Washington Huskies Preview

Notre Dame (3-1) tees it off at 2:30pm central time on Saturday vs. the Washington Huskies (2-2). The Irish are a 13 point favorite over the vastly improved Huskies, who are 0-7 all time versus Notre Dame. Weather in South Bend looks to be cool at about 50 degrees, with the chance of rain at 60%. The Irish have a bye next week before playing the USC Trojans on October 17th. With the bye week, hopefully the Irish are fully focused on the Huskies and entering the SC game at 4-1. 

What to expect . . . when Washington has the ball:

Jake Locker is good  -  Scouts are starting to notice, and some, like Wes Bunting, have proclaimed Locker to be the #1 overall NFL prospect for THIS YEAR. Wow. On the same board, Clausen is #14. And I'm not talking quarterbacks, I am talking overall. Locker has a lot of the qualities you can't teach - size (6'3", 230 pounds), speed (4.5 40 yrd dash - maybe faster), and arm strength. His accuracy has improved as he finally has been asked to be a pocket passer by new coach Steve Sarkisian - unlike the patchwork of an offense run by his former coach, Ty Willingham. The main thing Locker lacks is experience in a pro style offense, since he has only been a pocket passer for 4 games this season. The Irish are going to have to force Locker into some mistakes and keep him at or below his current 59% completion rate. 

By air or by ground?  -  Washington certainly will look for offensive balance, a staple of any pro style offense. The Huskies use similar schemes as USC, with the head coach (Steve Sarkisian) and defensive coordinator (Nick Holt) both hailing from the 2008 USC staff. However, the Huskies are ranked #94 in the country in rushing yards, yet #38 in passing. Certainly having played USC and LSU, those rushing stats are likely skewed and should improve. Expect Washington to attack the Irish on the ground and in the short passing game. While the Irish performed admirably against the run last week, the short passing game on our blitzes is still the way to nail the Irish. I expect the Irish to do another solid job in the area of run defense, but hopefully not at the expense of the short passing game. 

Te'o?   Word has it that the Irish are veeeerry close to unleashing the ubertalented Hawaiian linebacker Manti Te'o. Clearly the Irish defense is doing below expectations, and clearly Te'o has the speed, size, and instincts that no one on the defense has. Need a good zone / QB spy for Locker, that occasionally blitzes? Here is your guy. Look for a few flashes of brilliance from Te'o. 

Be careful when blitzing  -  In the first 3 games, the Irish blitzed an estimated 75% of plays - vs Purdue, an estimated 55%. Clearly the lowered blitz % helped at least keep the opposition guessing. The real problem with blitzing against Locker is containment. If Locker gets out of the pocket on a blitz, there is a decent chance he will have green pastures and could run for some major yards. Locker's scrambling will be the best offensive weapon Washington will have on Saturday - mark it down. Look for some type of safety or linebacker "spy" coverage - where one defender has eyes on Locker at all times from the middle of the field. This defender will be able to support the run, play some zone defense against the pass, and (attempt) to keep Locker contained. Let's make Locker pass the ball to the average wideouts or hand the ball off to the mediocre running backs - or at the minimum, have to make at least one tackler miss when he runs. Hopefully Tenuta-blitz has a good plan up his sleeves. 

What to expect . . . when the Irish have the ball:

Stats and rainy weather say attack the ground first . . . But the Irish won't. The strength of Washington's defense is the linebackers, ranked by some as one of the top linebacker corps in the Pac 10. This group of linebackers is similar to Michigan St - good tacklers, tough against blocks, and very experienced. Weis loves to force teams with good linebackers into putting more defensive backs on the field - thus taking a few of the linebackers off the field. Just like North Carolina last year, and Michigan St this year, Weis does this by spreading the defense out with 4 and 5 wide offensive sets. The weather (rainy) and Washington's weak run defense (94th in the country) seem counter to this strategy, as does Jimmy Clausen's turf toe, which will give him pain in his right plant foot all season. I don't expect the Irish to throw it all day - in fact, I expect the Irish to run from some of these spread sets. Weis should be able to get the defense on their heels defending the pass, then run the ball. As soon as the Huskies adjust, Weis will pass some more. Establishing the pass - not the run - has always been Weis's way of forcing a defense's hand. 

