Nevada Game Preview

The Irish take on Nevada on Saturday to open up the 2009 season. If you haven't been following the blog during August, check out the 10 positional previews here, as well as the season prediction post here. The positional previews are great for an overview of each position, incorporating tidbits from fall camp. Please check them out and let us know whether you enjoyed them.

Nevada is not the pushover that they may sound to the casual college football fan. But make no doubt about it - the Irish are the more talented team and should win this game soundly. Unfortunately, the recent Irish squads lose too many games they shouldn't, and Nevada has many of the components needed to pull off a shocker this weekend. The components that could help them win are . . .

• Experienced Quarterback - Colin Kaepernick is one of only 5 players in college football history to rush for a 1000 yards and throw for 2000 in a single season. He is also one of only a few to throw AND rush for 20TDs in a season. The redshirt junior is 6' 6" and 220 pounds of Quarterbacking efficiency. Many compare him to Vince Young, with a better arm (drafted in the MLB draft this past year as a pitcher, did not sign). The Irish are going to have to respect his rushing ability, while also defending against his improving passing skills. From a preseason perspective, Kaepernick is the most feared QB on the Irish schedule - easily.
• Different yet Disciplined Offense - Nevada runs an offense called the "Pistol". The QB lines up in a shotgun formation - one yard closer to the center than a normal shotgun. The additional space allows a running back to line up behind the QB, not alongside. The ball is snapped to the QB, giving the benefits of a shotgun while also maintaining a downhill rushing approach with the RB in the backfield. The playcalling blends an I-Form straight ahead rushing attack with elements of the spread and the option. A querky offense that can confuse a more talented team and give yourself a chance to win.
• Experienced Coach - Chris Ault has now coached Nevada 23 seasons over 33 years during 3 different stints. Ault was inducted to the college football hall of fame in 2001, and has shown an ability to adapt his approach to give Nevada the best chance to win games against bigger more powerful programs. His teams have finished the last 5 seasons with a winning record and a bowl game appearance. A victory like this would easily be the "biggest victory in Nevada history and of Ault's career", according to a Reno journalist I read earlier this week (sorry no link).
• Pass Rush - From Tim Prister on UND.com: "Nevada boasts the most productive defensive end tandem returning to the college game in '09. Juniors Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch combined for 21.5 sacks and 36 tackles for lost yardage - as sophomores! Basped - 6-foot-6, 240 pounds - has the 'measurables' that NFL scouts crave. Moch - 6-foot-1, 245 pounds - led the Wolf Pack in sacks last year with 11.5 (to Basped's 10)." Yikes.

Notre Dame has some advantages as well:

• Passing Attack - The Irish return their top 3 passing targets from last year, as well as a junior QB looking to finally reach his potential. The offensive line is back en masse and ready to apply new coach Frank Verducci's techniques. There is no reason the Irish should not have passing success against the team with the dead last ranked pass defense in the country in 2008. 300 yards passing should be almost guaranteed. 380 yards for Clausen through the air is the prediction.
• Time to Prepare for "the Pistol" - "The Pistol" is an offense, not a shaggy haired legendary basketball player. Described above, this complicated offense takes time to prepare for. Having 2 weeks of nothing but Nevada game prep is definitely an advantage to our defense. Certainly the Irish were not be able to replicate the efficiency and speed of the Nevada offense in practice, but the more practice reps against a funky formation, the better.
• Talented Special Teams - Notre Dame's special teams had an overall banner year last year, despite an inconsistent field goal kicker. Top ranked kickoff coverage in the country, and top 30 in punt defense. Even more young athletes have been added to the mix, including a talented freshman kicker in Nick Tausch (who beat out senior Brandon Walker). Nevada was terrible in 2008 on kickoffs in particular - both returning (101st in the country) and return defense (113th). Punting wasn't much better, covering 62nd best and returning 99th best. Special Teams should be an area where our depth should be a major advantage. Our return units are in the good hands of freshman Theo Riddick (kickoffs) and the electrifying Golden Tate (punts). Look for the Irish to have early success in the kickoff return game, returning the opening kick to near midfield.
• Experienced Secondary - The Irish have 4 returning starters in the secondary - easily the deepest unit on the team (Free Safety Harrison Smith started at outside linebacker last year, replacing David Bruton who departed to the NFL). Currently the #3 CB on the roster in Darrin Walls was the best cover corner on the team in 2007. Check out the season previews for our safety and cornerback positions. Our defensive plan is likely to let our cornerbacks cover Nevada WRs 1 on 1, allowing the safeties to creep up and help the front slow down Kaepernick. We have the talent to do match up with their wideouts.

