Michigan St. Preview: Flags of our Rivals

The Irish attempt to pull themselves off the mat this Saturday at 230pm central time against Michigan St. in Notre Dame Stadium (NBC). Michigan St has won 6 straight in Notre Dame Stadium, dating back to the Clinton administration (1993). Michigan St planted their flag on Notre Dame's turf back in 2005, Charlie's first season, after a 44-41 OT victory (shown above).

The Irish are 10.5 pt favorites, but both 1-1 squads are in dire need of a win to get back on track. That said, the Irish have way more to lose this game than the Spartans. Here are some things to watch for:

When Michigan St has the ball . . . 

• Can they run the ball like the Michigan St teams of old? Since the Irish are giving up 5.0YPC this season, its assumed that Michigan St will have some success on the ground. Caulton Ray and Larry Caper are inexperienced Spartan RBs, but still averaging 4YPC together thru 2 games. Despite the decent YPC, MSU is only gaining 138 yards per game - much lower than prior years. And those stats were against Montana St. and Central Michigan. The MSU running game is a very physical and straight ahead brand - unlike the spread and misdirection the Irish faced in the first two weeks. Despite their slow start running the ball, I expect MSU to have some success running against the Irish. 
• Will Michigan St have continued success passing the ball? Averaging 267 passing yards per game is very high for an MSU squad. Using two very inexperienced QBs (Nichol and Cousins), the Spartans have had a much more aerial attack than in years past. The Irish strength on defense is the pass defense, which prompts the question - will the Spartans attack through the air - their strength thus far - or attack the Irish weakness of run defense? I expect Michigan St to try to win the game thru the air, in a little bit of game theory - the Spartans will expect the Irish to over focus on run defense, while underestimating the Spartan passing attack. Forcing some turnovers from these inexperienced QBs (Cousins will be making his first ever road start) will be a key to the game for the Irish.
• Can the Irish rush the passer?  The Michigan St pass protection has been stellar (not perfect like the Irish protection has been, however), allowing only a half a sack thru 2 games. If Michigan St is going to pass the ball against a Jon Tenuta defense, pressure will have to be handled by the Spartan offensive line. Any QB with time can make passes, while any QB on his back can't. Pressure will be a major factor in this game for both defenses. Expect even more pressure by Tenuta if the Irish are having success against the run - and especially since Cousins is not fleet of foot like Forcier or Kaepernick. 

When the Irish have the ball . . .

• Can the Irish run the ball enough to balance the Spartan defense?  Notre Dame is running the ball better than at any point of the Charlie Weis era. But Michigan State's front 7 defenders are better than Michigan and Nevada's - significantly so in my opinion. Michigan State's super middle linebacker Greg Jones is a mean mo-fo, average 14(!) tackles per game. He will be involved in the tackle somehow on every single running play, you can count on it. Likely those yards after contact that Armando Allen has been getting are going to be limited against the Spartans. A 150 yard rushing game for the Irish would be a fantastic accomplishment, especially considering the rush game stat line from the game against the Spartans last year: 16 yards rushing, on 22 attempts. YIKES
• Can the Irish exploit the Spartan secondary?  Central Michigan passed with success on the Spartans, hurting the confidence of the MSU defensive backs according to their very own defensive backs coach. As seen the first two games, defending the Irish passing attack is not for the meek. Man on man without deep zone coverage or pressure, the Irish passing attack will succeed. D'Antonio knows this, and will counter appropriately with a package of selective and conservative blitzes, as well as plenty of 2 deep safety coverage.  I get a feeling D'Antonio is expecting Clausen to feel the weight of the world and get impatient, forcing a few deep throws into coverage. Whether Jimmy will be able to take the short check downs given to him will be a major factor in the game. 
• Will Spartan defenders be able to pressure Clausen? D'Antonio knows that Clausen and our wideouts will pick his secondary apart if given time, especially against straight up man for man coverage. As stated above, I think we will see a lot of conservative and deep pass coverage, to avoid the big play by the Irish. While this is a decent idea, there is just no way the Spartans can do that all day without Clausen adjusting. Expect a good number of 3rd down and otherwise very conservative blitzes enough to keep the Irish offensive line on its toes. Michigan State's defensive line will be a handful, so I expect a tired offensive line missing a linebacker or two and allowing a sack for the first time all season. What will the Irish counter this pressure with? The Charlie Weis special, screen passes. Lets just hope Charlie makes good guesses as to when to throw the screen and run max protect plays. Vatican Smoke recommends a slightly different approach - 5 wide, no huddle. Hit TE Rudolph all day. If you're reading this Charlie, you're welcome for the free advice. 