Plenty of Wildcat . . . err, I mean the "Lepre-cat"  -  The Irish have apparently renamed the Wildcat to the "Leprecat", which sounds a bit weird but whatever. Most realize that the Leprecat is a run first formation. Many do not realize the Wildcat is a version of one of the oldest offenses in all of football - the Single Wing. The key to this formation is numbers - since the QB is a running threat, that leaves one extra blocker for run plays. The offense is never outnumbered by blitzers - giving the offense a clear advantage. I expect the Irish to use the Leprecat against Washington not only to help minimize their linebackers, but also because I dont believe Washington has seen any Wildcat this season. I could be wrong, but USC, LSU, and Stanford likely don't feature the formation. 

More 4/5 Wide and Leprecat  -  Both of these offensive extremes will be used brilliantly by Weis on Saturday. Each formation will be used to minimize the biggest strength of the Huskies - Linebackers. Weis undeniably is a fantastic playcaller - and he is finally hitting his stride in the college game. Best example of that? The Leprecat. Weis was not familiar with the formation - but that didn't stop him from studying the scheme and installing it in the offseason. As the Leprecat continues to evolve, look for the formation to gain more and more attention nationally each week. Expect some new wrinkles as the season progresses, but also expect the Irish to improve execution of the basics.  Weis is going to call a brilliant game offensively this Saturday against the Huskies. 

Three things bother me about this game: the rain, Clausen's toe, and Jake Locker. We are a better offensive team than Washington, so the rain could actually favor the Irish. Contrary to popular opinion, rain often helps offenses more than defenses, since the surface is harder for defenders to navigate while reacting to the offense. Clausen's toe is a certainly a concern - but clearly his throws were as good as needed at the end of the Purdue game. Mentally he made one mistake on his only interception of the season - but the mistake was not physical or related to the toe. That leaves Locker  -  how do we contain him? Keeping Locker in the pocket will be important, as will forcing him to pass to beat us. For all the NFL scouting and gushing over Locker's talents, he is still only completing 59% of his passes, with 6 TDs to 3 INTs. If we make Locker pass and don't give the Huskies easy field position or turnovers, I think its going to be very difficult for Locker to outpass Clausen. 

The Irish should win this game by two touchdowns, but I don't think they will. While Weis calls a great game, sometimes he has a tendancy to switch up the offense just for the sake of doing so, leading to stalled drives in key situations. The Irish defense is not quite ready to dominate a game yet, if ever. Expect the Irish to control the game with a balanced offensive performance - with the game never in doubt - but not to cover Vegas' "Notre Dame Adjusted" betting spread. 

Prediction:

Clausen throws for 2 TDs, while Golden Tate runs for 1 in the Leprecat and Robert Hughes adds another. Manti Te'o causes a fumble and finishes with 4 tackles, including 1 sack and 1 tackle for loss. 

IRISH    31       HUSKIES   21

(Vatican Smoke's record is 3-1 straight up picking the winner, 1-3 against the spread)

3-1

The Irish passed a road test this past weekend at Purdue, winning on a very late TD toss by Clausen to sophomore tight end Kyle Rudolph with 24 seconds remaining. On a 4th and goal play nonetheless. The TD sealed the victory at 24-21, in a game that previous Irish teams likely would have lost.

While many are discouraged that the Irish needed a late score to put away Purdue, there are lots of positive trends and successes that came out of this game. Personally, I feel better after this game than after the Michigan State game. It feels like we won the game - not relying on the opponent to lose it.

The positives:

Run Defense - Irish limited the Boilers and the #2 overall rusher in the country (Bolden) to 74 yards rushing. Interestingly enough, the Boilers rushed for 170 yards vs Oregon at Autzen Stadium. Success.

Less Blitzing & More Cover 2 - It has been estimated that the Irish blitzed 80% of passing situations in the first 3 games. The Irish blitzed about 55% vs Purdue (per Tim Prister - Irish Illustrated), employing much more cover 2 zone. The zone coverage and blitz anticipation preceding no blitz clearly helped the Irish defense. Purdue finished with 289 yards passing (same amount as vs Oregon), which is not great at all - but clearly better than Michigan State.

