decrease the time from opening day until the playoffs begin. The NBA and the NHL continue to stay relevant simply because of how long and exciting their playoffs are. Baseball needs to take heed, and even consider adding a round to the mix.

No matter what changes are or are not made, the big market teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, and Cardinals will always prop baseball up. My fear is that baseball will look at total revenues and total attendance - generated disproportionately by the aforementioned teams - and feel that baseball as a whole is "healthy". True health will be when the smaller markets (Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Oakland) can financially compete with the big boys, just like the smaller markets in the NFL. Once the financial and economic playing field are leveled, then marketing in these small markets can really take off.

Titans Update

Yes, this blog gets very Notre Dame heavy during the fall. Work gets busy, and with the Irish dominating my thoughts, its easy for my 2 posts per week to be on Notre Dame football. Neglected only on my blog (and not by me), the Titans impressive start has not been missed. The Tennessee Titans are 5-0 for the first time in franchise history, dating back to when the team was the Houston Oilers. How has this good team from 2007 become a good to great team in 2008? Simple.

• Even better defense   >>  Is that possible? While the Titans are still in the top 5 in the league in defensive scoring, yards allowed, rushing yards, passing yards, and turnovers (same as last year), this year the Titans are getting even more pressure on the QB while maintaining the other aspects of the defense. The Titans 3 sacks per game average is better than the 2.5 sacks per game from last year, and it has not been at the expense of extra defenders via the blitz. I have not seen an update, but through week 4 the Titans were also the 2nd least blitzing defense in the league. Getting to the opponent's quarterback using only the front 4 gives your defense so many more options in defending the pass. Defensive tackles Albert Haynesworth and Tony Brown (from the University of Memphis!, pictured), have commanded extra attention, as have Kyle Vandenbosch and Jevon Kearse at defensive end. Vandenbosch and Haynesworth certainly steal the headlines, but Brown and Kearse are good enough to make teams pay for leaving them alone.
• Chris Johnson   >>   The Titans finished top 5 in rushing last year, but currently sit just outside the top 10 with 120ypg. Lendale runs between the tackles just as before, but now the Titans have a home run threat that forces the defense to pay attention to, in Chris Johnson. Screen passes, swing passes, outside tosses, misdirection tosses, end arounds  -  these are all now major parts of the Titans offense. These plays have been effective at times, ineffective at others, but one thing is for certain  - Chris Johnson gives the Titans quick strike capability unlike they have had in years, and he forces the defense's hand a bit more to the quarterback. No surprise our QB play has improved this year . . .
• Better QB play  >>  Kerry Collins has provided just good enough QB play to keep defenses honest, pickup timely first downs, and protect the football. While the Titans are ranked 16th in the league in interceptions with 5, 2 of those came from Vince Young in the first game. Collins has played 17 quarters of football on only thrown 3 nterceptions, which is plenty good enough to win. I will comment more about Vince Young (my boy) vs Kerry Collins, the injury, the mental illness, etc, when the time is right. But know this - Vince Young will play meaningful snaps at Quarterback for the Titans this season, and the 25 year old's career is far from over.
• Fantastic Offensive Line  >>  The young, very underrated offensive line has only given up 2 sacks all season, tops in the NFL. And that's all with a statue of a quarterback in Kerry Collins, not known for being mobile. 26 year olds Michael Roos and David Stewart have been awesome Tackle signings, both guys signed this past offseason at the end of their rookie deals, locking up the line for years to come. In addition, the Titans have veteran center Kevin Mawae, as well as guard free agent signing from last year, Jake Scott (formerly of the Colts). These guys are steady, and a top 5 unit in the league.

Of course there is the one thing that has been the same with the Tennessee Titans for the past 14 years  -  Jeff Fisher. Coaching has been steady, and the team has been built the way he has wanted - starting from the front back, with top emphasis on the defensive and offensive lines. Defense and running the ball come next, with the passing game and wideouts a lower priority. Fisher believes that if you defend the run, rush the football, and protect the football, passing will come naturally as a by product. He truly is old school, looking to out physical the opponent and will them into doing what he wants  -  trying to pass the ball against us. What a pleasure to have this west coast USC softie turned tough guy as our football coach.

 

With the Chiefs on the road, the Colts at home, and then the Packers at home in the next three weeks, the Titans should certainly win 1 and likely 2 of those 3 games. I don't see any team in the league, in the entire NFL, that I would pick the Titans to lose soundly to. Hopefully they can stay healthy, stay hungry, and stay to the course of Jeff Fisher's gameplan.

