Gut Instincts

In the last few days, I have been asked a question about Charlie Weis and his future as the Notre Dame football coach no less than 10 times. I'm sure many of you have experienced the same fate. ESPN is circling above the wounded giant of ND football right now, with everyone from Colin Cowherd to Beano Cook all getting their shots in via nonstop coverage.

For those of you who want Charlie fired now, this is probably not your post. We all can love ND football, but have differences of opinion in how to make it great again. I am not certain - as I was a few years ago - that Charlie is the guy. But I am certain that its too soon to give up on Charlie, and the verdict is still out - albeit not by much.

To be fully balanced, I present the top 5 reasons to keep Charlie . . . followed by the top 5 reasons to fire him. You be the judge.

Keep Charlie because . . .

• Recruiting under Weis has been at a Holtz level. I know recruiting rankings are not perfect, but Weis has had 3 straight top 10 classes by nearly every publication. His best class yet - the #1 ranked (after Alabama did not get 6 kids into school, the Irish won the Rivals.com 2008 Recruiting Crown) 2008 class is already doing damage on the field (Kyle Rudolph, TE, Michael Floyd, WR, Ethan Johnson, DE, Robert Blanton, DB, just to name a few). The talent is coming in, but it takes more than a class or three to get a program to the top tier. Top programs recruit every single year, creating extreme competition at every position, which then results in depth and more improvement from hungry players looking to see the field.



• This team is finally playing defense. Pairing this defense with Brady Quinn teams migh have resulted in another win or two, or at least more respectable losses. Easily his best defensive performance since Weis has been head coach. Currently, through 9 games, the Irish defense ranks 39th in the country in yards (324 yard per game), 35th in the country in scoring defense (20.4), and 45th in pass defense (196 yards per game). While its not light years ahead of prior years, its certainly avoiding the big play and giving the Irish offense ample chance to win games. The most points the defense has allowed in regulation this season in 1 game is 24! points, against Pittsburgh (remember, UNC only scored 21 points against our defense). The defense is improving and is now a slightly above average unit capable of holding its own against most teams.



• The offense hasn't been as bad as you think. The Irish have outgained their opponents in 3 of their 4 losses, outgaining everyone but Michigan St. While the offense has stalled a bit lately, it is still moving the chains up the field. The problem has been turnovers!, which have a lot to do with the youth on the field. With 25 of 28 touchdowns this season being scored by freshman or sophomores, youth is bound to make some mistakes. Make no mistake, the Irish have played poorly offensively the past two games. And I will not even attempt to defend our woeful running attack. My point is that the turnovers have doomed the Irish more than anything else - not lack of offensive ability or production. 1 more positive offensive play against UNC or Pitt would likely have you thinking differently about the Irish offense long about now.



• Next year, this team will be good. Weis will have juniors and sophomores all over the depth chart, with a strong number of seniors as well. Throw in a freshman 5 star Running Back in Cierre Wood, as well as more developed Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, and you will see an offense that could challenge all the records Brady set. The schedule is once again favorable with 4 built in wins against (Nevada, Purdue, Washington State, Washington), 4 winnable games (Navy, Pitt, Connecticut, Stanford), and 4 tough games (USC, @ Michigan, Michigan Stl, and Boston College). 2009 is Charlie's Waterloo - 9 wins or he's gone. I think 10 is what most people would expect, but 9 wins in 2009 will be what it takes to keep his job.

Fire Charlie because . . .

• The talent on the defensive and offensive lines has not and is not there. The Irish rushing attack sits at 95th in the country, despite having multiple 4 star running backs with major college offers (Jonas Grey, Robert Hughes, Armando Allen, and James Aldridge). While none of these backs is Barry Sanders, there has not been consistent run blocking for them to find lanes. On defense, its not much better for the DLine. The Irish defense ranks 111th in the country in tackles for a loss, and 82nd in sacks. Certainly linebackers need to make plays also, but the defensive line is clearly the issue. No team without strong lines on both sides of the ball can even sniff being in the top tier of college football teams. Recruiting hasn't been great on the Dline in particular, and doesn't look to be much better next year either.



