Boston College Game Preview

IRISH @ Boston College - ESPN, 7pm CENTRAL time, Saturday night primetime

The 5-3 Irish and 5-3 Eagles face off in Boston in another big game for both team's bowl hopes. Games like this determine the difference between the Meineke Car Care Bowl and the Gator Bowl. ESPN HD will be televising, and I imagine the crew of Mike Patrick/Todd Blacklidge will be announcing the game, although I could not confirm. Now for what to watch for . . .

When Boston College has the ball . . . you might think this team is North Carolina. Their offense is very similar to the Tar Heels, in that the QB (Chris Crane) has more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (8), and their rushing offense is solid but not great. BC has the 82nd ranked offense in the country based on yards; 91st in passing yards, 59th in rushing yards (check out the cool NCAA statistics page that ranks every team in every category). The Eagles average 4.2 yards per carry for the season on the ground, but a very pedestrian 5.5 yards per pass attempt. While the offense as a whole looks like North Carolina, I don't believe BC has any gamebreakers on the offensive side of the ball like North Carolina did in Brandon Tate and Hakeem Nicks. The Irish defense ranks 50th against the run, 64th against the pass, and 38th in scoring defense. Bottom line - I do not expect BC to be able to get more than 24 points against the Irish, period. NC got only 21 points against the Irish defense, and I do not think BC can do any better. Look for the Irish to pressure Crane into some bad throws (which is always Tenuta's plan!).

When Notre Dame has the ball . . . you might see the same offense as in the North Carolina game - 5 wide, no running back, quick passes. Boston College has a very solid defensive line and linebacker corps, but is not as strong in the secondary. However, BC is still a top 18 ranked defense against the run and the pass, so its not like they are weak. This defense is not as opportunistic as the UNC defense is (UNC is ranked 6th in the nation in turnovers), and I think that will be the major difference between ND's offensive performance against UNC and the one to be displayed Saturday night at Chestnut Hill. Running the ball on Boston College, in my opinion, will only happen once we spread them out to defend the pass. I fully expect (and hope) the Irish come out 5 wide and let Jimmy get into a passing groove early. Then run some draws with Armando, as well as a healthy dose of swing passes. If the Irish try to run the ball early, I will be surprised and disappointed (unless it works!).

Prediction time. Check out my Pitt preview post grading below - even though I was way wrong on the score, my stat predictions were downright scary.

• Prediction 1 - Jimmy will pass for 245 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. A gritty performance in which the Irish get great field position and have some short fields.


• Prediction 2 - Chris Crane will account for 3 turnovers - either fumbles or INTs. One big defensive play in the 2nd half in favor of the Irish will be the difference.


• Prediction 3 - Golden Tate - house call. I am going to keep predicting this until it happens, and I started predicting this last week. I think his confidence is there, and its just going to take that perfect kick or punt that is bound to come soon. I say it happens early in the game tomorrow night.


• Prediction 4 - The Irish grind out a difficult but gutsy 115 yards rushing. BC doesn't give up much run yardage, so this will have been hard earned.

I think this game will go a long way towards determining how Irish fans will remember this season. A win over BC, and this season will be remembered as progress and growing, with a bright future. A loss to BC confuses Irish fans - and this confusion officially opens the debate on the question all Irish fans fear - Is Charlie the right coach? I guess we could lose to BC and then win out, including a bowl game - certainly that finish with conjure feelings that I liken with a victory over BC. But in reality, if the Irish lose to BC, they are not ready to be anything but 6-6 or 7-5.

Score prediction time. I think this game is going to be a good one, but one that is more about BC stumbles and Notre Dame capitalizing on easy chances than anything else.

IRISH 31 BC 24

(Record in games straight up picking the winner is 6-2. Record against the point spread is 5-3. I predicted wrongly that the Irish would beat North Carolina and Pitt, and I failed to pick the spread winner in the Mich St game, the Stanford game, and the Pitt game.)