Rushing Offense - The Irish rushed for 167 yards, winning the rushing battle, and putting Charlie Weis at 18-0 when he wins the rushing battle (If that's not a telling stat, I don't know what is). Unfortunately the 2nd half run game slowed down a bit, or rather failed to result in 2nd half points. The Irish finished at 3.9 ypc for the game, a tick below ideal of about 4.5 ypc or more.

Offensive Wrinkles - Missing 3 of their best offensive players in Armando Allen, Michael Floyd, and Clausen (1/2 the game), many knew this game would be difficult for the Irish offense. The 2nd and 3rd quarters (until the 4th and 10 call) were easily the most brilliant stretch of offensive playcalling I have ever seen from Weis. Employing a genius dose of the Wildcat, 4 running backs (Gray, Hughes, Riddick, & even WR Golden Tate), and numerous new running plays from varying formations, the Irish were able to control the 2nd and 3rd quarters with minimal pass attempts by rookie QB Dayne Crist. The strategy looked to be the perfect way to grind out a win on the road with injured stars. Unfortunately the momentum changed and the Irish were not able to continue this approach - but for awhile, the Irish rushing attack was unstoppable. Don't think Weis will not build off these successes and look to include more of this in his gameplans going forward.

Less Penalties - The Irish were penalized less than their opponent for the first time in 3 weeks, earning 6 penalties costing 43 yards (Purdue had 13 for 103 yards). A few procedural illegal formation penalties negated big plays, and one TD to Golden Tate in particular was called back because Duval Kamara (WR) was not on the line of scrimmage. Amazingly - a Big East officiating crew handled the game, not a Big 10 crew. SURPRISE SURPRISE.

Field Goals - Freshman Nick Tausch continues his solid placekicking, nailing a 42 yarder in the 1st quarter. He is now 5/6 on the season including 3/4 on the road.

Clutch Finish on Offense - 3 minutes to go, down by 4. Clausen made numerous big time throws. Best throw of the game was a perfectly thrown pass to Robby Parris on 3rd and 14 from about midfield. The rifle (and I mean rifle) pass to win the game to Rudolph on 4th and goal was an NFL caliber throw - both via the accuracy and power. Clausen and the offense expected to score on that final drive - and it showed.

Certainly there were negatives:

Blown Coverage on Purdue's 4th quarter TD to take the lead
Poor punting most of the game
Still too many offensive line/procedural penalties

Poor Coaching Decision by Weis - Going for a 4th and 10 late in the 3rd quarter on the Purdue 34 yard line. After the ensuing timeout preceding the play, the Irish stuck with the pass play for the 10 yards. Dayne Crist was sacked for a 7 yard loss, as Ross-Ade Stadium erupted, clearing giving Purdue momentum they didn't have. Purdue followed on the first play on offense with a game changing 28 yard gain. If Weis punts the ball, less momentum if any is transferred, and the Boilers are forced to go an additional 20 to 40 yards. 4th and 5 or 6 - maybe - but not 4th and 10 when your defense was clearly winning the battles and you have a limited offense with a rookie QB.

Despite the past 3 games being closer than they should have been, you can't deny the following: the Irish are on pace to meet the Trojans with a 4-1 record in what will be THE defining game of the Weis era. Also, the Irish have found a way to win 2 games the past 2 weeks that they wouldn't have won in previous years. This Irish team has now overcome three 4th quarter deficits in each of the last 3 weeks, going 2-1 in those games. Clausen and the offense clearly have shown they can score when the game is on the line - which will certainly come in handy later in the year. Later in the season, the Irish are going to greatly benefit from these close victories and late offensive successes. You watch.

This week - Irish vs Washington. Irish are 13 point favorites over the improving Huskies. Jimmy Clausen and Armando Allen will play and practice today, and should be at or very near 100%. I expect a high scoring game that the Irish better show up for. The Huskies will be a tough opponent, coming off a loss. Based on how the season has gone thus far, a close down to the wire finish would not be surprising - in fact that seems more likely than a blowout.

