As described in the
previous post, we are re-evaluating the 10 positions that we ranked in the preseason. Each of the 10 positions were previewed in depth - including recruiting stars, depth chart, expectations etc. Check out the
positional previews here, to get a quick rundown of the details. The positions were ranked #10 (most worrisome) to #1 (most confident in) - and after 5 games of the 2009 season, we are going to re-rank the positions in the same countdown fashion - based on 5 games (half a season essentially) of actual production. And instead of 10 posts, we're doing it all right here in 1 post.
Lets dive right in, starting at #10 . . .
10. Cornerbacks (Preseason ranking - #2) - No position has been more disappointing than cornerback. The defensive line struggles were expected - but not the struggles of the star studded secondary. A preseason strength quickly evaporated into a weakness, as the Irish rank #110 in the country in pass defense, giving up 264 yards a game through the air (and only 2 interceptions by cornerbacks). For those that think recruiting rankings are worthless, here is your position - all 5 CBs that have played significant time this season for the Irish were ranked 4 star or above by Rivals.com. Most programs don't have 1 CB thats a 4 star, while the Irish boast 5. Whether the lack of pressure, a questionable defensive scheme, or just the lack of talent is the issue most hurting the secondary, things must change.
9. Defensive Line (Preseason ranking #8) - These guys have performed in line with expectations, fulfilling their promise as a team weakness. The lines' troubles were easily predicted by the recruiting misses between 2005 and 2007 - a prediction that highlights the importance of recruiting every position every year. The bright side is that the DLinemen have played better in each game this season, largely due a heavy rotation of fresh bodies. Unfortunately, we didn't start this substituting until some damage had been done in the Michigan game - easily the worst game for the defensive lineman. The move of Kapron Lewis Moore from End to Tackle on certain downs has helped free up some room for the premier defensive line talent - Ethan Johnson. The sophomore has been the lone bright spot, decently productive with 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, and 3 tackles for a loss despite the complete attention of opposing offensive lines. This unit's continued improvement is key for the Irish BCS hopes. Can fresh bodies and energy make up for the lack of depth and talent?
- Another disappointment, yet with a potential bright spot emerging. Good linebackers can compensate for poor DLine play. Unfortunately our linebackers havent been much better than the DLine. Brian Smith has led the LBs in tackles with 26 thru 5 games, but he has also failed to get off blocks consistently and missed far too many tackles for being the team's leader on defense. Toryan Smith started initially at MLB, before being replaced by uber-talented freshman Manti Te'o (Te'o is now the starting WLB, while Brian Smith moves from WLB to MLB). Telling stat - Te'o has 16 tackles with 1 start and limited action in the other 4 games. Toryan Smith has 14 tackles - with 4 starts. Te'o has officially been turned loose - and hopefully he can give the defense a spark.
7. Safety (Preseason ranking #6) - Harrison Smith and Kyle McCarthy have been about as expected. Steady, not spectacular, but solid. Each are the top tacklers on the team, with Harrison at 32 tackles to McCarthy's 49. Unfortunately, our safeties leading the team in tackles means the front 7 are missing tackles. While McCarthy has 3 big interceptions, Smith has none; in addition, both have missed some key tackles, particularly in the Washington game. While the front 7 asks a lot of these safeties tackling wise, McCarthy and Smith can do better. Expect both to make a few more big plays - Smith in particular.
6. Offensive Line (Preseason ranking #10) - The surprise of the season thus far, at least based on preseason expectations. The unit has paved the way for a 4.11 yards per carry rushing attack, averaging 148 yards per game. In addition, pass protection for Clausen has been great - only 9 sacks thru 5 games (including a few runs/slips in the rain, related to Clausen's foot injury). The Irish performance in particular on 3rd and short has been a major upgrade over past seasons. Finally we are an "average" rushing team (after being dreadful for 3 years) - and we need to stay there, at the minimum. While this unit has performed well in numerous spurts this season, especially against Michigan and Purdue - the key question is can they dominate an entire game , paving the way for the Irish ground attack? Another key question will be answered this weekend, as the Irish OLine face their toughest test yet.
5. Wide Receivers (Preseason ranking #3) - Tough call here. While Golden Tate and Michael Floyd have been fantastic thru the first 4 games, Floyd's injury exposed the issue highlighted in the preseason: who will step up as the 3rd WR? Passing teams need multiple options, particularly when injuries occur. Duval Kamara has disappointed, Robby Parris has been ok, and Shaq Evans is on the cusp but not quite there yet. I predicted Shaq would have emerged by now as the gamebreaker many expect the freshman to be. Shaq is going to be a major part of the offense in the 2nd half of the season, you can count on it. Why? Defenses cannot afford to give anything less than their full attention to Golden Tate, meaning Shaq, along with TE Kyle Rudolph, must make them pay. Luckily for us, Michael Floyd could be back as soon as the Pittsburgh game on November 14th.