In the season prediction post, I predicted Notre Dame would win this game. I think the game is going to be exciting, yet not a blowout. Nevada will remain within striking distance, but the Irish will finish the game winning by a comfortable enough margin. Notre Dame's athleticism limits big plays from Nevada, while the Wolfpack offense does have success moving the ball. Some big red zone stops and a few turnovers limit the Wolfpack points, while the Irish return game sets the Irish offense up with great field position.

Irish 38 Nevada 27

A few more miscellaneous predictions: Jimmy Clausen throws 3 TDs, no interceptions, with 380 yards passing. Armando Allen has 1 TD rushing and 1 receiving, while Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph each contribute with a pass catch for a TD. The opening toss is won by Notre Dame, and we elect to receive. Theo Riddick, true freshman, returns the opening kick to the 50 yard line. 3 plays later, Kyle Rudolph catches a pass down the seam for the first Irish TD of the 2009 season.

Since the spread is -14pts (Irish favored), I am predicting the Irish will not cover. My other college football picks of the week are Tulsa -13.5 tonight vs Tulane, Wake Forest -2 vs Baylor, and Memphis +17 vs Ole Miss. Have a great Labor Day weekend and GO IRISH!

2009 Season Prediction

The season is upon us, and most college football fans can barely contain the excitement. I cannot remember an opening weekend with so many interesting games: Oklahoma St hosts Georgia, Alabama vs Virginia Tech, BYU vs Oklahoma, Oregon vs Boise St (tonight). And then of course Notre Dame opening up with Nevada (2:30pm central, NBC), with the Irish being two touchdown favorites over the #3 ranked rushing team in the country of 2008.

Its prediction time - with this year's theme being the same here at Vatican Smoke as it is for Charlie Weis and the Irish - "Don't Tell Me, Show Me". While Coach Weis won't predict anything, here is our first prediction: 2009 will be an memorable season for the Irish football team and fans. Either we watch our program turn the corner and begin a run of sustained success, or we get saddled with another rebuilding project and a new coach. It feels as though either of these outcomes are more likely than a run of the mill 7-5 season.

Now onto the specifc wins and losses. Each week, we will have an opponent specific preview with more details. Here is a quick rundown of how we here at Vatican Smoke think the season will play out:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - W
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - L
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L
• Oct 26th - Boston College - W
• Oct 31st - Wash St (in San Antonio) - W
• Nov 7th - Navy - W
• Nov 14th - @ Pittsburgh - W
• Nov 21st - UConn - W
• Nov 28th - @ Stanford - L

• Overall Record: 9-3
• Bowl Game: Gator Bowl
• Opponent: North Carolina
• Bowl Game Score: ND 34 UNC 27
• Final Record: 10-3
• Final Ranking: #12 in the AP, #13 in the Coaches Poll

• Offensive MVP: Jimmy Clausen (Jr QB)
• Defensive MVP: Brian Smith (Jr Weakside LB)
• Best Freshman: Theo Reddick (Freshman return man & scatback RB)
• Special Teams MVP: Nick Tausch (Freshman Kicker)
• Most Improved: Armando Allen (Jr RB)

10-3 with a bowl victory in a New Years Day bowl. A solid season, but short of the BCS. Inconsistency will be the reason the Irish fall in very close losses to Michigan St, USC, and Stanford on a last second field goal. However, the Irish will greatly improve in turnovers and rushing offense. And finally the Irish will learn to beat down weaker competition. Only a few costly INTs by Jimmy Clausen, as well as the defense being unable to seal the deal, will hurt the Irish in their 3 close losses. USC loses the total offense battle against the Irish, but Pete Carroll's defense finds a way to make a big play in the 4th quarter. Michigan St beats up on the turnover prone Irish early, withstanding a solid comeback bid that falls short. Stanford outplays the complacent Irish in the 4th quarter, winning by a last second field goal. Sentiment heading into the offseason will be saved by the bowl game performance against a solid North Carolina squad. The "hot seat" talk about Charlie's job slows down to a drip, and recruiting gains even more momentum.

One last tidbit about the season that I found interesting - The great Notre Dame blog, Blue Gray Sky, last year compared Weis's 4 year coaching career to the standard 5 act dramatic structure of a play. Acts 1 and 2 were the "exposition" and "rising action of the hero" (2005-2006). Act 3 was the climax or turning point (2007). Act 4 was the "falling action" (2008). What will Act 5 be? Catastrophy (Tragedy) or Resolution (Comedy)? Enjoy Act 5, and check back on Friday for the Nevada game preview.