Purdue Game Preview: "It's Purdue Football!!"

The Irish head down to West Lafayette, IN on Saturday to play Purdue in a nationally televised game on ESPN (7pm central). Purdue can score, but certainly will defer to the Irish in team talent. Apparently the full fledged a$$holes think they have an equalizer - the dreaded crowd "black out" and "glow in the dark" t-shirts made especially for this game. Purdue has also released pictures of the special game ball to be used - quite simply, amazing! Clearly Purdue fans have responded, with as nearly 8000 tickets remain available. And remember - its Purdue football!! 

All joking aside, the first road night game on national television of the season will be a test for the Irish. Purdue is still an offense-first program as it was under Joe Tiller, who was replaced by 1st year coach Danny Hope this season. The offense is a bit more focused on the run than Tiller's "basketball on grass", which could give the Boilers a decent shot. Some key questions:

When Purdue has the ball . . . 

• Can the Irish stop Ralph Bolden at running back? The sophomore running back is the #2 RB in the country in yardage, rushing for an a very strong 6.8 ypc and 140 ypg. The 5' 9" stack is very quick and his stature seems to be an advantage in getting through the gaps unnoticed. Bolden has achieved these numbers against Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Oregon - 3 decent teams. Expect the Irish to perform well against the run - continuing the trend that started in the 2nd half of the Michigan St game. The Irish limited Michigan St to 105 yards rushing on 25 carries in the game, but only 26 yards in the 2nd half on the ground.  
• Can the Irish defense pressure and cover? Expect the Irish to put a focus on stopping the ground game and Bolden, forcing first year QB Joey Elliot and the average Purdue passing attack to beat the Irish thru the air. Can we bring pressure, yet still cover on the plays when Elliot is ready for our Tenuta-blitz? As I mentioned in my previous post, the Irish pressure and coverage schemes thru 3 games seem a bit "out of sync". Teams are countering the Irish blitz with quick passing using slants and middle of the field short routes. We must put our corners and linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage and the receivers. This makes us more susceptible to the deep pass  -  but I say let our talented corners cover. Lots more difficult to cover short slants than deep go routes. 
• Will there be any defensive lineup changes?  Clearly the Irish defense is struggling, but the company line this week has been "it's not the scheme - it's just players missing a few plays". Continued rotation of players on the defensive line is expected (9 lineman played against MSU last week). If any lineup changes are made, expect Manti Te'o to get more snaps in place of Toryan Smith, with Te'o lining up at weak side backer while Brian Smith moves from weak to middle. With Purdue's rushing attack, I think Te'o won't get significantly more snaps than previous weeks. 

When Notre Dame has the ball . . .

• Will injuries be a factor? Jimmy Clausen and Armando Allen have been very limited in practice this week. Yet it appears Clausen will play for sure, and Allen will be a game time decision. Michael Floyd's effect will be felt (he's out for the year), but I think a full speed Clausen, Allen, Rudolph, and Tate can compensate and keep the ball moving. Good news is that Clausen played the entire second half last week w/o Floyd and with the turf toe injury, and the offense didn't miss a beat. If Clausen doesn't play, I am intrigued at what Dayne Crist can do. Weis has been itching to play the 6'4" true Sophomore, obviously for a reason. Allen will almost certainly have less carries even if he plays, so look for running backs Jonas Gray and Freshman Theo Riddick to step up.
• Run or pass?  The Irish have looked their best in 5 WR formations this year - thru 3 games, they have basically been unstoppable in the formation. Do the Irish continue this, or try to pound it out against Purdue on the ground? As good as our passing game is, expect the Irish to try to run it first. Last year, the mediocre Irish rushing attack amassed 200 yards on the ground against Purdue, winning 38-21. Would love to see 4 RBs play, and something like 250 yards team rushing. Would be boring, but that's how good teams win when they are on the road or hampered by injury. 
• Who will win the "replace Michael Floyd" competition at WR? Michael Floyd is irreplaceable. Yet someone is going to have to produce in his spot. This game looks to be an open competition between Duval Kamara, Robby Parris, and Shaq Evans. Duval Kamara is the experienced Junior that is big and has shown spurts of being a very good WR. He is easily the best blocking WR the Irish have, which cannot be underestimated in screen and swing pass heavy Weis offense. Expect runs, swing passes, and screen passes to Kamara's side of the formation. Would love to see the explosive freshman Shaq Evans step up - something many Notre Dame fans have been very anxious to see all year. If Evans doesn't step up soon, I fear he will be unable to secure the confidence of the coaching staff until next season. 

