Purdue Game Preview: "It's Purdue Football!!"

The Irish head down to West Lafayette, IN on Saturday to play Purdue in a nationally televised game on ESPN (7pm central). Purdue can score, but certainly will defer to the Irish in team talent. Apparently the full fledged a$$holes think they have an equalizer - the dreaded crowd "black out" and "glow in the dark" t-shirts made especially for this game. Purdue has also released pictures of the special game ball to be used - quite simply, amazing! Clearly Purdue fans have responded, with as nearly 8000 tickets remain available. And remember - its Purdue football!! 

All joking aside, the first road night game on national television of the season will be a test for the Irish. Purdue is still an offense-first program as it was under Joe Tiller, who was replaced by 1st year coach Danny Hope this season. The offense is a bit more focused on the run than Tiller's "basketball on grass", which could give the Boilers a decent shot. Some key questions:

When Purdue has the ball . . . 

• Can the Irish stop Ralph Bolden at running back? The sophomore running back is the #2 RB in the country in yardage, rushing for an a very strong 6.8 ypc and 140 ypg. The 5' 9" stack is very quick and his stature seems to be an advantage in getting through the gaps unnoticed. Bolden has achieved these numbers against Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Oregon - 3 decent teams. Expect the Irish to perform well against the run - continuing the trend that started in the 2nd half of the Michigan St game. The Irish limited Michigan St to 105 yards rushing on 25 carries in the game, but only 26 yards in the 2nd half on the ground.  
• Can the Irish defense pressure and cover? Expect the Irish to put a focus on stopping the ground game and Bolden, forcing first year QB Joey Elliot and the average Purdue passing attack to beat the Irish thru the air. Can we bring pressure, yet still cover on the plays when Elliot is ready for our Tenuta-blitz? As I mentioned in my previous post, the Irish pressure and coverage schemes thru 3 games seem a bit "out of sync". Teams are countering the Irish blitz with quick passing using slants and middle of the field short routes. We must put our corners and linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage and the receivers. This makes us more susceptible to the deep pass  -  but I say let our talented corners cover. Lots more difficult to cover short slants than deep go routes. 
• Will there be any defensive lineup changes?  Clearly the Irish defense is struggling, but the company line this week has been "it's not the scheme - it's just players missing a few plays". Continued rotation of players on the defensive line is expected (9 lineman played against MSU last week). If any lineup changes are made, expect Manti Te'o to get more snaps in place of Toryan Smith, with Te'o lining up at weak side backer while Brian Smith moves from weak to middle. With Purdue's rushing attack, I think Te'o won't get significantly more snaps than previous weeks. 

When Notre Dame has the ball . . .

• Will injuries be a factor? Jimmy Clausen and Armando Allen have been very limited in practice this week. Yet it appears Clausen will play for sure, and Allen will be a game time decision. Michael Floyd's effect will be felt (he's out for the year), but I think a full speed Clausen, Allen, Rudolph, and Tate can compensate and keep the ball moving. Good news is that Clausen played the entire second half last week w/o Floyd and with the turf toe injury, and the offense didn't miss a beat. If Clausen doesn't play, I am intrigued at what Dayne Crist can do. Weis has been itching to play the 6'4" true Sophomore, obviously for a reason. Allen will almost certainly have less carries even if he plays, so look for running backs Jonas Gray and Freshman Theo Riddick to step up.
• Run or pass?  The Irish have looked their best in 5 WR formations this year - thru 3 games, they have basically been unstoppable in the formation. Do the Irish continue this, or try to pound it out against Purdue on the ground? As good as our passing game is, expect the Irish to try to run it first. Last year, the mediocre Irish rushing attack amassed 200 yards on the ground against Purdue, winning 38-21. Would love to see 4 RBs play, and something like 250 yards team rushing. Would be boring, but that's how good teams win when they are on the road or hampered by injury. 
• Who will win the "replace Michael Floyd" competition at WR? Michael Floyd is irreplaceable. Yet someone is going to have to produce in his spot. This game looks to be an open competition between Duval Kamara, Robby Parris, and Shaq Evans. Duval Kamara is the experienced Junior that is big and has shown spurts of being a very good WR. He is easily the best blocking WR the Irish have, which cannot be underestimated in screen and swing pass heavy Weis offense. Expect runs, swing passes, and screen passes to Kamara's side of the formation. Would love to see the explosive freshman Shaq Evans step up - something many Notre Dame fans have been very anxious to see all year. If Evans doesn't step up soon, I fear he will be unable to secure the confidence of the coaching staff until next season. 

If Notre Dame brings their A game, this is a 20 point easy victory - bring your B game, and this one is winnable but could get interesting. The Irish will likely have a gameplan centered upon running the ball, which is quickly becoming a strength. Clausen will protected and ready to play  -  expect lots of screen, swing, and then a few deep passes whenever Golden Tate is left in 1 on 1 coverage.  

Bottom line: Purdue's defense quite simply will not stop the Irish unless the Irish stop themselves. The Irish defense finally scores a touchdown on a long interception return by Safety (and Tennessean) Harrison Smith. The Irish offense cruises with an impressive, balanced attack. 

Prediction:

IRISH   40     PURDUE    23

(for the season, VS is 2-1 on predictions, 0-3 against the spread)