Positional Previews #1 - Quarterbacks

We are finishing the Notre Dame Football 2009 Positional Previews by counting down to the top ranked of the 10 positions. You can read about the 10 positions and an explanation of the rankings here. In short, #10 is the position that I am least confident/most worried about heading into the season, while #1 is the position I am most confident/least worried about. Ability, depth, and intangibles all factor in.

Today we hit up #1 - Quarterbacks

Depth Chart - The depth chart should remain unchanged for the 2009 and 2010 seasons - barring something extraordinary happening. This is the healthiest depth chart at Quarterback arguably since Ara Parseghian roamed the sidelines in the late 70s.

Talent - Plenty of it. Not many programs can boast two 5 star recruits at QB like the Irish can with Clausen and Crist (Clausen was ranked #1 QB and #1 overall recruit in the country in 2007, while Crist was ranked #2 QB and #25 overall recruit in the country in 2008). Evan Sharpley was a 3 star recruit in 2005 class, the first class after Weis was hired. Evan was a major player as a first basemen on the baseball team at ND, and was drafted in the 50th round by the Seattle Mariners in June. He had a great season this past summer in rookie ball, batting .333 with 7 HR/ 29 RBIs in 37 games (picture in Irish baseball uniform below). This spring Sharpley's baseball career will continue, but for now, he is focused on tutoring ND's backup Dayne Crist and running ND's scout team offense.

Changes - Crist (pictured in the spring game above) moving ahead of Sharpley is the biggest change at the position. Crist red shirted last season, so his 4 year eligibility clock starts this year. Look for Crist to get in some games this year to develop him for the future. Hopefully games like Washington, Washington St, and a few others, Crist can play the 4th quarter and get some live experience. Clausen is going to have to be more consistent this season than last. While he flirted with perfection against Hawaii and a first half against North Carolina, the Boston College and USC games were as bad offensively as any games in the Weis era. Hopefully Clausen's third season will be a huge leap forward in his decision making and consistency.

Depth - The depth chart and the talent section above speak to this issue. No longer is depth or talent an excuse at the quarterback position. Certainly Crist has zero game experience - and thats a huge factor should he be called upon due to injury. That's why having Sharpley is so important, a 5th year senior with 19 games worth of experience (2 starts) under his belt. In college football, QBs are often only as good as the talent around them. Sharpley and Crist should have a good pass blocking offensive line, and 2 major playmakers at WR in Floyd and Tate. Certainly there will be a dropoff if Clausen is hurt - but the Irish should be in much better shape than most teams who would lose their starter. A starting QB injury could mean death for some schools' seasons (Ole Miss comes to mind - what if Jevan Snead gets hurt?) The Irish can still contend with their 2nd or 3rd string QB this season, a major factor in ranking the QB position so high.

Goals - Here is a comparison between Jimmy Clausen and his predecessor, Brady Quinn. Brady was the much more likable quarterback. But don't let affinity for Brady or your scorn for Jimmy form your conclusion on the brash Californian - compare the stats, starting with their sophomore seasons:

• Brady Quinn 2004 (Soph) - 12 starts, 2586 yards, 54.1% completion, 17 TDs / 10 INTs, 125.9 passer rating
• Jimmy Clausen 2008 (Soph) - 13 starts, 3172 yards, 60.9% completion, 25 TDs / 17 INTs, 132.5 passer rating
• Brady Quinn 2005 (JR) - 13 starts, 3919 yards, 64.9% completion, 32 TDs / 7 INTs, 158.4 passer rating

Brady Quinn made a huge leap from his sophomore season to his junior season. Certainly his leap had to do with the coaching of Weis, in his first season in 2005 with the Irish. Experience at the offensive positions coincided with Brady's resurgence, particularly along the offensive line. The 2009 Irish offense is looking very similar to that 2005 offense entering the season - lots of returning starters and plenty of talent. By reading the other position previews, you know this. Can Jimmy make the same leap during his Jr year? Lets cut to the chase and give Jimmy some goals for this season:

• Jimmy Clausen 2009 (JR) - 13 starts, 3800 yards, 62.0% completion, 35 TDs / 10 INTs, 145.8 passer rating

These are reachable goals - make no doubt about it. Yes, Jimmy would have to throw 10 more TDs while throwing 7 less INTs, which is the biggest reach of these stats. However, 3800 yards and 62% completion are very reasonable given the schedule and Clausen's 2008 stats. If Jimmy produces at this clip, New Years Day bowl it is for the Irish.