• Charlie Weis has lost his last 15 games against teams with a winning record at the end of the season. That barb hurts badly, as it should. The Irish are not beating any good teams, or even 7-5 type teams right now. Navy this weekend will give him the chance to break this streak, as Navy is 6-3 and likely will finish with at least 7 wins. But beating Navy won't get Charlie much more than a pat on the back. No matter what excuses can be made for 2007 or the BCS blowouts in 2005 and 2006, the proof is in the W/L record, and Charlie has just not gotten the job done against decent competition. A few more losses to add onto this streak and Charlie is fired, with cause (right Al Davis?).



• Bad situational football, particularly in the 2nd half. The 2nd half and overtime of the Pitt game was the worst I had seen an Irish team handle time pressure since Ty Willingham. The lack of adjustments in the 2nd half of the UNC and Michigan St game definitely played a roll in each loss. No matter what talent is there, a well coached team will show poise and solid execution down the stretch. That statement cannot be used to describe the Irish right now. There have not been ample opportunities to show poise late when the game is still on the line, but we have seen nothing to say the Irish can handle the pressure since 2006/2005 (the final offensive drives of the UCLA game in '06, and the USC and Stanford games in '05). Another loss that was mismanaged late like the Pitt game will be devastating for Weis.



• Embarrassment factor. Weis has endured more 30 pt losses (3) and shutouts (3) in his 4 years than any big program should ever have in a decade. Any more additions to these tallies quite simply will be fatal to Weis's tenure at ND. Fans cannot and should not tolerate this. Not much to add here.

No matter how many pro and con lists you make, I believe decisions and opinions have to come from your "gut" - or the brain's evolved decision making capacity. Sometimes you just know the answer, but you may not be able to explain it. Oftentimes that feeling is the result of your brain calculating and weighing all these pro's and con's and spitting out the answer.

My "gut" says that Charlie is going to finish his 10 year contract. I think we'll remember these tough losses and this tough time just like that night at the casino where you're entire stack of chips was down to one or two more hands of blackjack - but then you rallied back to win 10 times what you started with. The chips are low for the Irish football program right now, but this session is not over yet. Win a few more this season, and then next season we put all our chips in the middle and see what happens.

Audible

Coach Weis's Tuesday press conference was the most grim I can remember. You can view the media session at und.com, in the video tab, on the main page.

Typically the media focuses the questions on specific issues relating to Irish health, the upcoming opponent, or the gameplan offensively or defensively for the coming game. This session was much different. The most pointed question was (I summarize), 'What do you say to people who are not sure if you are right man for the job (as ND Coach)?'. Charlie replied (again I summarize, but make no doubts that this is accurate), 'Its about where your program is going, where will it be. I am confident in where we are going and I am confident that the program will get to where we all want it to be'.

Another question to Charlie was really a rhetorical one - something along the lines of, 'Coach, Notre Dame fans are very impatient; do you think some ND fans are overly impatient and overly upset right now?' Charlie responded with a very honest response: "I'd be perturbed too if I were them. I wouldn't be very happy with the way the Pittsburgh game ended, and I wouldn't be too excited about how the offense and special teams played (against Boston College). If you look at last week's game against Boston College and the previous week's game against Pittsburgh, you sit there and say, We're sitting there (5-4), why aren't we better than that?".

But in perhaps the biggest, most important news that came from the press conference, is that Charlie Weis is going to get back involved and start gameplanning and calling plays for the offense. If you remember, he gave up playcalling in the spring to his offensive coordinator, Mike Haywood. Charlie sees the offense as the major problem, and plans to get more directly involved in the process.


I see a much less confident and less cocky Charlie Weis today. That saddens me a bit, because part of the initial allure of Charlie was this confidence in his abilities. I think it has clear that he has realized that college football is more about motivation and recruiting than schematic advantages and gameplans, like the NFL.

Let me make this clear - I have not given up on Charlie. His recruiting has been fantastic, and is continuing to be in the nation's elite. And I think him returning to playcalling is the right move, provided that he ends up being somewhere in the middle on the spectrum of pure playcaller (like in 2005-2007) and pure headcoach (through 9 games this season). Playcalling and gameplanning has always been the "core competency" of Charlie Weis - put simply, it's what he does best. But being a headcoach requires leadership and responsibility over all facets of a football program - not just playcalling - but everything from punt formations to study hall.