If Notre Dame brings their A game, this is a 20 point easy victory - bring your B game, and this one is winnable but could get interesting. The Irish will likely have a gameplan centered upon running the ball, which is quickly becoming a strength. Clausen will protected and ready to play  -  expect lots of screen, swing, and then a few deep passes whenever Golden Tate is left in 1 on 1 coverage.  

Bottom line: Purdue's defense quite simply will not stop the Irish unless the Irish stop themselves. The Irish defense finally scores a touchdown on a long interception return by Safety (and Tennessean) Harrison Smith. The Irish offense cruises with an impressive, balanced attack. 

Prediction:

IRISH   40     PURDUE    23

(for the season, VS is 2-1 on predictions, 0-3 against the spread)

Defense thats just offensive

Clearly the Irish defense is struggling. The Irish defense ranks 94th overall in the country - 91st against the pass, and 74th against the run. Turrrrable, turrrrable, turrrrable. But why? Many point to scheme, the defensive line, coaching, or just lack of talent as the causes of the performance. Likely its a combination of issues. Here are a few to ponder:

Scheme  -  Many people think the Irish are blitzing ourselves out of plays. That's partially true. The talent of the blitzers is one thing - but one issue is the lack of surprise with the blitzing. The opposition knows the Irish will blitz roughly 75% of the time, and their passing offenses thus far have been perfectly designed around 3 step drops by the QB, using slants, drags, and short hitch routes. These short routes are very difficult for cornerbacks to defend - particularly with as much cushion (sometimes 10 yards) as Irish CBs are giving to opposing WRs. The blitz and cornerback cushion limit big plays at the cost of the shorter routes. The coverage just doesn't match the short routes teams are using to counter the expected Irish blitz. Hopefully the coaches will get the coverage and blitzing more "in sync". Just once I would love to see all our linebackers on the line of scrimmage - clearly blitzing - only to drop back into zone coverage looking for a slant route. Young QBs are so worried about getting rid of the ball against the Irish, maybe we pick one off.  

Tackling  -  Great post here by the guys at Blue Gray Sky. Defensive Tackle Ian Williams, and Middle linebacker Toryan Smith have typically been on the ground or just out of position on most plays. Gaping holes in the middle = easy rushing yards. You can scheme and coach all you want, but when players over pursue (Toryan) or lose their balance (Ian), they must be held accountable. Maybe the players should be more well coached - but there comes a point where players must execute by winning the 1 on 1 battles. 

Talent  -  We will give out midseason grades to compare with the preseason positional previews here at Vatican Smoke. So far, the defensive line has majorly disappointed, the linebackers have slightly disappointed, and the cornerbacks have been disappointing. I have a feeling talent is not the issue in the secondary - but rather the lack of pressure combined with our soft coverage not quite ready for the shorter routes teams are using. But clearly we are undermanned on the defensive line. The linebackers are young and talented enough to play much better. The recruiting misses of 2005 thru 2007 on the defensive line are coming home to roost just like the offensive line misses in 2003-2005 came to fruition in 2007. 

1st Down  -  Tenuta emphasizes "winning on 1st down" as much as all defensive coaches do. I'd say that first down is even more important in Tenuta's scheme, because blitzing works much more effectively in 2nd and 3rd and long than shorts. The Irish are a putrid 95th in the country in first down defense. The Irish defensive improvement, if its happens, will highly correlate with 1st down performance. Fixing those gaping holes in the middle will go a long way in this department. 

Red Zone  -  Amazingly, the Irish defense ranks 5th in the country in red zone defense. A fumble by Nevada, an interception by MSU last weekend, and a missed FG by Michigan all have aided this stat. I have a feeling that this statistic is an anomaly - but maybe not. Red Zone Defense is critical, clearly, and the Irish have performed darn well so far. Lets see if this ranking holds up after a few more games. 

