Cardinals Tidbits

The Cardinals sit at 38-27, second place (2.5 games back) in the NL Central to the Cubs, who sit at 40-24, tops in the MLB. The Cardinals record also puts them tied for the 6th best record in all of baseball. Not a bad start at all. Some Cardinals tidbits for ya:

• The Cardinals had some transactional movement in the past week, calling up young Joe Mather (pictured) from Memphis (AAA), and sending down slugger Chris Duncan, a fixture for the Cardinals since late 2006. Mather had been batting over .300 with some power at Memphis, and seems to be ready at 25 years of age. Duncan initially provided some much needed pop to the lineup starting in late 2006, hitting 22 and 21 HRs in '06 and '07. However, his inability to be effective against lefties, combined with his sluggish outfield play and very long slump to start 2008, made this move inevitable. Last week, in a dramatic loss to the Nationals, Mather hit his first career home run, breaking up a tie in the 10th inning. Unfortunately his was a solo blast, and we gave up a 2 run shot to end the game. Speaking of that game, the Cards also pitched new callup Mark Worrell (also from Memphis) for 2 innings. Not only did he pitch two scoreless, but in his first big league at bat, he hit a 3-run HR. Great start for the two Redbirds I watched in person two weeks ago.



• Todd Wellemeyer continues to impress, winning National League Pitcher of the Month for May. As you can see in the article, homeboy was 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA in May - not bad. Nicknamed "the Colonel", Todd has been the most consistent pitcher of late. It will take a long season of consistent production from pitchers like Todd for the Cardinals to make any noise in the playoffs.



• Injury bug has officially struck. Just as soon as Wellemeyer wins the player of the month award, he has a sore elbow and misses a start. Pujols has a calf injury that has sidelined him a bit, while Ankiel has missed some time with a sore knee. To top it all off, our #1 starter Adam Wainwright was put on the DL this week with a sprained finger. Hopefully Wellemeyer can come back this week and pitch, although that's up in the air. The guys over at Viva le Birdos (Cardinals blog) think that Wellemeyer's just being in his second year as a starter is a major part of his injury. They seem to question whether he can keep logging starter innings without the experience of doing it healthy for a full season.



• MLB Draft was last week - Cardinals selected Arizona St 3B Brett Wallace, a pure power hitter. Overall the Cardinals used 51 draft picks (!) to take 27 pitchers and 24 position players. Good recap of it here. Many think the draft is not as big a deal, but they are wrong. Teams like the Devil Rays are a perfect example. At the minimum, you need young talent to make trades in baseball. But also you need homegrown talent brought up for cheap $$ through your farm system. Remember, a player's first 6 years in professional baseball, they are essentially at the mercy of the team. If those guys develop in 2 or 3 years, then you have some cheap talent on the big league club for a 3 years or so. I'm hoping we can get some young infielders especially, as well as more power bats, to develop through our farm system. Our top pick satisfied both, so hopefully we'll see Wallace in a few short years.

These next two weeks will be interesting for the Cardinals, and will largely reveal if they are in fact "for real". Many skeptics out there doubt the Cardinals due to the lack of power in their bats, as well as starting pitching that many think has over performed. The Cards are at Cincinnati for 3, then back home to face the 1st place Phillies and cross state rival the Royals. Hopefully the Cardinals can keep their pace of winning at least 2 games in their last 7 series.

Looking way way ahead, the Cardinals have two series with the Cubs in the first week and a half of September. I imagine that will be when the division winner is finally settled. At least I hope we can hang with the Cubs until then. Likely we will, largely because the Cubs just cant keep winning at this pace, especially with a tough road and inter league schedule coming up.

Passing Optimism

In yesterday's post about Jeff Fisher's offenses during his Titans tenure, I concluded that Jeff Fisher teams do not need to be anything but average in the passing game to succeed. After finishing 27th in the league in passing offense, many expected the Titans to make a big splash and sign a free agent or draft a WR with a high pick in the draft. The Titans did neither, but definitely have made some changes that will affect the passing game.

