Michigan Game Preview

Hail! to the victors valiant

Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes

Hail! Hail! to Michigan

The leaders and best!

Hail! to the victors valiant

Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes

Hail! Hail! to Michigan,

The champions of the West!

As a blogger, I try to be impartial, objective, and to remove bias from my posts. Last week I picked Notre Dame to win but to struggle. Nevada was the perfect school to prepare a well thought out preview for - I had no feeling about the school previously, with minimal prior knowledge to skew my preparation. The same cannot be said for the week 2 opponent of the Irish - the University of Michigan Wolverines.

So lets go ahead and get this out of the way: I hate Michigan. Reading the chorus to their fight song makes me hate them even more. Seriously - has there ever been a more desperate and screaming attempt to say "We are better than you! We are the best! Look at us!"?

Every team has a rival that their fans "hate". In the sports world, "hate" is a much less powerful word than in real life. Of course I respect the University of Michigan (mostly), and definitely their tradition, fan base, stadium, and players. The parallel would not apply if I "hated" another human being. When it comes to "hate" for Notre Dame fans, only two schools really come to mind: Michigan and USC.

While USC has been our rival for a longer period of time, the Michigan rivalry has been more heated. Numerous times during the years, Michigan tried to stop the series of games between the teams, not playing the Irish for 36 years after being beaten by Notre Dame in 1943. "They need us more than we need them", the great Michigan coach Bo Schembechler said. When Knute Rockne and the Irish tried to join the Big 10 conference during the 20s, a blackball effect was orchestrated by Michigan AD Fielding Yost. Known as being anti-immigrant and anti-Catholic - both of which were applicable to Notre Dame - Yost even threatened other Big 10 teams that would play the Irish. Traveling outside the midwest was the answer for Notre Dame - and the end result is a national following, filled with inter-sectional rivalries like USC, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Navy, Army, etc. Please keep this history in mind as you root for the Irish on Saturday.

Now for a little bit of a game preview via keys to the game for the Irish.

When Michigan has the ball . . .

• Confusing the youngsters - Michigan will be starting a true freshman QB (Tate Forcier), and playing another in the speed Denard Robinson. Forcier is a great balance of throw and run for the spread offense, whereas Denard is more of a pure running threat. The Irish will give up some runs, but we must continue to blitz and throw confusing coverages in the hopes of a big play.
• Limit big plays on the ground - I feel confident about our ability to defend the deep pass against a younger QB and with our experienced/capable secondary. Nevada was able to get too many 9 to 10 yard runs, and we must find a way to slow down this attack from Michigan. Will be THE key to the game.

When the Irish have the ball . . .

• Get Michigan to respect the pass - Typically coaches establish the run, then pass. Today's college game requires an opposite approach, in my opinion. Until we pass Michigan out of their aggressive and capable front 7, the Irish will struggle to run the ball. Running the ball for the Irish to the tune of 150 yards will be essential in winning this game, whether is for big short yardage plays or just running some clock.
• Hit the Tight End - Kyle Rudolph is going to have some opportunities to make plays. Last year, the Irish threw up top on Michigan quite a bit with Golden Tate. I expect Michigan to prepare for the deep pass, and stop the run. That leaves Rudolph in 1 on 1 coverage against a linebacker or safety. We MUST exploit this expected tactic.

All hatred for the Wolverines aside, this will be a great football game. The underdog does incredibly well, so I would rather the Wolverines be slight favorites. The Irish must start winning and dominating some games like this - on the road, against a quality opponent - if we are going to be a BCS caliber program. Time to put up, or shut up. And I think they do.

Vatican Smoke prediction:

Notre Dame 31 Michigan 24

Jimmy Clausen throws for 3 TDs, including his first INT of the season. The Irish get an interception returned for a TD on an errant pass from Forcier for the 4 TD, and a late FG to comfort the masses by Freshman Nick Tausch.

Have a great weekend, and GO IRISH!