4. Special Teams (Preseason ranking #5) - This unit has done a tad better than I expected, particularly in the FG unit. The coverage and return units have been very very average, while freshman Theo Riddick has shown potential on a few kickoff returns. Yes, the long TD kickoff return for a touchdown by Michigan was a backbreaker, and unacceptable for a coverage unit in a big game; but the field goal accuracy of freshman Nick Tausch likely won the Washington game, as he connected on 5/5 field goals. Tausch has been a fantastic 10 of 11 this season, missing just one 28 yarder at Michigan. What a great feeling it is to know that we have a kicker that is going to consistently do his job. If Tausch can keep his accuracy, and the return guys Theo Riddick and Golden Tate can break a couple, this unit could be further up this ranking.
3. Running Back (Preseason ranking #7) - Another surprise. The book on our running backs in the preseason was that each was solid, capable of grinding out yards when blocking was above average. Yet each of our backs was seen as someone who struggled to gain yards without proper blocking, and struggled to break long runs or numerous tackles. While neither has been spectacular, Armando Allen and Robert Hughes have both had moments of brilliance. Armando's game vs Michigan (141 yards rushing, 6.6 per carry) was the best RB game for the Irish in a few seasons. Hughes had his moments against Washington (6.2 ypc) and Purdue (4.5 ypc), while Jonas Gray has done solidly in a few carries. Freshman Theo Riddick appears to be the next Irish back to emerge, averaging 6.1 ypc on his handful of carries thus far. Depth and production have been very solid - but not perfect. The running game - the running backs in particular - is going to be critical in 2nd half games against solid defenses like Connecticut, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Stanford. Maintaining will not be good enough for this unit.
2. Tight End (Preseason ranking #9) - I was a bit off here. My initial low ranking of #9 for this group was based on two factors: the Irish lacked proven depth at TE behind stud Kyle Rudolph; and also, that lack of depth would significantly hinder the playcalling and formations at Weis's disposal. Historically Weis loves multiple TE sets; but this year, he's spread things out much more often going 4 and 5 wide. When we have used multiple tight ends - Mike Ragone and Bobby Burger have stepped up as very capable blocking TEs in the formations. Most importantly at this position, Kyle Rudolph has been absolutely spectacular. Weis deserves a ton credit for using Rudolph in numerous ways - in the slot, split wide, and on the line of scrimmage - essentially as another receiver. Moving Rudolph around has kept defenses on their heels, making it tougher to key on him and Golden Tate only. The result? Rudolph has acheived WR like numbers (21 receptions in 5 games, 2nd on the team to Golden Tate). Other than Jimmy Clausen, is there a more a player the Irish could ill afford to lose more than Rudolph?
1. Quarterback (Preseason ranking #1) - Got one right, finally. Clausen has been lights out, easily better than any Irish QB has been in recent memory. Clausen is
#1 in the country in passing efficiency - which is essentially the QB Rating of college football. He is averaging 309 passing yards per game, and currently has 12 TDs, despite playing sparingly in 1 game (Purdue) due to a foot injury. Backup Dayne Crist has performed well when called upon, creating a backup QB situation that is not the dropoff it typically has been during the Weis era. The question that remains for Jimmy Clausen's career - can he pass and lead the Irish against an elite defense like USC? We can't wait to see what he can do on Saturday.
While offensively the Irish are very confident and ready for the 2nd half of the season - they must continue to improve on the offensive side of the ball. Fewer penalties or better play calling down the stretch would have won the Michigan game. Converting in the red zone would have won the Washington game going away. And with 2nd half of the season games against the aforementioned tough defenses of UConn, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Stanford, the Irish are going to have to run the ball even better than the improved performance thus far. As for the defense . . . the Irish need a spark. Confidence appears to be the major issue, particularly in the secondary. While he may not be a cornerback or safety, Manti Te'o could be the spark the Irish need. The Hawaiian's calm demeanor could rub off on the Irish - allowing them to focus consistently, not jumping from emotional highs to lows.
Through all the rankings, two questions for the 2nd half of the season have emerged:
1. Can the defense improve to an average level?
2. Can the Irish offense maintain an above 4 yards per carry on the ground?
Barring injuries or unforeseen difficulties, the keys to a BCS bowl lie within these questions. Hopefully the Irish used the bye week to rest, rejuvenate, and refocus on the fundamentals. The Trojans will be ready on Saturday, and hopefully so will the Irish. Check back for game previews later this week.