Since Lou Holtz has left, Michigan State has had our number. No matter how easy it was supposed to be against the Spartans, Michigan State always bring tough offensive and defensive lines that bust their a$$ and make the Irish work for every single yard. This game will not be for the timid, undisciplined, or immature. Where last year's team may have wilted, I expect the more experienced Irish squad to grind early, but win convincingly, largely due to a lack of offense and some turnovers on the Spartans. If the Irish give up a sack or two, and only rush for 100 yards, do not consider this a step back - but rather a step forward. Michigan State is a quality team that will be in the conversation for the Big 10 elite, despite last week's setback (first upset of the D'Antonio era). 

Game Prediction:

Notre Dame  31   Michigan St  17

(season record straight up 1-1, against the spread, 0-2)

Have a great weekend Irish fans  -  GO IRISH!!

Moving Forward

Before we completely move on from the Michigan loss, here are a few stat nuggets and notes related to both the game and the season thus far:

• Michael Floyd will play this weekend after receiving 15 stitches due to a cut on his knee suffered with 5 minutes to go in the game.
• Weis is sending in a good number of plays to the Big 10 officials for review. Numerous bad calls happen in a normal game, but this game had more than usual. Referees are not perfect, but 2 or 3 of the calls would have been enough of an edge to win the game. For instance, the lack of a pass interference on the "pre-catch wrestling" with Golden Tate at 2 minutes to go (shown above) is one that certainly would have closed the game out.
• While Michigan out rushed the Irish 190 yards to 154, both teams averaged similar YPC - ND 5.1, Mich 5.0. Don't let the loss blur our fantastic success running the ball. The Irish rushed for just 3.3YPC in 2008, and much less in the 2007 beatdown.
• The Irish passed for 336 yards vs Michigan's 240. Total offensive yards favored the Irish, 490-430.
• Time of possession, turnovers, missed field goals, 3rd down conversion, and even 4th down conversion were all pretty much the same for both teams. What gives? Two things:
• A 94 yard kickoff return for a TD by Michigan's Darryl Stonum, against the 2008 #1 KO coverage unit in the country. The breakdown not only cost the Irish possibly the game, but also a chance to finish in the top 10 in KO coverage yet again.
• Having the ball last - If the Irish get the ball back with 1 minute and a timeout or two, or simply catch the wideopen and poorly run hitch route on 3rd down with 2 minutes to go, the game could have been ended differently.
• Notre Dame is one of only 7 teams in the country that have 0 sacks thru 2 games. Great offensive line protection has been a huge factor in Jimmy's amazing start
• ND is average 500 yards of total offense per game - putting them at #17 in the country. And certainly the teams ahead of us have played schools not quite as solid as Nevada and Michigan.
• The scariest stat so far season to date . . . rushing yards given up. Notre Dame is 88th in the country in rush defense, giving up 5.1ypc thru 2 games.
• Did Michigan get a little rough after plays were over? Watch the bottom of the screen in this clip, and judge for yourself.

The Irish program moves forward from a difficult loss against Michigan by facing Michigan State this weekend in Notre Dame Stadium - the same Michigan State team that the following can be attributed to:

• Has won 6 straight games in Notre Dame stadium (last win for the Irish vs MSU at home - 1993!)
• Upset by Central Michigan at home last week, 29-27, on a last second field goal
• Predicted by many in the pre-season (including VaticanSmoke) to defeat Notre Dame

The keys to this game are the non-statistical hurdles that both teams must face. Which team can respond coming off a crushing loss? Can Notre Dame win with the added pressure of the Michigan loss? Can the Irish final break the spell of the Spartans in Notre Dame stadium? On the surface it looks as if Michigan State has a strong line on both sides of the ball, and strong linebackers - but that's it. Notre Dame should be able to pass the ball, largely because no one has come close to stopping them yet. The Irish are going to have issues defending against the Michigan State run game, however. A more conventional attack with lack of a proficient passing game should make this task easier for the Irish than the Spartans' attempt to stop the Irish aerial attack.

Needless to say, this is a critical game for the program and especially for Weis. If the Irish are going to have a successful season, it starts with a good ole fashioned beat down on Saturday. Mark D'Antonio is not a coach that gets beat down often, given his conservative run the ball and stop the run approach. Many Irish fans are eager to see how this team responds to the often cliched "adversity". Game preview on Friday.