So in short, we need Charlie to call plays AND be the head coach. And do them both well, while not letting up on recruiting one bit. Whether or not he can adjust and do all three - very quickly, as in, this week quickly - will determine how long he remains head coach.

Who is the real Fredo?

The Irish fell to the Eagles for the 6th straight time, almost completely erasing a chance at an 8-4 record for the Irish this season. BC needed to do very little to win the game, simply letting the Irish self destruct in the 17-0 rout. BC scored 3 times, all 3 aided by Irish turnovers (7 points on a interception returned for a TD, 7 points after a blocked punt in BC territory, and 3 points after another interception). You can review the game stats and recap here.


I won't spend much time on my predictions, which you can view in the recap below. I predicted Jimmy would throw 3 TDs and 1 INT, and I was grossly wrong. Jimmy's 4 interceptions was a career high, and was easily the story of the game. The Irish passing attack got some yards, but the turnovers negated it all. There are no excuses, not even the fact that Jimmy was bedridden Friday evening with the flu. Stat of the day - The Irish outgained the Eagles by 50 yards, marking the 3rd loss out of 4 this season in which the Irish have outgained the opponent.


Numerous thoughts come to mind 36 hours after this loss - is Charlie the right guy to be coach for the Irish? How can the offense, with such talent and early season success, completely self destruct and lay a goose egg? Why does this team look mentally unprepared for each big game they play? How in the world has Charlie Weis and Irish lost to the last 15 opponents they have played with a winning record?


At this point, we can focus on the bad news or the good. The bad news is that the Irish have not proven anything to anyone, or earned any respect outside of recruiting rankings. The bad news is that the Irish offense got shut out by a team that had given up an average of 34 points in its last 3 games. But, the good news is that there are 3 more football games left to improve, including 1 against an arch rival USC. The Irish defense - more good news. They continue to keep every game winnable and in fact did much better than that against BC, holding them to 245 yards total offense. Another piece of good news is that the Irish will likely have a chance to break the 15 year bowl curse on the program. Winning a bowl game would remove an awful statistic too often referenced, as well as usher the Irish into the offseason with a winning feeling unlike any of the past 14 seasons.


As disgusted as many of you are, ask yourself this: at the beginning of this season - or more directly, at the end of last season - would you have accepted a 7-5 season and a bowl win? As prideful as we Notre Dame fans are, I think the answer for most is yes. Certainly it cannot be classified as a great season, but simply a required stepping stone on the trail from 3-9 to National title contender.



Of course, 7-5 means beating Navy and Syracuse. Navy is once again good (6-3, beat Wake Forest earlier this year) and will certainly pound the Irish if they do not recover. The fact that Navy has a winning record will allow the Irish a chance at breaking the 15 straight losses to teams with winning records. It's all about ending bad streaks and creating positive ones.

Boston College Game Preview

IRISH @ Boston College - ESPN, 7pm CENTRAL time, Saturday night primetime

The 5-3 Irish and 5-3 Eagles face off in Boston in another big game for both team's bowl hopes. Games like this determine the difference between the Meineke Car Care Bowl and the Gator Bowl. ESPN HD will be televising, and I imagine the crew of Mike Patrick/Todd Blacklidge will be announcing the game, although I could not confirm. Now for what to watch for . . .

When Boston College has the ball . . . you might think this team is North Carolina. Their offense is very similar to the Tar Heels, in that the QB (Chris Crane) has more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (8), and their rushing offense is solid but not great. BC has the 82nd ranked offense in the country based on yards; 91st in passing yards, 59th in rushing yards (check out the cool NCAA statistics page that ranks every team in every category). The Eagles average 4.2 yards per carry for the season on the ground, but a very pedestrian 5.5 yards per pass attempt. While the offense as a whole looks like North Carolina, I don't believe BC has any gamebreakers on the offensive side of the ball like North Carolina did in Brandon Tate and Hakeem Nicks. The Irish defense ranks 50th against the run, 64th against the pass, and 38th in scoring defense. Bottom line - I do not expect BC to be able to get more than 24 points against the Irish, period. NC got only 21 points against the Irish defense, and I do not think BC can do any better. Look for the Irish to pressure Crane into some bad throws (which is always Tenuta's plan!).