Nevada Post Game

A very good start for the Irish felt more like a relief than anything else. The talent is there but getting off to a good start often releases a lot of built up pressure on the program - letting things flow a bit easier. A few fast facts about the game:

• The Irish dismantled the Nevada Wolfpack 35-0, marking the first shutout of the Charlie Weis era. Last shutout was 7 years ago in 2002 against Rutgers, my last home game as a senior.
• Jimmy Clausen finished 15 for 18 with 2 of the 3 incompletions being "drops". Combined with 4 TDs, Jimmy had a near perfect day.
• The Irish rushed for 178 yards, but more importantly, 4.3 YPC on 41 attempts
• The Irish allowed ZERO sacks in the game (kudos to the offensive line)
• Nevada rushed for 153 yards on 29 carries, good for a not so hot for the Irish 5.3 YPC
• Nevada was 2 for 11 converting 3rd downs. The Irish finished 6 for 12 on 3rd down conversions
• Notre Dame finished with 2 sacks of Nevada and 4 tackles for a loss.
• 20 (!) new Irish players saw gametime for the first time in their freshman or redshirt freshman seasons

As for my predicted score of 38-27, close for the Irish but not for the Wolfpack. Kyle Rudolph's opening TD was correctly predicted, and was in the ballpark predicting Jimmy's day. You can check out my game prediction here if you like.

A few post game tidbits for you:

• The "Real" Score - The Irish deserved to win by at least 3 to 4 touchdowns, but not 35-0. That said, Nevada could move the ball between the 20s but not inside. There is something about this defense that turns on when a team is closing in on the end zone - even last year it was apparent. Whether is a big 2nd down sack forcing a 3rd and long, or a big tackle on 3rd down, the Irish defense makes the most of every opportunity they achive (or is given to them).
• Depth Building - To play as many youngsters as we did was also a huge plus. Good programs develop depth by playing their backups early and often - which the Irish were able to do on Saturday. Even backup QB Dayne Crist got in the game for a good period of time. After Sam Bradford went down, every team knows that a backup QB is just one play away from being thrust into the spotlight. 3 Offensive lineman on the 2nd team got reps with the first team during the 1st half, another huge bonus.
• Offensive Formations Galore - Charlie's mantra is that he uses multiple formations to run common plays - confusing the defense and gaining synergies on offense. Multiple tight ends is probably Weis's best formation - and one that is seen less in college than in the pros. The Irish were able to run about 40% of the plays with 2 tight ends, as opposed to the prior 2 years where we lacked the depth to run multiple tight end formations. Look for the offense to excel simply because of the formations now available to Weis due to our TE depth.
• Freshman Impact - Manti Te'o (pictured above) is going to be a beast at linebacker. On his first play he blitzed, was out of the play, but then chased the play down from the backside to hit Kaepernick for a huge tackle. He had two other tackles/hits in the second half that were 2 of the more powerful tackles I have seen by an Irish defender in years (see above). His playing time will gradually increase as he gains a better grasp of the defense, in line with our game plan. Backup RB and kick returner Theo Reddick did a nice job last week as well. The scatback has some explosiveness and should be fun to watch.

NBC broadcast is still a bit cheesy, but much less so than year's past. Pat Hayden is fine, and Tom Hammond is pretty bland and painful to listen to. The computer graphics and animations, along with the music, are much better this year.

Below is a good summary of all the key plays in the game - a good, efficient watch. Watch it, then forget about it. One of our most hated rivals awaits us at week's end. Check back later this week for some good Michigan vs Notre Dame info. Early line in Vegas - Irish favored by 3.5.

Nevada Game Preview

The Irish take on Nevada on Saturday to open up the 2009 season. If you haven't been following the blog during August, check out the 10 positional previews here, as well as the season prediction post here. The positional previews are great for an overview of each position, incorporating tidbits from fall camp. Please check them out and let us know whether you enjoyed them.

Nevada is not the pushover that they may sound to the casual college football fan. But make no doubt about it - the Irish are the more talented team and should win this game soundly. Unfortunately, the recent Irish squads lose too many games they shouldn't, and Nevada has many of the components needed to pull off a shocker this weekend. The components that could help them win are . . .