1. Mike Heimerdinger - new offensive coordinator. After being the offensive coordinator for the Titans from 2000-2004, Mike left to take the same role with the New York Jets in 2005, joining a sinking ship in Herman Edwards last season. For 2006-2007, he was offensive coordinator in Denver with his college roommate Mike Shanahan. When the Titans fired Norm Chow after last season, Heimerdinger was the only candidate they discussed, hiring him within 3 days of Chow's departure. During his first stint as Titans O'Coordinator, the Titans offense never finished below 15th in the league in total points. During this time, Steve McNair went from good to great, eventually claiming MVP of the NFL in 2003. The Titans made the playoffs 3 of the 5 years he was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee. Look for Heimerdinger to use Vince Young's legs more, to use more shotgun sets (all VY did at Texas was shotgun),



2. Wide Receiver personnel moves. Yes, there were a few. The Titans signed former Titan Justin McCareins, who played the last 4 seasons for the New York Jets. His best year with the Titans was 2003, when he snagged 47 receptions for 800 yards and 7 TDs in McNair's MVP year. He had a similar year in 2004 with the Jets, but then diminished each of the next 3 seasons before being cut. The Titans signed him to a 1 year deal, and are hoping his experience, particularly as a slot WR, will help VY and the other WRs improve. Additionally, the Titans re-signed their leading wideout from 2007, Justin Gage (pictured). The 6 foot 4 Gage had a big year with 55 catches in 2007, very impressive considering the Titans passing offense was 27th in the league. Gage is a tall guy with very good hands and route running skills, certainly entering his prime. If McCareins can be a steadying go to guy in the slot, allowing Gage to go deep a bit more, the Titans will definitely be tougher to contend with from the WR spot. Here is how the WR depth chart looks right now, best guess:
   












Definitely some optimism right now in Titans mini-camps, as well as on former top 10 pick Mike Williams from USC. Mike Williams has been criticized for a lack of work ethic, as well as being overweight. Supposedly he is "recommitted" and has lost weight - we'll see (he went to USC). If Williams can contribute while the other young WRs keep maturing, we could definitely see a big jump in production even though our WR core is unchanged. Granted, some websites only think the Titans have 1 WR in the top 50 in the NFL (Roydell Williams at #47).









3. Expanded backfield - The Titans now have a stable of Running Backs, each with different skill sets. On first glance, we have the "track stars", rookie Chris Johnson (in 2008 combine ran a 4.24 40 yard dash) and 2nd year player Chris Henry (ran a 4.33 40 yard dash at 2007 combine). Then there's the proverbial "thunder" of Titans leading rusher Lendale White. As a rookie, Chris Henry only played in 7 games, due in part to a 4 game drug suspension for marijuana use. Hopefully reefer boy sees the competition around him and will respond. He has size (6 foot 2, 230 pounds) and speed, and has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield (6 catches in minimal action last year). Expect improvement for the 2nd year player out of Arizona. As for Chris Johnson, first thing you see is speed. Undersized at 5 foot 11, 200 pounds, this cat had quite the productive career at East Carolina. He averaged 37 receptions a year in college, as well as a stout 4.5 yards per carry. He was great in the return game also, versatility that will make him immediately helpful to the Titans. Lendale White had a solid year in 2007, leading the team in carries (304) and yards (1110). ESPN did a top 20 RB ranking for the NFL, and the 23 year old Lendale didn't crack it, despite finishing 12th in the league in rushing in 2007. An improving running game should open up the passing game for Vince and the Titans. Look for Heimerdinger to use more dual back sets, more shotgun looks for Vince, and more short passing plays specifically for running backs.

Of course, the single biggest factor to offensive improvement is Vince Young. Production fell way off for Vince in '07, after a Pro Bowl (alternate) year and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2006. Many say this decline was simply defenses catching up to Vince's game. Certainly that had a part to do with it. Norm Chow, the former offensive coordinator, is known for running his west coast offense without regard to a skilled, mobile QB like Vince. Word is their relationship was not the best, as it was well known that Chow wanted the Titans to draft Matt Leinart instead of Vince Young at #3 in the 2006 NFL draft.

Hopefully the guidance of the experienced and fresh offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, as well as general maturation of Vince Young and the Titans WR/RB core, will all combine to improve the Titans offense. Look for a very solid season by Vince Young and the Titans, particulary in the passing game.

Fisher-Ball

(spreadsheets mentioned in post may not be viewable in email or RSS versions of this post - click the link in those spots, or view the blog site by clicking on the header picture in the email / RSS feed)

Sounds like Vegas money is against the Titans making another playoff appearance in 2008, with odds as the #19 team most likely to win the Super Bowl. Coming off a 10-6 season in 2007, earning a spot as a wild card in the playoffs, many think the young core of the Titans will only improve. Obviously not Vegas.

Most that doubt the Titans point to most glaring weakness on the team - passing offense. Vince Young had a subpar year certainly in 2007. The most surprising thing to many is that the Titans haven't seemed to try and upgrade their passing offense, particularly wide receivers. Despite having a passing offense that finished 27th overall in the league in 2007, the Titans signed no big names at wide out, and did not draft any WRs in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft. Why? Jeff Fisher has shown throughout his career that he doesn't need a top flight passing game or elite WRs to win in the NFL.