Final Analysis - "We ready." Our QB is at the turning point of his career, with some talented weapons and experience at his disposal. The schedule is favorable, and the time is now. Unlike the BCS runs of 2001, 2005, and 2006, the Irish look ready to sustain the BCS-level success for a few years - not just a short lived burst. However, the future only happens if things get started on the right foot during the most critical stretch of the Irish schedule - the opening 3 games in September (Nevada, @Michigan, Michigan St). If things start out poorly, the pressure consumes the Irish and Charlie Weis gets fired, further delaying the rebuilding. In the Spring, Jimmy told the Sporting News, "Coach Weis won't get fired because of me." I believe him.

Positional Previews #2 - Cornerbacks

We are continuing the Notre Dame Football 2009 Positional Previews by counting down 10 positions. You can read about the 10 positions and an explanation of the rankings here. In short, #10 is the position that I am least confident/most worried about heading into the season, while #1 is the position I am most confident/least worried about. Ability, depth, and intangibles all factor in.

Today we hit up #2 - Cornerbacks

Depth Chart - The Irish are healthier at this position arguably than any other. I put CB at #2, and I will explain in this post and the #1 positional preview tomorrow.

Talent - Elite. 4 star players on this depth chart - Blanton, McNeil, Gray (the entire 3 deep at LCB), as well as Walls (pictured right) and Slaughter at the RCB position. EJ Banks and Mike Anello were 3 star and not ranked (walk on), respectively. You may have heard about Anello in the Wall Street Journal and other news articles, as he has a cult following, going from former walk on to starting "Gunner" on special teams. His production at Gunner and his current scholarship separate him from Rudy, however. Darrin Walls was a top 50 player in the country in 2006, but missed the 2008 season due to personal reasons. Blanton had a strong freshman year, and has overtaken 2 year starter Raeshon McNeil for one starting CB spot. Make no doubts about it - Walls, Blanton, and McNeil are 3 top flight corners that put the Irish in great shape to continue to improve the passing defense (43rd nationally in 2008). Blanton is a very physical and instinctive corner, whereas Walls is the more pure "cover corner" and McNeil is somewhere in between.

Changes - Darrin Walls' return is huge. He was the top CB on the team in 2007 and returns to join 2 experienced CBs in Blanton (pictured right) and McNeil. Gary Gray and Jamoris Slaughter have done well in camp - particularly Slaughter, who did not play a down in 2008 as a true freshman. Former Defensive Coordinator and now Asst Head Coach / DB Coach Corwin Brown hopefully will send even more focused time with the defensive backs. His NFL and college experience have been huge in improving the Irish secondary from a major weakness in Weis's first few years, to a strength on the current team.

Depth - 3 very solid corners with 2 four star players behind them is pretty darn good. The future is also bright, as ND will only lose McNeil (pictured below) this offseason to graduation (assuming no NFL departure by Walls). Gray and Blanton will have 2 years of eligibility remaining after this season, while Slaughter will have 3. Darrin Walls has another year of eligibility for next season. ND still needs to add an elite corner every year in recruiting, and so far this recruiting year, we have added 2 three star CBs.

Goals - More interceptions. The Irish pass defense was respectable but needs improvement from its 43rd overall in the country finish. Top 30 in pass defense is a respectable goal, assuming the defense creates more turnovers. The Irish had 14 interceptions in 2008 - but only 6 by the Cornerbacks. If the defense shoots for 20 interceptions in 2009 (a lofty goal considering the weakness in rush defense), the Cornerbacks will need to contribute 8 interceptions or more. Hopefully the Irish offense will put opposing offenses in catch up mode - meaning more passing and more opportunities for INTs.

Final Analysis - Without improvement in turnovers, particularly interceptions by Cornerbacks, the Irish will struggle to improve drastically in the wins and losses. 14 interceptions by our defense, against 17 thrown by our quarterback just won't cut it. Rush defense and the offensive production by the Irish will be huge factors into the interception numbers - but the passing yardage allowed will likely tell a much more accurate story of the Irish CB performance this year. Undoubtedly this unit will be at least above average, being the most talented and experienced unit of the Irish defense. However, with a weak defensive line, the Corners will be leaned upon with some tough coverage assignments. Whether or not this group of Cornerbacks can improve and perform under this pressure, may be the difference between 8 wins and a BCS bid for the Irish.