• Experienced Quarterback - Colin Kaepernick is one of only 5 players in college football history to rush for a 1000 yards and throw for 2000 in a single season. He is also one of only a few to throw AND rush for 20TDs in a season. The redshirt junior is 6' 6" and 220 pounds of Quarterbacking efficiency. Many compare him to Vince Young, with a better arm (drafted in the MLB draft this past year as a pitcher, did not sign). The Irish are going to have to respect his rushing ability, while also defending against his improving passing skills. From a preseason perspective, Kaepernick is the most feared QB on the Irish schedule - easily.
• Different yet Disciplined Offense - Nevada runs an offense called the "Pistol". The QB lines up in a shotgun formation - one yard closer to the center than a normal shotgun. The additional space allows a running back to line up behind the QB, not alongside. The ball is snapped to the QB, giving the benefits of a shotgun while also maintaining a downhill rushing approach with the RB in the backfield. The playcalling blends an I-Form straight ahead rushing attack with elements of the spread and the option. A querky offense that can confuse a more talented team and give yourself a chance to win.
• Experienced Coach - Chris Ault has now coached Nevada 23 seasons over 33 years during 3 different stints. Ault was inducted to the college football hall of fame in 2001, and has shown an ability to adapt his approach to give Nevada the best chance to win games against bigger more powerful programs. His teams have finished the last 5 seasons with a winning record and a bowl game appearance. A victory like this would easily be the "biggest victory in Nevada history and of Ault's career", according to a Reno journalist I read earlier this week (sorry no link).
• Pass Rush - From Tim Prister on UND.com: "Nevada boasts the most productive defensive end tandem returning to the college game in '09. Juniors Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch combined for 21.5 sacks and 36 tackles for lost yardage - as sophomores! Basped - 6-foot-6, 240 pounds - has the 'measurables' that NFL scouts crave. Moch - 6-foot-1, 245 pounds - led the Wolf Pack in sacks last year with 11.5 (to Basped's 10)." Yikes.

Notre Dame has some advantages as well:

• Passing Attack - The Irish return their top 3 passing targets from last year, as well as a junior QB looking to finally reach his potential. The offensive line is back en masse and ready to apply new coach Frank Verducci's techniques. There is no reason the Irish should not have passing success against the team with the dead last ranked pass defense in the country in 2008. 300 yards passing should be almost guaranteed. 380 yards for Clausen through the air is the prediction.
• Time to Prepare for "the Pistol" - "The Pistol" is an offense, not a shaggy haired legendary basketball player. Described above, this complicated offense takes time to prepare for. Having 2 weeks of nothing but Nevada game prep is definitely an advantage to our defense. Certainly the Irish were not be able to replicate the efficiency and speed of the Nevada offense in practice, but the more practice reps against a funky formation, the better.
• Talented Special Teams - Notre Dame's special teams had an overall banner year last year, despite an inconsistent field goal kicker. Top ranked kickoff coverage in the country, and top 30 in punt defense. Even more young athletes have been added to the mix, including a talented freshman kicker in Nick Tausch (who beat out senior Brandon Walker). Nevada was terrible in 2008 on kickoffs in particular - both returning (101st in the country) and return defense (113th). Punting wasn't much better, covering 62nd best and returning 99th best. Special Teams should be an area where our depth should be a major advantage. Our return units are in the good hands of freshman Theo Riddick (kickoffs) and the electrifying Golden Tate (punts). Look for the Irish to have early success in the kickoff return game, returning the opening kick to near midfield.
• Experienced Secondary - The Irish have 4 returning starters in the secondary - easily the deepest unit on the team (Free Safety Harrison Smith started at outside linebacker last year, replacing David Bruton who departed to the NFL). Currently the #3 CB on the roster in Darrin Walls was the best cover corner on the team in 2007. Check out the season previews for our safety and cornerback positions. Our defensive plan is likely to let our cornerbacks cover Nevada WRs 1 on 1, allowing the safeties to creep up and help the front slow down Kaepernick. We have the talent to do match up with their wideouts.

In the season prediction post, I predicted Notre Dame would win this game. I think the game is going to be exciting, yet not a blowout. Nevada will remain within striking distance, but the Irish will finish the game winning by a comfortable enough margin. Notre Dame's athleticism limits big plays from Nevada, while the Wolfpack offense does have success moving the ball. Some big red zone stops and a few turnovers limit the Wolfpack points, while the Irish return game sets the Irish offense up with great field position.

Irish 38 Nevada 27

A few more miscellaneous predictions: Jimmy Clausen throws 3 TDs, no interceptions, with 380 yards passing. Armando Allen has 1 TD rushing and 1 receiving, while Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph each contribute with a pass catch for a TD. The opening toss is won by Notre Dame, and we elect to receive. Theo Riddick, true freshman, returns the opening kick to the 50 yard line. 3 plays later, Kyle Rudolph catches a pass down the seam for the first Irish TD of the 2009 season.

Since the spread is -14pts (Irish favored), I am predicting the Irish will not cover. My other college football picks of the week are Tulsa -13.5 tonight vs Tulane, Wake Forest -2 vs Baylor, and Memphis +17 vs Ole Miss. Have a great Labor Day weekend and GO IRISH!

