3-1

The Irish passed a road test this past weekend at Purdue, winning on a very late TD toss by Clausen to sophomore tight end Kyle Rudolph with 24 seconds remaining. On a 4th and goal play nonetheless. The TD sealed the victory at 24-21, in a game that previous Irish teams likely would have lost.

While many are discouraged that the Irish needed a late score to put away Purdue, there are lots of positive trends and successes that came out of this game. Personally, I feel better after this game than after the Michigan State game. It feels like we won the game - not relying on the opponent to lose it.

The positives:

Run Defense - Irish limited the Boilers and the #2 overall rusher in the country (Bolden) to 74 yards rushing. Interestingly enough, the Boilers rushed for 170 yards vs Oregon at Autzen Stadium. Success.

Less Blitzing & More Cover 2 - It has been estimated that the Irish blitzed 80% of passing situations in the first 3 games. The Irish blitzed about 55% vs Purdue (per Tim Prister - Irish Illustrated), employing much more cover 2 zone. The zone coverage and blitz anticipation preceding no blitz clearly helped the Irish defense. Purdue finished with 289 yards passing (same amount as vs Oregon), which is not great at all - but clearly better than Michigan State.

Rushing Offense - The Irish rushed for 167 yards, winning the rushing battle, and putting Charlie Weis at 18-0 when he wins the rushing battle (If that's not a telling stat, I don't know what is). Unfortunately the 2nd half run game slowed down a bit, or rather failed to result in 2nd half points. The Irish finished at 3.9 ypc for the game, a tick below ideal of about 4.5 ypc or more.

Offensive Wrinkles - Missing 3 of their best offensive players in Armando Allen, Michael Floyd, and Clausen (1/2 the game), many knew this game would be difficult for the Irish offense. The 2nd and 3rd quarters (until the 4th and 10 call) were easily the most brilliant stretch of offensive playcalling I have ever seen from Weis. Employing a genius dose of the Wildcat, 4 running backs (Gray, Hughes, Riddick, & even WR Golden Tate), and numerous new running plays from varying formations, the Irish were able to control the 2nd and 3rd quarters with minimal pass attempts by rookie QB Dayne Crist. The strategy looked to be the perfect way to grind out a win on the road with injured stars. Unfortunately the momentum changed and the Irish were not able to continue this approach - but for awhile, the Irish rushing attack was unstoppable. Don't think Weis will not build off these successes and look to include more of this in his gameplans going forward.

Less Penalties - The Irish were penalized less than their opponent for the first time in 3 weeks, earning 6 penalties costing 43 yards (Purdue had 13 for 103 yards). A few procedural illegal formation penalties negated big plays, and one TD to Golden Tate in particular was called back because Duval Kamara (WR) was not on the line of scrimmage. Amazingly - a Big East officiating crew handled the game, not a Big 10 crew. SURPRISE SURPRISE.

Field Goals - Freshman Nick Tausch continues his solid placekicking, nailing a 42 yarder in the 1st quarter. He is now 5/6 on the season including 3/4 on the road.

Clutch Finish on Offense - 3 minutes to go, down by 4. Clausen made numerous big time throws. Best throw of the game was a perfectly thrown pass to Robby Parris on 3rd and 14 from about midfield. The rifle (and I mean rifle) pass to win the game to Rudolph on 4th and goal was an NFL caliber throw - both via the accuracy and power. Clausen and the offense expected to score on that final drive - and it showed.

Certainly there were negatives:

Blown Coverage on Purdue's 4th quarter TD to take the lead
Poor punting most of the game
Still too many offensive line/procedural penalties

Poor Coaching Decision by Weis - Going for a 4th and 10 late in the 3rd quarter on the Purdue 34 yard line. After the ensuing timeout preceding the play, the Irish stuck with the pass play for the 10 yards. Dayne Crist was sacked for a 7 yard loss, as Ross-Ade Stadium erupted, clearing giving Purdue momentum they didn't have. Purdue followed on the first play on offense with a game changing 28 yard gain. If Weis punts the ball, less momentum if any is transferred, and the Boilers are forced to go an additional 20 to 40 yards. 4th and 5 or 6 - maybe - but not 4th and 10 when your defense was clearly winning the battles and you have a limited offense with a rookie QB.

Despite the past 3 games being closer than they should have been, you can't deny the following: the Irish are on pace to meet the Trojans with a 4-1 record in what will be THE defining game of the Weis era. Also, the Irish have found a way to win 2 games the past 2 weeks that they wouldn't have won in previous years. This Irish team has now overcome three 4th quarter deficits in each of the last 3 weeks, going 2-1 in those games. Clausen and the offense clearly have shown they can score when the game is on the line - which will certainly come in handy later in the year. Later in the season, the Irish are going to greatly benefit from these close victories and late offensive successes. You watch.