Tough Loss

The Irish lost a tough, close game at #22 North Carolina, falling 28-24 on Saturday afternoon. Despite nearly 500 yards total offense, and out gaining the Tar Heels by nearly 160 yards, the rapidly improving Irish could not outscore 5 turnovers. North Carolina capitalized on 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles to score 14 of their 28 points, enough for the 4 point victory. Before I get to my predictions, here are the Vatican's points from this game:

• The Irish were the more talented team on Saturday  -  I'm not writing out of sour grapes, but out of simple observation. I don't think there was a big talent edge, but just a slight lean to the Irish. North Carolina had relative difficulty with nearly everything the Irish did on offense and defense, except with our turnovers. Talent does not always equal production, and that's where maturity and coaching will have to bridge the gap to winning.
• The Irish lack of muturity was the factor in the game   -  Obviously the turnover ratio  -  5 to 0  -  was the key. The Irish youth contributed heavily if not fully to the turnovers. Miscommunication on a pass, staring down a receiver, not feeling the pocket collapsing, and holding on the ball too long are all mistakes by Jimmy Clausen that reflect his age (20). This team is good enough to win at home, but needs to learn and experience how to win on the road, a very different and more difficult task.
• The Irish defense continues to play surprisingly well  -  Bend but not break. The Irish defense only gave up 21 points, and only 14 on non-turnover drives (7 pts scored by UNC's defense, 7 pts scored on a very short field after a fumble). The pass defense has been superior  -  top 20 in the country is about where I guess they will be once all the stats are tabulated from this weekend. Rush defense is a weakness, but the Irish are still giving the offense and very reasonable chance to win, as they have not given up more than 23 points all season long to an offense.
• Our passing game is darn good  -  really good. Jimmy is a young sophomore, throwing the ball to freshman and sophomores, and throwing it all over the yard. 380yards passing, on the road, is impressive. Yes, the turnovers were a big negative, but don't discount how well Jimmy handled the offense and how well we passed the ball on a solid pass defense. The turnovers will decrease with time, and the offense will only get better. Gonna be a fun few more years watching these guys.
• The 1st Quarter was an offensive passing clinic by the Irish  -  didn't use a running back on any offensive play (I believe). 150 yards passing, Jimmy throwing with precision and accuracy all over the field. 5 WR formations really through the Tar Heels for a loop, and they eventually had to adjust. Then the Irish ran the ball once the extra defensive backs came onto the field. A great first half really, and definitely brought back memories of 2005 and 2006 offenses. The offense of the 1st qtr could compete against any defense, anywhere. A major fault was not scoring more points in the first half than the 17 we did. Lotsa production but only 17 points was not enough.

Now for my predictions grading:

 

Prediction #1  -  Jimmy passes for 250 with 2 tds and 1 int  -  I was way off on the passing yards, as Jimmy threw for 380 yards. I was right on the 2tds, but one short on the interceptions he threw (2). He also had a very critical fumble lost that hurt the Irish. Overall, a solid day for Jimmy save a few plays. You must see the positive in his play, not just the turnovers. He is young and will get better.

 

Prediction #2  -  Armando Allen would rush for 125 yards and catch 5 passes   -  Armando only rushed for 60 yards, although 5yards per carry. He did catch 5 passes, fastly becoming a great outlet for Jimmy. Those outlet passes are an extension of the running game, and working very well.

 

Prediction #3  -  The Irish defense would force 3 turnovers from UNC QB Cam Sexton. I was wrong here. Sexton managed the game very well, as the Irish were not able to capitalize on his few errant passes. He passed for 200 yards, with no TDs, but more importantly no INTs. If Sexton threw an INT or two, the Irish win this football game. Kudos to him for not penalizing his team with his mediocrity.

 

Score Prediction  -  I predicted the Irish would win 28-20, and was obviously wrong. This was the first game all season that I was wrong in picking the winner, finishing the first half 5-1 on my pick the winners and 4-2 against the spread (the Irish covered against the Tar Heels).

 

All in all, we are still progressing as a team. Many will point to the turnovers and other negatives, but I now see a team that is light years better than 2007, and even significantly better than when we played Michigan St. a month ago. Our offense is moving the ball, playmakers are growing, and the defense is holding. Special teams (save the kicking game) has been fantastic all year. The turnovers and "closing ability" of our team in road games will both improve, and we will learn a lot from this close loss. Clearly we had a chance and should have won that game, and for this team and this season (in light of last year), that means something. Now I won't accept this type of loss as easily next year, but we have to keep everything in perspective.

 

There is much to be excited about in the Notre Dame program. I honestly believe, particularly after this game, that this program will win 8 games or more as long as Weis is there. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, mark it down, all that. As for this season, earlier this year I expected us to go 7-5. Now, after Saturday in particular, I think 8-4 is as reasonable as my initial prediction, with 9-3 not out of the realm of possibility. The Irish are 4-2 at the midway point  -  certainly we should win 3 more games (Washington, Syracuse, and Navy - yes Navy beat us last year, but barely and in triple OT). So thats 7 wins. We lose to USC. So that's 7-3, with two swing games left on the board  -  Pittsburgh at home, and @ Boston College. Split those games, you go 8-4. Win both, you finish 9-3. 7 wins puts us in the Brut Sun Bowl or possibly the Meineke Car Care Bowl (my initial preseason prediction). 8 or 9 wins and we are in the Gator or Cotton bowl, both on New Years day. Pretty simple scenarios.

 

Bye week at the midway point is nice. Especially after this tough, emotional loss. Hopefully we can regroup and go out to Washington and beat up on them, although being on the road you never know what can happen.