2009 Season Prediction

The season is upon us, and most college football fans can barely contain the excitement. I cannot remember an opening weekend with so many interesting games: Oklahoma St hosts Georgia, Alabama vs Virginia Tech, BYU vs Oklahoma, Oregon vs Boise St (tonight). And then of course Notre Dame opening up with Nevada (2:30pm central, NBC), with the Irish being two touchdown favorites over the #3 ranked rushing team in the country of 2008.

Its prediction time - with this year's theme being the same here at Vatican Smoke as it is for Charlie Weis and the Irish - "Don't Tell Me, Show Me". While Coach Weis won't predict anything, here is our first prediction: 2009 will be an memorable season for the Irish football team and fans. Either we watch our program turn the corner and begin a run of sustained success, or we get saddled with another rebuilding project and a new coach. It feels as though either of these outcomes are more likely than a run of the mill 7-5 season.

Now onto the specifc wins and losses. Each week, we will have an opponent specific preview with more details. Here is a quick rundown of how we here at Vatican Smoke think the season will play out:

• Sept 5th - Nevada - W
• Sept 12th - @ Michigan - W
• Sept 19th - Michigan St - L
• Sept 26th - Purdue - W
• Oct 3rd - Washington - W
• Oct 10th - BYE
• Oct 17th - USC - L
• Oct 26th - Boston College - W
• Oct 31st - Wash St (in San Antonio) - W
• Nov 7th - Navy - W
• Nov 14th - @ Pittsburgh - W
• Nov 21st - UConn - W
• Nov 28th - @ Stanford - L

• Overall Record: 9-3
• Bowl Game: Gator Bowl
• Opponent: North Carolina
• Bowl Game Score: ND 34 UNC 27
• Final Record: 10-3
• Final Ranking: #12 in the AP, #13 in the Coaches Poll

• Offensive MVP: Jimmy Clausen (Jr QB)
• Defensive MVP: Brian Smith (Jr Weakside LB)
• Best Freshman: Theo Reddick (Freshman return man & scatback RB)
• Special Teams MVP: Nick Tausch (Freshman Kicker)
• Most Improved: Armando Allen (Jr RB)

10-3 with a bowl victory in a New Years Day bowl. A solid season, but short of the BCS. Inconsistency will be the reason the Irish fall in very close losses to Michigan St, USC, and Stanford on a last second field goal. However, the Irish will greatly improve in turnovers and rushing offense. And finally the Irish will learn to beat down weaker competition. Only a few costly INTs by Jimmy Clausen, as well as the defense being unable to seal the deal, will hurt the Irish in their 3 close losses. USC loses the total offense battle against the Irish, but Pete Carroll's defense finds a way to make a big play in the 4th quarter. Michigan St beats up on the turnover prone Irish early, withstanding a solid comeback bid that falls short. Stanford outplays the complacent Irish in the 4th quarter, winning by a last second field goal. Sentiment heading into the offseason will be saved by the bowl game performance against a solid North Carolina squad. The "hot seat" talk about Charlie's job slows down to a drip, and recruiting gains even more momentum.

One last tidbit about the season that I found interesting - The great Notre Dame blog, Blue Gray Sky, last year compared Weis's 4 year coaching career to the standard 5 act dramatic structure of a play. Acts 1 and 2 were the "exposition" and "rising action of the hero" (2005-2006). Act 3 was the climax or turning point (2007). Act 4 was the "falling action" (2008). What will Act 5 be? Catastrophy (Tragedy) or Resolution (Comedy)? Enjoy Act 5, and check back on Friday for the Nevada game preview.

Positional Previews #1 - Quarterbacks

We are finishing the Notre Dame Football 2009 Positional Previews by counting down to the top ranked of the 10 positions. You can read about the 10 positions and an explanation of the rankings here. In short, #10 is the position that I am least confident/most worried about heading into the season, while #1 is the position I am most confident/least worried about. Ability, depth, and intangibles all factor in.

Today we hit up #1 - Quarterbacks

Depth Chart - The depth chart should remain unchanged for the 2009 and 2010 seasons - barring something extraordinary happening. This is the healthiest depth chart at Quarterback arguably since Ara Parseghian roamed the sidelines in the late 70s.