This week - Irish vs Washington. Irish are 13 point favorites over the improving Huskies. Jimmy Clausen and Armando Allen will play and practice today, and should be at or very near 100%. I expect a high scoring game that the Irish better show up for. The Huskies will be a tough opponent, coming off a loss. Based on how the season has gone thus far, a close down to the wire finish would not be surprising - in fact that seems more likely than a blowout.

Purdue Game Preview: "It's Purdue Football!!"

The Irish head down to West Lafayette, IN on Saturday to play Purdue in a nationally televised game on ESPN (7pm central). Purdue can score, but certainly will defer to the Irish in team talent. Apparently the full fledged a$$holes think they have an equalizer - the dreaded crowd "black out" and "glow in the dark" t-shirts made especially for this game. Purdue has also released pictures of the special game ball to be used - quite simply, amazing! Clearly Purdue fans have responded, with as nearly 8000 tickets remain available. And remember - its Purdue football!! 

All joking aside, the first road night game on national television of the season will be a test for the Irish. Purdue is still an offense-first program as it was under Joe Tiller, who was replaced by 1st year coach Danny Hope this season. The offense is a bit more focused on the run than Tiller's "basketball on grass", which could give the Boilers a decent shot. Some key questions:

When Purdue has the ball . . . 

• Can the Irish stop Ralph Bolden at running back? The sophomore running back is the #2 RB in the country in yardage, rushing for an a very strong 6.8 ypc and 140 ypg. The 5' 9" stack is very quick and his stature seems to be an advantage in getting through the gaps unnoticed. Bolden has achieved these numbers against Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Oregon - 3 decent teams. Expect the Irish to perform well against the run - continuing the trend that started in the 2nd half of the Michigan St game. The Irish limited Michigan St to 105 yards rushing on 25 carries in the game, but only 26 yards in the 2nd half on the ground.  
• Can the Irish defense pressure and cover? Expect the Irish to put a focus on stopping the ground game and Bolden, forcing first year QB Joey Elliot and the average Purdue passing attack to beat the Irish thru the air. Can we bring pressure, yet still cover on the plays when Elliot is ready for our Tenuta-blitz? As I mentioned in my previous post, the Irish pressure and coverage schemes thru 3 games seem a bit "out of sync". Teams are countering the Irish blitz with quick passing using slants and middle of the field short routes. We must put our corners and linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage and the receivers. This makes us more susceptible to the deep pass  -  but I say let our talented corners cover. Lots more difficult to cover short slants than deep go routes. 
• Will there be any defensive lineup changes?  Clearly the Irish defense is struggling, but the company line this week has been "it's not the scheme - it's just players missing a few plays". Continued rotation of players on the defensive line is expected (9 lineman played against MSU last week). If any lineup changes are made, expect Manti Te'o to get more snaps in place of Toryan Smith, with Te'o lining up at weak side backer while Brian Smith moves from weak to middle. With Purdue's rushing attack, I think Te'o won't get significantly more snaps than previous weeks. 

When Notre Dame has the ball . . .

• Will injuries be a factor? Jimmy Clausen and Armando Allen have been very limited in practice this week. Yet it appears Clausen will play for sure, and Allen will be a game time decision. Michael Floyd's effect will be felt (he's out for the year), but I think a full speed Clausen, Allen, Rudolph, and Tate can compensate and keep the ball moving. Good news is that Clausen played the entire second half last week w/o Floyd and with the turf toe injury, and the offense didn't miss a beat. If Clausen doesn't play, I am intrigued at what Dayne Crist can do. Weis has been itching to play the 6'4" true Sophomore, obviously for a reason. Allen will almost certainly have less carries even if he plays, so look for running backs Jonas Gray and Freshman Theo Riddick to step up.
• Run or pass?  The Irish have looked their best in 5 WR formations this year - thru 3 games, they have basically been unstoppable in the formation. Do the Irish continue this, or try to pound it out against Purdue on the ground? As good as our passing game is, expect the Irish to try to run it first. Last year, the mediocre Irish rushing attack amassed 200 yards on the ground against Purdue, winning 38-21. Would love to see 4 RBs play, and something like 250 yards team rushing. Would be boring, but that's how good teams win when they are on the road or hampered by injury. 
• Who will win the "replace Michael Floyd" competition at WR? Michael Floyd is irreplaceable. Yet someone is going to have to produce in his spot. This game looks to be an open competition between Duval Kamara, Robby Parris, and Shaq Evans. Duval Kamara is the experienced Junior that is big and has shown spurts of being a very good WR. He is easily the best blocking WR the Irish have, which cannot be underestimated in screen and swing pass heavy Weis offense. Expect runs, swing passes, and screen passes to Kamara's side of the formation. Would love to see the explosive freshman Shaq Evans step up - something many Notre Dame fans have been very anxious to see all year. If Evans doesn't step up soon, I fear he will be unable to secure the confidence of the coaching staff until next season. 

