Defend the Irish Alamo!

In a kinda weird event, the Irish will face off against Washington State on Saturday evening in San Antonio, TX at the Alama Dome (6:30pm central, NBC). The Irish are favored by 28 points over the Cougars, who are ranked in the "1 hundred and teens" in every major defensive category. While the game lacks much appeal from a matchup standpoint, the appeal and success/failure of the neutral site home game will be interesting to evaluate. Unfortunately the opponent is not either a) local or b) attractive, so I imagine the results of "success" of this game will be a mixed bag.

This game is the first of the former AD Kevin White-inspired "7-4-1" schedule - with the 1 being a neutral, off site "home" game. Under the 7-4-1 scheduling technique, the Irish intend to schedule 1 game per year in a major media market - ideally one with a pro football team (facility) and no college teams (opportunity). Additionally, the Irish would definitely prefer to schedule these games in areas that would aid in recruiting.

San Antonio is a perfect site for recruiting, being located near the major markets of Houston and Dallas in Texas - the state that produced the most division 1-A football players last year. Amazingly, Texas is home to only 3 players currently on scholarship for the Irish. There are more players from Tennessee and North Carolina individually than from Texas. The reason? Mack Brown and the Texas Longhorns, who typically offer top juniors in February each year, demanding their verbal by threatening to revoke the offer if not immediately accepted. In addition to the strong Irish recruiting pipelines to talent rich California and Florida, the Irish must establish some recruiting presence in Texas. Three or four prospects a year would be respectable and expected given the talent level and volume of players in the state. This game is a great way to get some exposure in the Longhorn state, as Notre Dame is allowed to invite as many high school players as possible to the game; a good number of talented juniors (class of 2011) will be on hand Saturday night.

Now, on to the game. I'm not going to spend a lot of time previewing the particulars of the game. Here are a few stats for you about the Cougars:

• Defense rankings (out of 120 Div 1-A nationally) - Rush defense (114th), Pass defense (118th), Total Defense (118th). 
• Offense rankings  -  Rushing offense (116th), Passing Offense (55th), Total Offense (111th)
• Passing offense looks decent right? But when its paired with the worst (120th) pass protection in the nation (5 sacks per game), that means two things: a) the freshman QB Lobberstael can pass a little bit, especially considering his numbers with that offensive line; and b) the Irish blitzing front is going to have some big time opportunities for a few big plays. 
• Washington St's only win this season (1-6) was against SMU at home - which they won 30-27 in OT.
• The Cougars scored 20 or more only twice, with the 30 against SMU and 20 against Hawaii. 

Washington State probably thinks they can beat Notre Dame, and I don't blame anyone for thinking they can win. Bottom line is that they can't. The Irish are far too talented not to score 30 points against Wazzu, while the Cougs will be lucky to get 20 points.  Look for the Irish to use this game to work on and improve the running game that will be key down the stretch. Charlie mentioned he is taking twice the number of offensive lineman on the trip, and I expect him to use them all. The game is never in doubt - for once - but the Cougars add a late score against the 2nd team defense to cover the spread.

Prediction:

Notre Dame  38    Washington St  17

(Vatican Smoke is 5-2 picking winners straight up, but 3-4 against the spread)


Prediction #2  -  See you on the Riverwalk!!

Streak Ended; Questions Remain

The Irish stopped the 6 game losing streak to the Boston College Eagles on Saturday, winning 20-16 in a game that once again went down to the wire. A Brian Smith interception in the final minute sealed the game for the Irish  in what was their 5th straight game decided in the final minute. You can find the full game stats here - and of course there were a few interesting items:

• Rushing Defense  -  The Irish outrushed BC 106 to 70 yards. The Irish held Montel Harris to 1.7 yds per carry, which was a very solid effort by the Irish front 7. The Irish improvement against the run could be construed as having been the result of more passing - which isn't entirely true. BC had 29 carries, which is near the season average # of rushing attempts by Irish opponents this season (35). Likely #5 has something to do with the improvement against the run. 
• Rushing Offense  -  Armando Allen had another solid game, with 98 yards and 4.7 ypc. With BC employing a prevent style defense, the Irish are going to have to make teams pay for this approach by pounding them on the ground for more than just 100 yards. Weis remains undefeated when he wins the rushing yards battle. 
• Passing Offense -  Clausen had an efficient day for 246 yards and no interceptions; the only 2 TDs scored by the Irish were connections between Clausen and Tate. BC played a near prevent defense, forcing the Irish to use short outside routes repeatedly. Credit to Clausen for remaining patient and taking what BC was giving him. A few more short passes to Armando or Rudolph in the middle would have been nice. The only strike against he passing offense, besides the 1st qtr safety, is the inability to score in the Red Zone. More on that later . . .
• Passing Defense - BC's quarterback Dave Shinskie had a career day, passing for 280 yards and a touchdown. His 3 interceptions were the difference in the game - but unfortunately not as much of a difference as the Irish should have reaped from the mistakes. The Irish were opportunistic but still gave up too many plays of 20+ yards (10 plays total). Personnel moves hopefully will help slowdown the opposing pass offenses.
• Special Teams  -   The Eagles won the special teams battle, particularly in the punting department. BC punted 5 times at an average of 42 yards per; the Irish punted 6 times for only 32 yards per punt. BC pinned the Irish back inside the 20 numerous times, while the Irish were unable to return the favor to BC but one time. ND's Nick Tausch made both field goals attempted, continuing his streak to 12 straight field goals made - just 1 short of the Notre Dame record of 13. BC did not attempt any field goals, and kickoff coverage was comparable for both teams. 

A few positive observations and opinions after re-watching the game and looking at the stat sheet:

• Weakside linebacker Manti Te'o led the Irish yet again in tackles with 9 on the game. Both Te'o and Brian Smith are improving - and their play has been one of the major factors stabilizing the Irish run defense. Now about that Irish secondary . . .
• Lineup changes in the secondary were the first major changes in the back 4 all season - and should have come sooner. Former free safety Harrison Smith appears to be moving back to linebacker/safety hybrid, while former Nickelback Sergio Brown will have a go at manning the Free Safety spot. Jamoris Slaughter also got a few reps at free safety, a likely candidate to start next season at FS. Harrison Smith is not a dynamic playmaker in space at Safety - he struggles in coverage and just needs to be in less space near the line of scrimmage. Jamoris Slaughter is a true sophomore that is more athletic and much better in coverage (plays cornerback as well). If he can learn the position fast enough, likely he makes more sense at free safety.
• Yes, the turnover battle was won by the Irish 5-0 - but when your margin of victory (4 pts) is less than a significant turnover advantage, clearly we weren't cashing in on these opportunities. If you were to tell me that the Irish would win the turnover battle by 5 and limit BC's ground attack, I would have bet my life savings on the Irish to win big. Amazingly they did not. I suspect the reason is Red Zone offense, discussed below. 

Yet significant questions remain for the Irish. In particular, there are two issues that appear to be the most glaring roadblocks to a 9 or 10 win season: pass defense and red zone offense.

Pass Defense  -  Clearly the pass defense remains the obvious, major issue for the Irish defense. Its never good when the Irish defense continue to be a launching pad for National QB of the Week mentions for our opponents. I do think the run defense will help the pass defense - ideally putting teams in more clear passing situations, helping prepare our secondary for the pass a bit more. Then again  -  we aren't stopping teams on 3rd and long anyway. The personnel on the field in pass coverage are inconsistent, typically making mental coverage errors more often than physical errors (just getting beat).

What's the answer? Maybe I am in denial, but I still refuse to believe we don't have solid talent in the secondary. The general common factor during the pass coverage breakdowns - in general, not every play - appears to be too much cushion. Whereas many might assume the opposition is hitting deep passes over the top of the secondary (like the days of Clifford Jefferson), most plays have been in front of the safeties. Lets try moving our DBs closer to the receivers and let them cover. Bring the safeties down a little bit more, particularly in the middle of the field.