Some quick Jeff Fisher facts:

• Born in LA; played college ball for USC (not everyone is perfect)


• Played as a Defensive Back in the NFL, mostly a special teamer


• Background is defense, most of which was learned under Buddy Ryan, whom he played for and coached under


• Named to first head coaching job during the 1994 season, as coach of the Houston Oilers


• Still coach of the same franchise, entering his 14th season (longest tenured coach in NFL, 2nd longest in American pro sports, I believe to only Jerry Sloan of the Utah Jazz [1988])

Jeff Fisher's best teams were defensively strong teams. He's also had some good offensive teams, particularly with Steve McNair at the helm. Here are the seasons that Jeff Fisher's Titans made the playoffs, along with some defensive and passing stats (league ranks based on yards):

The 1999 team went to the Super Bowl, the famous "Music City Miracle" year. The 2000 team was easily the best team Fisher had, tops in the league in defense. Unfortunately that team lost to the Ravens in an ugly playoff game, despite being arguably the league's top team that year. 2002 ended with a lopsided loss in the AFC Championship to the Raiders, and 2003 was a close loss in the divisional round to the Patriots. In 2007, the Chargers sent us packing quickly. So in ranking these teams, I would put them in order of best to worst like this: 2000, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2007.

The common trait on good Jeff Fisher teams is easy to point out - they play defense, and have balance on offense. The passing game doesn't need to be great for Jeff Fisher to have a playoff team. Fisher teams have finished in the top 10 in the league in passing only 3 times (2001, 2003, and 2005). Only 1 of those teams - the 2003 team - went to the playoffs. That year Steve McNair won the MVP of the League, and you can tell that the running game was secondary.

Talk about a telling stat here in the spreadsheet below. Yes, you can argue against the use of attempts as a justifying stat, especially given the late game offense of winning teams being to run the ball. But this is interesting (league ranks):

Maybe this is why the Titans used their first round draft pick to take a RB in 2008 (Chris Johnson), after taking a running back in the 2nd round in both 2006 (Lendale White) and 2007 (Chris Henry). Jeff Fisher knows that running the ball and defense are more important factors to the Titans' winning than passing offense is.

The passing game issues need to be addressed, as 27th in the league just won't cut it. But improving from 27th to 15th (where I think the Titans can really do some damage if the running game and defense remain steady) is not such a leap as many pundits think it is. The next post tomorrow will have a profile of the Titans WR core, which I think will be much improved. I think you'll be surprised this next season at how much production the Titans get from the 11 WRs currently on the roster.

Laugh now . . .

When Pau Gasol left the Grizzlies this past February, many fans were excited beyond belief. While Pau was the team's best player, his European style of play and lack of a connection with the fans, caused him to receive the brunt of frustration by Memphis fans. The Grizzlies got seemingly little in return - and many think the deal was "highway robbery by the Lakers", and that Memphis is the "laughingstock of the league." But was the deal really that bad? Lets recap the deal: (note: if viewing this post via email or RSS feed, spreadsheet tables may not be viewable; click on blog link to view)

Kwame Brown really was just a warm body to complete the trade, as his $9M salary for 2008 was the last season on his contract, and he won't be re-signed. Aaron McKie was another expiring contract situation. All of this balancing has to occur as apart of NBA trade rules, relegating that trades must be near equal value. So the real trade was Pau for Crittenton, the two 1st round picks, the ability to use cap space, and none other than Pau's brother, Marc Gasol. Lets break down each piece:

• Javaris Crittenton was the #19 pick of the 2007 NBA Draft. During his one and only season at Georgia Tech as a freshman, he scored 15 points a game and had a solid season. Javaris is only 20 years old currently, and being a 6 foot 5 point guard, he definitely has some solid upside. He hit 20 points in a game twice for the Grizzlies, who played him quite a bit in March and especially April. The Grizzlies are still figuring out if Crittenton has the passing and defensive skills to be a solid NBA player, but the offense is definitely there. How he develops will be a big part of judging the deal.
  



• The 2 first round picks in 2008 and 2010 - The pick in 2008 is at #28 due to the Lakers having a top record in the league. That pick could net someone like Chris Douglas-Roberts, or possibly Joey Dorsey, both former Tigers that could be available at that spot, among others. If this pick nets someone who is on the team for 3 or more years, then the pick was a success. In 2010, we dont know where the pick will fall. If the Lakers are no good (unlikely), this could be a fantastic value if it were to fall within the top 10. What value we obtain from these picks must also be used to judge the balance of the trade.
  