When Notre Dame has the ball . . . you might see the same offense as in the North Carolina game - 5 wide, no running back, quick passes. Boston College has a very solid defensive line and linebacker corps, but is not as strong in the secondary. However, BC is still a top 18 ranked defense against the run and the pass, so its not like they are weak. This defense is not as opportunistic as the UNC defense is (UNC is ranked 6th in the nation in turnovers), and I think that will be the major difference between ND's offensive performance against UNC and the one to be displayed Saturday night at Chestnut Hill. Running the ball on Boston College, in my opinion, will only happen once we spread them out to defend the pass. I fully expect (and hope) the Irish come out 5 wide and let Jimmy get into a passing groove early. Then run some draws with Armando, as well as a healthy dose of swing passes. If the Irish try to run the ball early, I will be surprised and disappointed (unless it works!).

Prediction time. Check out my Pitt preview post grading below - even though I was way wrong on the score, my stat predictions were downright scary.

• Prediction 1 - Jimmy will pass for 245 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. A gritty performance in which the Irish get great field position and have some short fields.


• Prediction 2 - Chris Crane will account for 3 turnovers - either fumbles or INTs. One big defensive play in the 2nd half in favor of the Irish will be the difference.


• Prediction 3 - Golden Tate - house call. I am going to keep predicting this until it happens, and I started predicting this last week. I think his confidence is there, and its just going to take that perfect kick or punt that is bound to come soon. I say it happens early in the game tomorrow night.


• Prediction 4 - The Irish grind out a difficult but gutsy 115 yards rushing. BC doesn't give up much run yardage, so this will have been hard earned.

I think this game will go a long way towards determining how Irish fans will remember this season. A win over BC, and this season will be remembered as progress and growing, with a bright future. A loss to BC confuses Irish fans - and this confusion officially opens the debate on the question all Irish fans fear - Is Charlie the right coach? I guess we could lose to BC and then win out, including a bowl game - certainly that finish with conjure feelings that I liken with a victory over BC. But in reality, if the Irish lose to BC, they are not ready to be anything but 6-6 or 7-5.

Score prediction time. I think this game is going to be a good one, but one that is more about BC stumbles and Notre Dame capitalizing on easy chances than anything else.

IRISH 31 BC 24

(Record in games straight up picking the winner is 6-2. Record against the point spread is 5-3. I predicted wrongly that the Irish would beat North Carolina and Pitt, and I failed to pick the spread winner in the Mich St game, the Stanford game, and the Pitt game.)

Shaq Fu

This morning Notre Dame received another committ for its 2010 class in Shaquelle Evans, WR from Inglewood, California. The 6 ' 1" 203 pound wideout is a huge get for the Irish, especially since it marks another California recruiting victory head to head over USC. Evans was a former "soft verbal" of USC, until he took his official visit to Notre Dame and was blown away.

Here are the recruiting rankings and profile links on Evans - Scout.com ranks him a 4 star, and the #8 WR in the nation. Rivals.com ranks Evans as the #7 WR in the country, also a 4 star (rated #51 prospect overall). ESPN Recruiting ranks Evans as the #3 WR in the country, #21 prospect overall (note that the ESPN Recruiting link includes free video highlights - pretty cool). And for those of you that don't believe in recruiting rankings, the kid had offers from Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, Michigan, UNLV, Cal, Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon, Colorado, and Notre Dame. So obviously, there peoples that think this kid can play.

The more elite WR talent Charlie can collect, the more problems defenses will have against the Irish. Matchup up "Shaq's" talents with Michael Floyd and Golden Tate will cause stopping the Notre Dame offense to be as difficult as solving the Pythagorean theorem. Now for some Shaq quotes:

Lets hope Shaq can be half as good as the real Shaq. I am going to have a lot of fun with the name "Shaq" over the next four years.