Red Zone Offense  -  The Irish are letting inferior opponents stay in the game longer when the Irish settle for field goals. Washington and BC are prime examples - games where the Irish racked up meaningless yardage on offense - only to get a field goal or a late penalty to thwart the drive. The Irish have scored 25 of their 29 trips to the Red Zone this season - but only 16 TDs in those 29 entries. Against BC, the Irish scored just 1 TD in their 4 red zone appearances, settling for 2 field goals and a turnover at the goal line; against Washington, the Irish had 2 TDs in 6 entries to the RZ, with 4 FGs. Getting TD's on 50% of the red zone chances - which is what the Irish have for the season - needs to be the goal each week. That goal being achieved against Washington and BC would have made the wins much less difficult.

What's the answer? Run the football. Teams around College and the NFL are employing a "Cover 4" scheme where they essentially drop 6 or 7 guys into a zone coverage. Since the space is less, there are fewer holes in the zone. This defense is tough to pass against - so we must strike at the weakness of this scheme: runs up the middle. Anytime linebackers and safeties are on their heels a bit, expecting the pass, the Irish offensive line needs to dominate and Charlie needs to trust them. Teams are not going to give up easy chances for TDs to Jimmy - so we must make them pay on the ground. Armando is running at 4.9ypc, so lets let him do his thing.

Bottom line: The Irish are on pace for a 9 or 10 win season, but have at least 3 more games they can lose easily (@Pittsburgh, vs UConn, @Stanford) if they dont correct their pass defense and red zone offensive issues. The emphasis on the red zone is so important with a pass defense like we have. Certainly the Irish should handily win the next two games against Washington State (in San Antonio) and Navy - which could put the Irish at 7-2 facing a likely 8-1 Pittsburgh team on the road in a few weeks. Hopefully the Irish can use these two weeks to get some comfortable wins and work on fixing these issues.

Breaking the Other Streak . . .

While the Trojans win streak over the Irish (currently at 8 games) is more publicized, the Boston College streak is more painful; the Eagles have beaten the Irish an astounding and embarrassing 6 times in a row. Long considered the inferior Catholic school in all ways, Boston College has consistently played extremely well against the Irish, while the Irish arrive flat and uninspired. This matchup could be the perfect case of "a big game for them but not as much us"; nonetheless, the Irish have a Michigan St like streak that needs to be ended tomorrow at 2:30pm central time in Notre Dame Stadium (weather is highs in the mid 40s, very cloud, 40% chance of rain).

Boston College is a weird team this year. Well played games at home (28-21 over Florida St, 53-20 over NC State, 27-24 over Wake Forrest) with some terrible results on the road (loss 14-48 @ VTech and loss 7-25 @ Clemson) make the picture a bit murky. Certainly expect the Eagles to play well in Notre Dame Stadium, as they are quite comfortable there, winning 4 of their last 5 games in South Bend. Clearly the Boston College players and media treat this game almost like a bowl game - putting the Irish in a tough game every year.

BC is a strong rushing team, with a streaky QB. Last week, the Eagles rushed for 260 yards - 150 of which were via the "Wildcat" formation. The Irish are much improved against the run, holding the vaunted Trojans rushing offense to just 120 yards. Lots of that ground improvement has been at the expense of the passing defense. The Irish have demoted Free Safety Harrison Smith (#22 - Knoxville, TN) and have shaken things  up in the secondary. The unit is talented, and eventually just has to play better. Things in the back 4 can't get much worse, and I don't expect this BC passing attack to expedite that.

This game feels like another trap game for the Irish. Notre Dame consistently plays down to BC and Michigan St, largely because they are not one of the 2 or 3 marquee opponents on the schedule. The week after USC will certainly be a less intense and hyped atmosphere - a situation that will reveal the true character of this team.

To me, the true "character" of this team is fighting to the end - for which no lead is safe, and no deficit is either; unfortunately for my heart rate, I see another thriller coming - game decided late in the 4th quarter:

Notre Dame    42     Boston College  35

(Vatican Smoke is 4-2 predicting winners, 2-4 against the spread)

One Eagle we can all root for . . .