• Cap Space - Many people were upset that Pau was traded for "nothing". Ideally we would have gotten an actual player that would help the team for a few years; however, people dont realize how tough it is to get rid of a deal the size of Pau's in the NBA given the salary structure. Unlike the NFL, you can't simply cut a player and not pay him in the NBA. Interesting column here from Memphis favorite Geoff Calkins, poking fun at the Cap space idea. But in reality, the trade of Pau Gasol cannot be judged until we sign a player with the vacated space. As I've posted about previously, there are a few free agents in 2008, but more in 2009. Luring a player to Memphis will take top dollar, however, as players won't to play for winners. Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, Elton Brand, and Shawn Marion are a few names over the next two summers that might spark interest. Whomever we sign with max $$ will be the most important decision the Grizzlies have ever made.



• Marc Gasol - What, another Gasol?!? Different Gasol though. This version is 7 Foot 1 inch, weighing in at 260 pounds - a much more physical and beefy version of his brother. The Grizzlies acquired his "draft rights", which the Lakers selected in the 2nd round of the 2007 NBA Draft. That means the Grizzlies have the right to negotiate and sign him, but at a cost. As Marc Gasol won the Spanish league MVP this past year, he has risen to be a candidate for the top overall player in Europe. Interesting article here about him, as well as another good one at Sporting News here, both very interesting. The skinny is that most think he is NBA ready right now, and that he would be a top 15 pick in this year's NBA draft if he hadn't already been drafted. He is known for having "very good upper body strength", yet "touch" on his shot and good post moves. Sounds appealing. If Marc comes over to the Grizz for the '08-'09 season, as many expect, and he performs as well as of the last few Spanish league MVPs to jump to the NBA (Luis Sciola, Juan Carlos Navarro, Andres Nocioni), the Grizz would be ecstatic. He would be a solid tandem with Darko at center. We still have a gaping hole at power forward, but you can never have too many centers that are at least decent.
  
  

The Grizzlies will net 4 players (Crittenton, 2 draft picks, Marc Gasol) plus whomever they sign with the cap space (1 or 2 people). So before everyone gets too excited about this deal being "the most lop sided in history", lets judge the deal based upon the 5 or 6 players that end up suiting up for the Grizz over the next few years because of the deal.

The Pope's prediction - Marc Gasol will be as good as his brother, but tougher and more likeable. The Lakers 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010 become solid performers for the Grizz. Javaris Crittenton is either cut or traded at some point in the next year. As for whom we might sign, my best guess would be Shawn Marion or Elton Brand, but thats really tough to predict. If we sign either of those, and my predictions hold true, how about a starting lineup/backup depth chart like this?

Plenty of fun assumptions made for that depth chart, certainly. But would anyone be able to say that our team isn't better off with this depth chart, than with this?

White Out

Against my promise of last Friday, I am posting again today about Notre Dame. Two things happened over the weekend, one of which being a huge occurence:

• Kevin White is no longer the Athletics Director at Notre Dame. He has accepted the same position (with the addition of Vice President at the front of his title) at Duke University. At first glance, this move was one of job security for Kevin White. It was long known that White opposed the firing of Tyrone Willingham in 2003, but the move occured anyway due to pressure from the Board of Trustees. In addition, it was also reported that he was against the 10 year contract given to Weis just months into his first season. White likely saw that he was going to be held accountable for decisions that he wasn't fully controlling. I'm sure the less intense and microscoped environment of Durham will be a much better retirement than in South Bend, where he could have been one more bad football season away from being fired. We can't forget that he signed Bob Davie to a contract extension in early 2000, only to fire him later that year. Then he hired George O'Leary, who was on campus for 7 days before being fired due to resume issues. And then he hired Willingham and oversaw that debacle. No doubt that non-football sports made enormous strides under White however. Overall it was a great job in non-football sports but a sub-par one for Notre Dame football.



• Notre Dame and Utah will likely play in 2010 at Notre Dame stadium in a 1 game deal. This is a good move for the Irish, as we get a brand new flavor that is also a competitive college football team. Certainly they are not tier 1, but they are a solid opponent that is respectable and (should be) beatable. Always good to keep the schedule fresh and geographically spread out.

Right now there is no timetable or official hiring schedule for a new AD. The South Bend Tribune has created a list of candidates of interest, with really only two things connecting them: Athletics Directing experience, as well as passing through Notre Dame at some point in their lives. Prediction from my seat: Lawrence "Bubba" Cunningham, who has a few huge things going for him.

1. He graduated from ND (twice, 1984 & 1988)



2. He was an athlete at ND (golf)



3. He worked in the Athletics office at ND for 15 years (!!) after college, being the lead negotiator in the current deal with Adidas.



4. He has now been a full athletics director at two schools (Ball St. & Tulsa)

I met the guy once, and he was super charismatic and classy - perfect for this role. Certainly I think there is one other viable candidate that I just must mention . . .