Talent - Plenty of it. Not many programs can boast two 5 star recruits at QB like the Irish can with Clausen and Crist (Clausen was ranked #1 QB and #1 overall recruit in the country in 2007, while Crist was ranked #2 QB and #25 overall recruit in the country in 2008). Evan Sharpley was a 3 star recruit in 2005 class, the first class after Weis was hired. Evan was a major player as a first basemen on the baseball team at ND, and was drafted in the 50th round by the Seattle Mariners in June. He had a great season this past summer in rookie ball, batting .333 with 7 HR/ 29 RBIs in 37 games (picture in Irish baseball uniform below). This spring Sharpley's baseball career will continue, but for now, he is focused on tutoring ND's backup Dayne Crist and running ND's scout team offense.

Changes - Crist (pictured in the spring game above) moving ahead of Sharpley is the biggest change at the position. Crist red shirted last season, so his 4 year eligibility clock starts this year. Look for Crist to get in some games this year to develop him for the future. Hopefully games like Washington, Washington St, and a few others, Crist can play the 4th quarter and get some live experience. Clausen is going to have to be more consistent this season than last. While he flirted with perfection against Hawaii and a first half against North Carolina, the Boston College and USC games were as bad offensively as any games in the Weis era. Hopefully Clausen's third season will be a huge leap forward in his decision making and consistency.

Depth - The depth chart and the talent section above speak to this issue. No longer is depth or talent an excuse at the quarterback position. Certainly Crist has zero game experience - and thats a huge factor should he be called upon due to injury. That's why having Sharpley is so important, a 5th year senior with 19 games worth of experience (2 starts) under his belt. In college football, QBs are often only as good as the talent around them. Sharpley and Crist should have a good pass blocking offensive line, and 2 major playmakers at WR in Floyd and Tate. Certainly there will be a dropoff if Clausen is hurt - but the Irish should be in much better shape than most teams who would lose their starter. A starting QB injury could mean death for some schools' seasons (Ole Miss comes to mind - what if Jevan Snead gets hurt?) The Irish can still contend with their 2nd or 3rd string QB this season, a major factor in ranking the QB position so high.

Goals - Here is a comparison between Jimmy Clausen and his predecessor, Brady Quinn. Brady was the much more likable quarterback. But don't let affinity for Brady or your scorn for Jimmy form your conclusion on the brash Californian - compare the stats, starting with their sophomore seasons:

• Brady Quinn 2004 (Soph) - 12 starts, 2586 yards, 54.1% completion, 17 TDs / 10 INTs, 125.9 passer rating
• Jimmy Clausen 2008 (Soph) - 13 starts, 3172 yards, 60.9% completion, 25 TDs / 17 INTs, 132.5 passer rating
• Brady Quinn 2005 (JR) - 13 starts, 3919 yards, 64.9% completion, 32 TDs / 7 INTs, 158.4 passer rating

Brady Quinn made a huge leap from his sophomore season to his junior season. Certainly his leap had to do with the coaching of Weis, in his first season in 2005 with the Irish. Experience at the offensive positions coincided with Brady's resurgence, particularly along the offensive line. The 2009 Irish offense is looking very similar to that 2005 offense entering the season - lots of returning starters and plenty of talent. By reading the other position previews, you know this. Can Jimmy make the same leap during his Jr year? Lets cut to the chase and give Jimmy some goals for this season:

• Jimmy Clausen 2009 (JR) - 13 starts, 3800 yards, 62.0% completion, 35 TDs / 10 INTs, 145.8 passer rating

These are reachable goals - make no doubt about it. Yes, Jimmy would have to throw 10 more TDs while throwing 7 less INTs, which is the biggest reach of these stats. However, 3800 yards and 62% completion are very reasonable given the schedule and Clausen's 2008 stats. If Jimmy produces at this clip, New Years Day bowl it is for the Irish.

Final Analysis - "We ready." Our QB is at the turning point of his career, with some talented weapons and experience at his disposal. The schedule is favorable, and the time is now. Unlike the BCS runs of 2001, 2005, and 2006, the Irish look ready to sustain the BCS-level success for a few years - not just a short lived burst. However, the future only happens if things get started on the right foot during the most critical stretch of the Irish schedule - the opening 3 games in September (Nevada, @Michigan, Michigan St). If things start out poorly, the pressure consumes the Irish and Charlie Weis gets fired, further delaying the rebuilding. In the Spring, Jimmy told the Sporting News, "Coach Weis won't get fired because of me." I believe him.