If Notre Dame brings their A game, this is a 20 point easy victory - bring your B game, and this one is winnable but could get interesting. The Irish will likely have a gameplan centered upon running the ball, which is quickly becoming a strength. Clausen will protected and ready to play  -  expect lots of screen, swing, and then a few deep passes whenever Golden Tate is left in 1 on 1 coverage.  

Bottom line: Purdue's defense quite simply will not stop the Irish unless the Irish stop themselves. The Irish defense finally scores a touchdown on a long interception return by Safety (and Tennessean) Harrison Smith. The Irish offense cruises with an impressive, balanced attack. 

Prediction:

IRISH   40     PURDUE    23

(for the season, VS is 2-1 on predictions, 0-3 against the spread)

Defense thats just offensive

Clearly the Irish defense is struggling. The Irish defense ranks 94th overall in the country - 91st against the pass, and 74th against the run. Turrrrable, turrrrable, turrrrable. But why? Many point to scheme, the defensive line, coaching, or just lack of talent as the causes of the performance. Likely its a combination of issues. Here are a few to ponder:

Scheme  -  Many people think the Irish are blitzing ourselves out of plays. That's partially true. The talent of the blitzers is one thing - but one issue is the lack of surprise with the blitzing. The opposition knows the Irish will blitz roughly 75% of the time, and their passing offenses thus far have been perfectly designed around 3 step drops by the QB, using slants, drags, and short hitch routes. These short routes are very difficult for cornerbacks to defend - particularly with as much cushion (sometimes 10 yards) as Irish CBs are giving to opposing WRs. The blitz and cornerback cushion limit big plays at the cost of the shorter routes. The coverage just doesn't match the short routes teams are using to counter the expected Irish blitz. Hopefully the coaches will get the coverage and blitzing more "in sync". Just once I would love to see all our linebackers on the line of scrimmage - clearly blitzing - only to drop back into zone coverage looking for a slant route. Young QBs are so worried about getting rid of the ball against the Irish, maybe we pick one off.  

Tackling  -  Great post here by the guys at Blue Gray Sky. Defensive Tackle Ian Williams, and Middle linebacker Toryan Smith have typically been on the ground or just out of position on most plays. Gaping holes in the middle = easy rushing yards. You can scheme and coach all you want, but when players over pursue (Toryan) or lose their balance (Ian), they must be held accountable. Maybe the players should be more well coached - but there comes a point where players must execute by winning the 1 on 1 battles. 

Talent  -  We will give out midseason grades to compare with the preseason positional previews here at Vatican Smoke. So far, the defensive line has majorly disappointed, the linebackers have slightly disappointed, and the cornerbacks have been disappointing. I have a feeling talent is not the issue in the secondary - but rather the lack of pressure combined with our soft coverage not quite ready for the shorter routes teams are using. But clearly we are undermanned on the defensive line. The linebackers are young and talented enough to play much better. The recruiting misses of 2005 thru 2007 on the defensive line are coming home to roost just like the offensive line misses in 2003-2005 came to fruition in 2007. 

1st Down  -  Tenuta emphasizes "winning on 1st down" as much as all defensive coaches do. I'd say that first down is even more important in Tenuta's scheme, because blitzing works much more effectively in 2nd and 3rd and long than shorts. The Irish are a putrid 95th in the country in first down defense. The Irish defensive improvement, if its happens, will highly correlate with 1st down performance. Fixing those gaping holes in the middle will go a long way in this department. 

Red Zone  -  Amazingly, the Irish defense ranks 5th in the country in red zone defense. A fumble by Nevada, an interception by MSU last weekend, and a missed FG by Michigan all have aided this stat. I have a feeling that this statistic is an anomaly - but maybe not. Red Zone Defense is critical, clearly, and the Irish have performed darn well so far. Lets see if this ranking holds up after a few more games. 