A great play call that should have ended the MSU game 2 plays earlier  -  You can read my post on Irish message board ND nation by clicking here - including video and more detail. I describe a play that could have won the game, and was clearly a solid playcall by the defensive coaches. The play I am describing is a 3rd down and 6 on Michigan St's final drive, at the Irish 26 yard line. Ray Herring, playing nickelback (cornerback on the slot receiver, essentially), defends/tips pass up in the air, only to be caught anyway by the Michigan St WR near the ND sideline, falling out of bounds, for the first down. Herring faked the blitz, then dropped back into apparent man to man coverage on the slot receiver. In fact he was in zone coverage at the first down marker/flat area - and he broke at the perfect time on the outside 10 yard hitch route route run by the WR, who appeared to be wide open.  Bottom line - Herring did not execute via an easy pass deflection out of bounds or interception. The tip out of bounds forces a game tying 42 yard field goal, giving the Irish the ball back with 1:10 in a tie game, at worst. An interception ends the game. Two plays later the Spartans miss a wide open receiver in the end zone that would never have happened. Blame some playcalls by the defensive staff, but players must make plays. 

The Purdue game preview should be up on Friday. Purdue should be excited and ready to play  -  its a home night game, nationally televised on ESPN, and they have planned a "black out" with glow in the dark Purdue tshirts. What a bunch of full fledged a$$holes. The Irish offense should have little problem moving the ball and scoring. However, the offensive is banged up with Armando Allen and Jimmy Clausen nursing some injuries this week - and it would certainly be nice if the defense made some plays, avoiding another shootout. Winning on the road in a hostile environment is never easy - and this will be a decent test for the Irish before tougher road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford later in the season. Again, I am anxious to see how the Irish respond. 

2-1

The Irish finally defeated Sparty on Saturday, winning 33-30 in a down to the wire finish. Charlie Weis has now broken two streaks that the previous two ND coaches Davie & Willingham could not - beating Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium, and winning a bowl game.

Saturday was at the same time a huge relief and a huge concern. The defense clearly is struggling to stop the pass and the run, giving up 459 yards of total offense and 30 points to an average offensive team in Michigan State. And certainly the Spartans failed to capitalize on some defensive miscues (one at the end of the game in particular). That said, the Irish deserve to be 2-1 and are still technically in play for a solid season. Certainly it's a positive to see the Irish take advantage of the late Spartan miscue, which incidentally came on the first real QB pressure of the day.

Lots of things have to happen for the Irish to finish with that 10-2 record and a BCS berth. Two key questions that must be answered in order to reach that goal, at this stage of the season:

• Without Floyd, can the offense keep scoring 34 points per game? With Floyd out, defenses are going to double team Golden Tate. Kyle Rudolph and the other wide receivers - time to step up. Expect Weis to counter with a very heavy dose of Rudolph, who's size and hands create a mismatch with nearly every linebacker and safety in the country. Whether its Rudolph or Shaq Evans or other wideouts - Charlie is going to have to change the playbook and replace Floyd's production.
• Can the Irish win on the road? During 2007 and 2008, the Irish have gone 4-7 on the road, with 2 road wins in each season. 2007 featured road wins against UCLA and Stanford, while 2008 road wins were Navy (in Baltimore) and Washington. A pattern has developed of playing poorly on the road against decent teams. A convincing road victory in front of a national primetime audience this Saturday night would be good preparation for the more difficult road games coming up in November against Pittsburgh and Stanford.

I know what you're thinking: why no key question about our defense? The Irish defense has been terrible, no doubt. But the unit should improve after getting exposed early in the season. Expect a bend but not break defense than will start to limit most opponents to scores in the 20s while the offense keeps scoring near the 30s.

We'll learn a little bit about the Irish on Saturday night when we face an overmatched Purdue team on the road. Winning a night game on the road in the first game without our best WR won't be easy (that's why Vegas has the line currently as Irish favored by only 8.5 points). Purdue's not to be mistaken for a good team, however - but a decisive victory with a solid offensive performance would be a great start to answering both of these questions.