Instead of breaking down the USC game stats or previewing the Boston College game this week - I thought this article about Coach Weis and his relationship with BC linebacker Mark Herzlich was worth mentioning. Mark was ACC defensive player of the year last year - yet is undergoing treatment for cancer. Charlie sought out Mark, and the two have a relationship that has been important to Mark during his season sitting out, fighting the crippling disease. Definitely worth the read.

Charlie Weis off the football field was initially viewed as an arrogant, pompous wise-ass. Losing the past few years has indirectly softened the image of Coach Weis - who was humbled and forced to seriously change his public perception in order to keep his job. Weis has always loved his family, Notre Dame, and his friends - and generally been a very good person. Articles like this do not surprise me one bit, and truly show a genuine Charlie Weis. Yet articles like this, until recently, have been the exception and not the norm - as Notre Dame haters preferred the obnoxious and arrogant Weis. Good to see articles like this one about Coach Weis - who has my respect as being a good father, Notre Dame alum, and man.

All of this aside, Notre Dame did not hire Weis to be only a good person. Nor did Notre Dame hire Charlie just to keep players out of trouble (which he has), or to fully focus on academics in the football program (3.0 team average every semester). Notre Dame demands excellence both on and off the field - and 2 outta 3, whichever one is missing, won't cut it. Charlie has shown brilliance off the field, on the whole - and that deserves credit. Yet the only short and unsustained flashes of success on the field could eventually catch up to Weis. While the USC loss in Charlie's 5th season was a potential harbinger of his demise, the story of the USC loss is not yet finished (as I wrote in my previous post). The final 6 games will tell whether Charlie will be back next year. Here's rooting for you Charlie.

The Aftermath

For a program that traditionally does not settle for moral victories, Saturday's end result was another almost win for the trophy case. The Irish fell to the Trojans for the 8th time in a row, losing 34-27, despite having 3 chances from the 4 yard line as time expired. Close but no cigar - the story of ND football, post Lou Holtz. 


Before one can sort through the positives and negatives of the game, know this: Saturday was a major setback for Notre Dame. There are no moral victories or "we're improving" comments that should make any Irish fan feel better. Losing a winnable game against a top ranked arch rival - albeit a game that the Irish did not deserve to win - is never acceptable and is major strike against Charlie Weis. After Saturday, I believe its going to be very difficult for Charlie to ever get us where we need to be. There is a chance he could - with more time than likely the Dome will offer. I hope Charlie succeeds - but I fear his chances of creating a consistent top 10 program are slim considering the hot seat that is coaching at Notre Dame. 


Lets take a quick look at the preseason prediction of Vatican Smoke thru 6 games (full season prediction here):


Prediction:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - W
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - L
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L

Actual:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - L
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - W
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L

While Weis may not be the guy long term for this program, after 6 games, "We are who [Vatican Smoke] thought [we] were". The Irish are a solid, likely top 20 football team that doesn't have the defense to compete with the elite teams yet. 4-2 is the record many Irish fans expected - and the Irish goal of a BCS game is still in play, with a 6-0 finish and some good luck. The margin for error in reaching the BCS is razor thin now, if even possible. Tough losses to Michigan and USC - the most hated rivals on the schedule - certainly sting. But try to look at the big picture of where you expected us to be in the preseason. The Irish are a team that can lose to just about anyone in the country - but likely would have a chance to win against anyone in the country also, except for Alabama (yes I think we could possibly play with Florida or Texas, particularly after this weekend.) 

While I think Saturday laid a potentially heavy judgement on Charlie Weis, I don't think the story of the USC loss is finished yet. Was Saturday a good team losing a close one? Or will it be remembered as the day Charlie Weis's career at Notre Dame was finished? After the loss, his job security depends even more on the final 6 games. In the final 6 games, starting this Saturday at home against Boston College, the Irish should go 5-1 - and better make a serious run at 6-0. 4-2 or worse likely leaves Weis without a job. How the Irish respond in these final 6 games will determine how this loss to USC was remembered.