Positional Previews #3 - Wide Receivers

We are continuing the Notre Dame Football 2009 Positional Previews by counting down 10 positions. You can read about the 10 positions and an explanation of the rankings here. In short, #10 is the position that I am least confident/most worried about heading into the season, while #1 is the position I am most confident/least worried about. Ability, depth, and intangibles all factor in.

Today we hit up #3 - Wide Receivers

Depth Chart - Here is a look at the depth chart. Note that the X is the Flanker (WR off the line of scrimmage) while the Z is the Split End (on the line) in a standard 2 WR set. 3WRs will be on the field a good bit in a Weis offense.

Talent - Possibly, likely the greatest WR combination in Notre Dame history will be suiting up for the Irish the next two seasons. Other national media agree with me, as Rivals ranked ND's Golden Tate and Michael Floyd the #1 WR combo in the country this year. The only reason WRs are #3 and not #1 in this position confidence countdown is simple - can we find someone who can step up if either Floyd or Tate goes down with injury? Last year, with Michael Floyd out the final few games, the Irish lost 4 of 5 as defenses double teamed Golden Tate. The offense dragged and experienced its worst games of the year. Unlike last year, we have a promising freshman that may be able to play opposite either Golden or Michael, should either go down. Shaquelle Evans has gotten rave reviews in camp, and should be the next Irish WR star - but he is a freshman and is unproven. Thus, the WRs are #3 on the countdown. Shaquelle was a high 4 star on Rivals, being heavily recruited by USC as well (he's from Inglewood, CA). Golden Tate, Duval Kamara, and Deion Walker were all similarly ranked 4 star recruits, while John Goodman, Robby Parris, and George West were 3 star guys. And Michael Floyd was a 5 star top 25 overall player in 2008 - as advertised after his freshman year in 2008.

Changes - The addition of Shaquelle Evans is the major change. Shaq has "burner" speed, much like Golden Tate, and appears physically ready to play. Sophomores John Goodman and Deion Walker look ready to contribute as well after a redshirt freshman year for each, and both could see playing time as the 4th and sometimes 3rd WR. A California summer trip hosted by Jimmy Clausen, where he, Floyd, Tate, and TE Kyle Rudolph worked on their passing for a week shouldn't hurt the passing game. With 2 of the most most dynamic WRs in recent ND history back for another two seasons, minimal change is good.

Depth - Improving. If Shaq Evans can be the 3rd WR we need, his prescence will work wonders for the offense. John Goodman and Deion Walker are also solid, talented, but unproven players that seem to be ready to contribute. George West and Robby Parris played more in 2007 than in 2008 (George West was the starting WR in 2007 at the beginning of the season! We've come a long way talent wise since then); my gut feeling is that the coaches will have a hard time playing Parris or West over developing Shaq, Walker, or Goodman, barring injuries or the young guys struggling. Recruiting wise, ND needs to get an elite WR every year to keep this cupboard stocked to an ideal level for a Weis offense. So far we have two solid 3 star guys committed, but need that gamebreaker. Likely next year will be a big recruiting year at WR, with Golden Tate and Michael Floyd that much older and closer to exiting the depth chart (more playing time to sell).

Goals - Big goals for this unit. In 2008, the ND passing offense ranked 34th in the country. This year, the goal is top 20. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd combined for 106 catches and 17 TDs last year (Floyd missed final 3 regular season games and played sparingly in the bowl game). Goal for the combo this year - 150 catches and 25 TDs. That is a very lofty goal; however, it would be almost identical to greatest WR duo in ND history, Jeff Samardzija and Maurice Stovall in 2005 - a duo that produced 146 catches for 26 TDs. TE Kyle Rudolph and the 3rd WR, hopefully Shaquelle Evans, are going to have to capitalize on the attention defenses will be giving Tate and Floyd. In 2008, non-Floyd/Tate receivers (including TE and RBs) accounted for 8 of the 25 passing TDs. This year, those guys need to get 15/35 total TDs thrown through the air. Obviously, we're predicting that the Irish WRs are in for a big year.

Final Analysis - This position is all about answering two questions: who can replace Floyd/Tate if an injury occurs? And who can play 3rd WR? The answer to both of those questions will be Shaquelle Evans. His youth and lack of experience held us back from putting the Irish WRs at the top of this positional confidence list. Maybe by year end, they'll prove us wrong.