Tough Times Don't Last . . .

Tough loss for the Irish against the rival Wolverines on Saturday,
falling 38-34 on a td in the final 10 seconds. More details on the
stats will come later. The main question that lingers is "If not on
Saturday, then when?". The Irish continue to make strides on both
sides of the ball and in the talent department. Jimmy Clausen is the
best Irish qb I've ever seen - right now. Our WRs are uncoverable. And
we are finally starting to run the ball.

Many will criticize late game play calling, a missed field goal, very
suspect officiating, or the inability to catch a pass for a game
sealing first down. Those are all valid criticisms. Just remember when
perfection is required from the officials and our offense to win -
something is wrong. That something is our defensive line - a predicted
weakness that is far worse than initially feared.

The Irish were never a great team - just a good one. They still are,
and a BCS bowl is still there for the taking. Will they bounce back?
We'll see this weekend, when the Michigan St Spartans roll into South
Bend to try and erase their upset blues, while attempting to continue
the amazing 6 game winning streak in Notre Dame stadium.

The Irish should win all remaining games, except the USC game, by 14
points at least. And they should be within 7 pts of USC. That gives us
10-2 and a Sugar or Fiesta bowl birth. There - I feel better for
typing out this real and demanding request. Make no mistake though -
its a doable one. This Irish offense is better than any of us imagined
and USC is the only game the Irish won't be favored to win by a
touchdown or more. It starts on Saturday against the Spartans.

Michigan Game Preview

Hail! to the victors valiant

Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes

Hail! Hail! to Michigan

The leaders and best!

Hail! to the victors valiant

Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes

Hail! Hail! to Michigan,

The champions of the West!

As a blogger, I try to be impartial, objective, and to remove bias from my posts. Last week I picked Notre Dame to win but to struggle. Nevada was the perfect school to prepare a well thought out preview for - I had no feeling about the school previously, with minimal prior knowledge to skew my preparation. The same cannot be said for the week 2 opponent of the Irish - the University of Michigan Wolverines.

So lets go ahead and get this out of the way: I hate Michigan. Reading the chorus to their fight song makes me hate them even more. Seriously - has there ever been a more desperate and screaming attempt to say "We are better than you! We are the best! Look at us!"?

Every team has a rival that their fans "hate". In the sports world, "hate" is a much less powerful word than in real life. Of course I respect the University of Michigan (mostly), and definitely their tradition, fan base, stadium, and players. The parallel would not apply if I "hated" another human being. When it comes to "hate" for Notre Dame fans, only two schools really come to mind: Michigan and USC.

While USC has been our rival for a longer period of time, the Michigan rivalry has been more heated. Numerous times during the years, Michigan tried to stop the series of games between the teams, not playing the Irish for 36 years after being beaten by Notre Dame in 1943. "They need us more than we need them", the great Michigan coach Bo Schembechler said. When Knute Rockne and the Irish tried to join the Big 10 conference during the 20s, a blackball effect was orchestrated by Michigan AD Fielding Yost. Known as being anti-immigrant and anti-Catholic - both of which were applicable to Notre Dame - Yost even threatened other Big 10 teams that would play the Irish. Traveling outside the midwest was the answer for Notre Dame - and the end result is a national following, filled with inter-sectional rivalries like USC, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Navy, Army, etc. Please keep this history in mind as you root for the Irish on Saturday.

Now for a little bit of a game preview via keys to the game for the Irish.

When Michigan has the ball . . .

• Confusing the youngsters - Michigan will be starting a true freshman QB (Tate Forcier), and playing another in the speed Denard Robinson. Forcier is a great balance of throw and run for the spread offense, whereas Denard is more of a pure running threat. The Irish will give up some runs, but we must continue to blitz and throw confusing coverages in the hopes of a big play.
• Limit big plays on the ground - I feel confident about our ability to defend the deep pass against a younger QB and with our experienced/capable secondary. Nevada was able to get too many 9 to 10 yard runs, and we must find a way to slow down this attack from Michigan. Will be THE key to the game.

When the Irish have the ball . . .

• Get Michigan to respect the pass - Typically coaches establish the run, then pass. Today's college game requires an opposite approach, in my opinion. Until we pass Michigan out of their aggressive and capable front 7, the Irish will struggle to run the ball. Running the ball for the Irish to the tune of 150 yards will be essential in winning this game, whether is for big short yardage plays or just running some clock.
• Hit the Tight End - Kyle Rudolph is going to have some opportunities to make plays. Last year, the Irish threw up top on Michigan quite a bit with Golden Tate. I expect Michigan to prepare for the deep pass, and stop the run. That leaves Rudolph in 1 on 1 coverage against a linebacker or safety. We MUST exploit this expected tactic.

