Nevada Game Preview

The Irish take on Nevada on Saturday to open up the 2009 season. If you haven't been following the blog during August, check out the 10 positional previews here, as well as the season prediction post here. The positional previews are great for an overview of each position, incorporating tidbits from fall camp. Please check them out and let us know whether you enjoyed them.

Nevada is not the pushover that they may sound to the casual college football fan. But make no doubt about it - the Irish are the more talented team and should win this game soundly. Unfortunately, the recent Irish squads lose too many games they shouldn't, and Nevada has many of the components needed to pull off a shocker this weekend. The components that could help them win are . . .

• Experienced Quarterback - Colin Kaepernick is one of only 5 players in college football history to rush for a 1000 yards and throw for 2000 in a single season. He is also one of only a few to throw AND rush for 20TDs in a season. The redshirt junior is 6' 6" and 220 pounds of Quarterbacking efficiency. Many compare him to Vince Young, with a better arm (drafted in the MLB draft this past year as a pitcher, did not sign). The Irish are going to have to respect his rushing ability, while also defending against his improving passing skills. From a preseason perspective, Kaepernick is the most feared QB on the Irish schedule - easily.
• Different yet Disciplined Offense - Nevada runs an offense called the "Pistol". The QB lines up in a shotgun formation - one yard closer to the center than a normal shotgun. The additional space allows a running back to line up behind the QB, not alongside. The ball is snapped to the QB, giving the benefits of a shotgun while also maintaining a downhill rushing approach with the RB in the backfield. The playcalling blends an I-Form straight ahead rushing attack with elements of the spread and the option. A querky offense that can confuse a more talented team and give yourself a chance to win.
• Experienced Coach - Chris Ault has now coached Nevada 23 seasons over 33 years during 3 different stints. Ault was inducted to the college football hall of fame in 2001, and has shown an ability to adapt his approach to give Nevada the best chance to win games against bigger more powerful programs. His teams have finished the last 5 seasons with a winning record and a bowl game appearance. A victory like this would easily be the "biggest victory in Nevada history and of Ault's career", according to a Reno journalist I read earlier this week (sorry no link).
• Pass Rush - From Tim Prister on UND.com: "Nevada boasts the most productive defensive end tandem returning to the college game in '09. Juniors Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch combined for 21.5 sacks and 36 tackles for lost yardage - as sophomores! Basped - 6-foot-6, 240 pounds - has the 'measurables' that NFL scouts crave. Moch - 6-foot-1, 245 pounds - led the Wolf Pack in sacks last year with 11.5 (to Basped's 10)." Yikes.

Notre Dame has some advantages as well:

• Passing Attack - The Irish return their top 3 passing targets from last year, as well as a junior QB looking to finally reach his potential. The offensive line is back en masse and ready to apply new coach Frank Verducci's techniques. There is no reason the Irish should not have passing success against the team with the dead last ranked pass defense in the country in 2008. 300 yards passing should be almost guaranteed. 380 yards for Clausen through the air is the prediction.
• Time to Prepare for "the Pistol" - "The Pistol" is an offense, not a shaggy haired legendary basketball player. Described above, this complicated offense takes time to prepare for. Having 2 weeks of nothing but Nevada game prep is definitely an advantage to our defense. Certainly the Irish were not be able to replicate the efficiency and speed of the Nevada offense in practice, but the more practice reps against a funky formation, the better.
• Talented Special Teams - Notre Dame's special teams had an overall banner year last year, despite an inconsistent field goal kicker. Top ranked kickoff coverage in the country, and top 30 in punt defense. Even more young athletes have been added to the mix, including a talented freshman kicker in Nick Tausch (who beat out senior Brandon Walker). Nevada was terrible in 2008 on kickoffs in particular - both returning (101st in the country) and return defense (113th). Punting wasn't much better, covering 62nd best and returning 99th best. Special Teams should be an area where our depth should be a major advantage. Our return units are in the good hands of freshman Theo Riddick (kickoffs) and the electrifying Golden Tate (punts). Look for the Irish to have early success in the kickoff return game, returning the opening kick to near midfield.
• Experienced Secondary - The Irish have 4 returning starters in the secondary - easily the deepest unit on the team (Free Safety Harrison Smith started at outside linebacker last year, replacing David Bruton who departed to the NFL). Currently the #3 CB on the roster in Darrin Walls was the best cover corner on the team in 2007. Check out the season previews for our safety and cornerback positions. Our defensive plan is likely to let our cornerbacks cover Nevada WRs 1 on 1, allowing the safeties to creep up and help the front slow down Kaepernick. We have the talent to do match up with their wideouts.

In the season prediction post, I predicted Notre Dame would win this game. I think the game is going to be exciting, yet not a blowout. Nevada will remain within striking distance, but the Irish will finish the game winning by a comfortable enough margin. Notre Dame's athleticism limits big plays from Nevada, while the Wolfpack offense does have success moving the ball. Some big red zone stops and a few turnovers limit the Wolfpack points, while the Irish return game sets the Irish offense up with great field position.

Irish 38 Nevada 27

A few more miscellaneous predictions: Jimmy Clausen throws 3 TDs, no interceptions, with 380 yards passing. Armando Allen has 1 TD rushing and 1 receiving, while Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph each contribute with a pass catch for a TD. The opening toss is won by Notre Dame, and we elect to receive. Theo Riddick, true freshman, returns the opening kick to the 50 yard line. 3 plays later, Kyle Rudolph catches a pass down the seam for the first Irish TD of the 2009 season.

Since the spread is -14pts (Irish favored), I am predicting the Irish will not cover. My other college football picks of the week are Tulsa -13.5 tonight vs Tulane, Wake Forest -2 vs Baylor, and Memphis +17 vs Ole Miss. Have a great Labor Day weekend and GO IRISH!