A great play call that should have ended the MSU game 2 plays earlier  -  You can read my post on Irish message board ND nation by clicking here - including video and more detail. I describe a play that could have won the game, and was clearly a solid playcall by the defensive coaches. The play I am describing is a 3rd down and 6 on Michigan St's final drive, at the Irish 26 yard line. Ray Herring, playing nickelback (cornerback on the slot receiver, essentially), defends/tips pass up in the air, only to be caught anyway by the Michigan St WR near the ND sideline, falling out of bounds, for the first down. Herring faked the blitz, then dropped back into apparent man to man coverage on the slot receiver. In fact he was in zone coverage at the first down marker/flat area - and he broke at the perfect time on the outside 10 yard hitch route route run by the WR, who appeared to be wide open.  Bottom line - Herring did not execute via an easy pass deflection out of bounds or interception. The tip out of bounds forces a game tying 42 yard field goal, giving the Irish the ball back with 1:10 in a tie game, at worst. An interception ends the game. Two plays later the Spartans miss a wide open receiver in the end zone that would never have happened. Blame some playcalls by the defensive staff, but players must make plays. 

The Purdue game preview should be up on Friday. Purdue should be excited and ready to play  -  its a home night game, nationally televised on ESPN, and they have planned a "black out" with glow in the dark Purdue tshirts. What a bunch of full fledged a$$holes. The Irish offense should have little problem moving the ball and scoring. However, the offensive is banged up with Armando Allen and Jimmy Clausen nursing some injuries this week - and it would certainly be nice if the defense made some plays, avoiding another shootout. Winning on the road in a hostile environment is never easy - and this will be a decent test for the Irish before tougher road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford later in the season. Again, I am anxious to see how the Irish respond. 

2-1

The Irish finally defeated Sparty on Saturday, winning 33-30 in a down to the wire finish. Charlie Weis has now broken two streaks that the previous two ND coaches Davie & Willingham could not - beating Michigan State in Notre Dame Stadium, and winning a bowl game.

Saturday was at the same time a huge relief and a huge concern. The defense clearly is struggling to stop the pass and the run, giving up 459 yards of total offense and 30 points to an average offensive team in Michigan State. And certainly the Spartans failed to capitalize on some defensive miscues (one at the end of the game in particular). That said, the Irish deserve to be 2-1 and are still technically in play for a solid season. Certainly it's a positive to see the Irish take advantage of the late Spartan miscue, which incidentally came on the first real QB pressure of the day.

Lots of things have to happen for the Irish to finish with that 10-2 record and a BCS berth. Two key questions that must be answered in order to reach that goal, at this stage of the season:

• Without Floyd, can the offense keep scoring 34 points per game? With Floyd out, defenses are going to double team Golden Tate. Kyle Rudolph and the other wide receivers - time to step up. Expect Weis to counter with a very heavy dose of Rudolph, who's size and hands create a mismatch with nearly every linebacker and safety in the country. Whether its Rudolph or Shaq Evans or other wideouts - Charlie is going to have to change the playbook and replace Floyd's production.
• Can the Irish win on the road? During 2007 and 2008, the Irish have gone 4-7 on the road, with 2 road wins in each season. 2007 featured road wins against UCLA and Stanford, while 2008 road wins were Navy (in Baltimore) and Washington. A pattern has developed of playing poorly on the road against decent teams. A convincing road victory in front of a national primetime audience this Saturday night would be good preparation for the more difficult road games coming up in November against Pittsburgh and Stanford.

I know what you're thinking: why no key question about our defense? The Irish defense has been terrible, no doubt. But the unit should improve after getting exposed early in the season. Expect a bend but not break defense than will start to limit most opponents to scores in the 20s while the offense keeps scoring near the 30s.

We'll learn a little bit about the Irish on Saturday night when we face an overmatched Purdue team on the road. Winning a night game on the road in the first game without our best WR won't be easy (that's why Vegas has the line currently as Irish favored by only 8.5 points). Purdue's not to be mistaken for a good team, however - but a decisive victory with a solid offensive performance would be a great start to answering both of these questions.

Michigan St. Preview: Flags of our Rivals

The Irish attempt to pull themselves off the mat this Saturday at 230pm central time against Michigan St. in Notre Dame Stadium (NBC). Michigan St has won 6 straight in Notre Dame Stadium, dating back to the Clinton administration (1993). Michigan St planted their flag on Notre Dame's turf back in 2005, Charlie's first season, after a 44-41 OT victory (shown above).

The Irish are 10.5 pt favorites, but both 1-1 squads are in dire need of a win to get back on track. That said, the Irish have way more to lose this game than the Spartans. Here are some things to watch for:

When Michigan St has the ball . . . 