All hatred for the Wolverines aside, this will be a great football game. The underdog does incredibly well, so I would rather the Wolverines be slight favorites. The Irish must start winning and dominating some games like this - on the road, against a quality opponent - if we are going to be a BCS caliber program. Time to put up, or shut up. And I think they do.

Vatican Smoke prediction:

Notre Dame 31 Michigan 24

Jimmy Clausen throws for 3 TDs, including his first INT of the season. The Irish get an interception returned for a TD on an errant pass from Forcier for the 4 TD, and a late FG to comfort the masses by Freshman Nick Tausch.

Have a great weekend, and GO IRISH!

Nevada Post Game

A very good start for the Irish felt more like a relief than anything else. The talent is there but getting off to a good start often releases a lot of built up pressure on the program - letting things flow a bit easier. A few fast facts about the game:

• The Irish dismantled the Nevada Wolfpack 35-0, marking the first shutout of the Charlie Weis era. Last shutout was 7 years ago in 2002 against Rutgers, my last home game as a senior.
• Jimmy Clausen finished 15 for 18 with 2 of the 3 incompletions being "drops". Combined with 4 TDs, Jimmy had a near perfect day.
• The Irish rushed for 178 yards, but more importantly, 4.3 YPC on 41 attempts
• The Irish allowed ZERO sacks in the game (kudos to the offensive line)
• Nevada rushed for 153 yards on 29 carries, good for a not so hot for the Irish 5.3 YPC
• Nevada was 2 for 11 converting 3rd downs. The Irish finished 6 for 12 on 3rd down conversions
• Notre Dame finished with 2 sacks of Nevada and 4 tackles for a loss.
• 20 (!) new Irish players saw gametime for the first time in their freshman or redshirt freshman seasons

As for my predicted score of 38-27, close for the Irish but not for the Wolfpack. Kyle Rudolph's opening TD was correctly predicted, and was in the ballpark predicting Jimmy's day. You can check out my game prediction here if you like.

A few post game tidbits for you:

• The "Real" Score - The Irish deserved to win by at least 3 to 4 touchdowns, but not 35-0. That said, Nevada could move the ball between the 20s but not inside. There is something about this defense that turns on when a team is closing in on the end zone - even last year it was apparent. Whether is a big 2nd down sack forcing a 3rd and long, or a big tackle on 3rd down, the Irish defense makes the most of every opportunity they achive (or is given to them).
• Depth Building - To play as many youngsters as we did was also a huge plus. Good programs develop depth by playing their backups early and often - which the Irish were able to do on Saturday. Even backup QB Dayne Crist got in the game for a good period of time. After Sam Bradford went down, every team knows that a backup QB is just one play away from being thrust into the spotlight. 3 Offensive lineman on the 2nd team got reps with the first team during the 1st half, another huge bonus.
• Offensive Formations Galore - Charlie's mantra is that he uses multiple formations to run common plays - confusing the defense and gaining synergies on offense. Multiple tight ends is probably Weis's best formation - and one that is seen less in college than in the pros. The Irish were able to run about 40% of the plays with 2 tight ends, as opposed to the prior 2 years where we lacked the depth to run multiple tight end formations. Look for the offense to excel simply because of the formations now available to Weis due to our TE depth.
• Freshman Impact - Manti Te'o (pictured above) is going to be a beast at linebacker. On his first play he blitzed, was out of the play, but then chased the play down from the backside to hit Kaepernick for a huge tackle. He had two other tackles/hits in the second half that were 2 of the more powerful tackles I have seen by an Irish defender in years (see above). His playing time will gradually increase as he gains a better grasp of the defense, in line with our game plan. Backup RB and kick returner Theo Reddick did a nice job last week as well. The scatback has some explosiveness and should be fun to watch.

NBC broadcast is still a bit cheesy, but much less so than year's past. Pat Hayden is fine, and Tom Hammond is pretty bland and painful to listen to. The computer graphics and animations, along with the music, are much better this year.

Below is a good summary of all the key plays in the game - a good, efficient watch. Watch it, then forget about it. One of our most hated rivals awaits us at week's end. Check back later this week for some good Michigan vs Notre Dame info. Early line in Vegas - Irish favored by 3.5.