• Can they run the ball like the Michigan St teams of old? Since the Irish are giving up 5.0YPC this season, its assumed that Michigan St will have some success on the ground. Caulton Ray and Larry Caper are inexperienced Spartan RBs, but still averaging 4YPC together thru 2 games. Despite the decent YPC, MSU is only gaining 138 yards per game - much lower than prior years. And those stats were against Montana St. and Central Michigan. The MSU running game is a very physical and straight ahead brand - unlike the spread and misdirection the Irish faced in the first two weeks. Despite their slow start running the ball, I expect MSU to have some success running against the Irish. 
• Will Michigan St have continued success passing the ball? Averaging 267 passing yards per game is very high for an MSU squad. Using two very inexperienced QBs (Nichol and Cousins), the Spartans have had a much more aerial attack than in years past. The Irish strength on defense is the pass defense, which prompts the question - will the Spartans attack through the air - their strength thus far - or attack the Irish weakness of run defense? I expect Michigan St to try to win the game thru the air, in a little bit of game theory - the Spartans will expect the Irish to over focus on run defense, while underestimating the Spartan passing attack. Forcing some turnovers from these inexperienced QBs (Cousins will be making his first ever road start) will be a key to the game for the Irish.
• Can the Irish rush the passer?  The Michigan St pass protection has been stellar (not perfect like the Irish protection has been, however), allowing only a half a sack thru 2 games. If Michigan St is going to pass the ball against a Jon Tenuta defense, pressure will have to be handled by the Spartan offensive line. Any QB with time can make passes, while any QB on his back can't. Pressure will be a major factor in this game for both defenses. Expect even more pressure by Tenuta if the Irish are having success against the run - and especially since Cousins is not fleet of foot like Forcier or Kaepernick. 

When the Irish have the ball . . .

• Can the Irish run the ball enough to balance the Spartan defense?  Notre Dame is running the ball better than at any point of the Charlie Weis era. But Michigan State's front 7 defenders are better than Michigan and Nevada's - significantly so in my opinion. Michigan State's super middle linebacker Greg Jones is a mean mo-fo, average 14(!) tackles per game. He will be involved in the tackle somehow on every single running play, you can count on it. Likely those yards after contact that Armando Allen has been getting are going to be limited against the Spartans. A 150 yard rushing game for the Irish would be a fantastic accomplishment, especially considering the rush game stat line from the game against the Spartans last year: 16 yards rushing, on 22 attempts. YIKES
• Can the Irish exploit the Spartan secondary?  Central Michigan passed with success on the Spartans, hurting the confidence of the MSU defensive backs according to their very own defensive backs coach. As seen the first two games, defending the Irish passing attack is not for the meek. Man on man without deep zone coverage or pressure, the Irish passing attack will succeed. D'Antonio knows this, and will counter appropriately with a package of selective and conservative blitzes, as well as plenty of 2 deep safety coverage.  I get a feeling D'Antonio is expecting Clausen to feel the weight of the world and get impatient, forcing a few deep throws into coverage. Whether Jimmy will be able to take the short check downs given to him will be a major factor in the game. 
• Will Spartan defenders be able to pressure Clausen? D'Antonio knows that Clausen and our wideouts will pick his secondary apart if given time, especially against straight up man for man coverage. As stated above, I think we will see a lot of conservative and deep pass coverage, to avoid the big play by the Irish. While this is a decent idea, there is just no way the Spartans can do that all day without Clausen adjusting. Expect a good number of 3rd down and otherwise very conservative blitzes enough to keep the Irish offensive line on its toes. Michigan State's defensive line will be a handful, so I expect a tired offensive line missing a linebacker or two and allowing a sack for the first time all season. What will the Irish counter this pressure with? The Charlie Weis special, screen passes. Lets just hope Charlie makes good guesses as to when to throw the screen and run max protect plays. Vatican Smoke recommends a slightly different approach - 5 wide, no huddle. Hit TE Rudolph all day. If you're reading this Charlie, you're welcome for the free advice. 

Since Lou Holtz has left, Michigan State has had our number. No matter how easy it was supposed to be against the Spartans, Michigan State always bring tough offensive and defensive lines that bust their a$$ and make the Irish work for every single yard. This game will not be for the timid, undisciplined, or immature. Where last year's team may have wilted, I expect the more experienced Irish squad to grind early, but win convincingly, largely due to a lack of offense and some turnovers on the Spartans. If the Irish give up a sack or two, and only rush for 100 yards, do not consider this a step back - but rather a step forward. Michigan State is a quality team that will be in the conversation for the Big 10 elite, despite last week's setback (first upset of the D'Antonio era). 

Game Prediction:

Notre Dame  31   Michigan St  17

(season record straight up 1-1, against the spread, 0-2)

Have a great weekend Irish fans  -  GO IRISH!!