Never too early to go bowling . . .

The Irish defeated Washington State in San Antonio this past weekend, 40-14. A game that was never in question was a welcome relief to many Irish fans - especially the 50,000 or so in the Alamo Dome. San Antonio was an awesome trip - very similar to a mid season bowl game, with perfect weather, a great destination, and a neutral site atmosphere. Halloween made things a bit interesting as well (costumes - I was a Big 10 Official). 

After 8 games, the Irish sit at 6-2, in line with preseason predictions by many (including myself). The remaining 4 games are all losable games, certainly. Navy, @Pitt, UConn, @Stanford. The Irish will likely be favored in at least 3 of those games, but only more than slight favorites in the two home games (ND-11pts over Navy is this week's line). Forget whether Notre Dame "should" beat these teams - reality is that the Irish could very easily lose to any of these squads.

What's at stake for the Irish in these final 4 games? Without dismissing any of the final four opponents, lets take a look at what the final 4 games could mean for the bowl picture (based on a record during these final 4 games):. 

0-4     With a record of 6-6, the possibilities are actually the most complex. The Irish could go to any of the unfulfilled bowls (like the Hawaii Bowl last year), which is tough to predict. Likely the Irish would not be selectable under their current bowl game agreements (for 2009, the BCS, Cotton, Gator, and Sun Bowls - with Champs Sports entering the equation in 2010). Lets hope we're not revisiting this topic ever again. 

• Most Likely Bowl at this Record  =  Toilet Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of occurence = 5%

1-3     The Sun Bowl and Gator Bowl would be the possibilities here, with an overall record of 7-5. Each of the bowls can select a non-BCS bound Irish team once during the 4 seasons of 2006 thru 2009 (this is the last year, and the Irish are eligible, not having been to either bowl game). The Gator and Sun Bowl together have one agreement with the Big East, Big 12, and Notre Dame. While the Gator matches one team from the Big 12/Big East/Notre Dame pool against an ACC team, the Sun Bowl does the same against a Pac 10 team. The agreement stipulates that the Sun and Gator alternate between Big 12 and Big East selections, with each having the 1 time option of Notre Dame. Last year, the Gator selected a Big 12 team (Nebraska) while the Sun Bowl selected a Big East team (Pitt), meaning those conferences will be flip-flopped this year. That means the 2010 Gator Bowl must select a Big East team or Notre Dame, while the Sun Bowl must select Big 12 or Notre Dame (Gator Bowl always gets the first pick over the Sun Bowl, when applicable).

If Pittsburgh beats the Irish and does not go to the BCS, it would be hard for the Gator Bowl to turn down Big East #2 Pittsburgh (or 10-2 West Virginia) in favor of 7-5 Notre Dame. Simply put: if the Irish go 1-3 down the stretch, then the Irish likely head to the Sun Bowl, who would choose the Irish over a mid tier Big 12 team. Certainly there is a chance of a 7-5 Irish team getting the Gator Bowl nod over an 11-1 or 10-2 Pitt or West Virginia team; assuming the 7-5 Irish lose @Pitt, a Gator Bowl bid isn't likely.

• Most Likely Bowl at 1-3  =  Sun Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of occurrence of 1-3 down the stretch = 5%

2-2 or 3-1     The situation at 8-4 or better greatly improves the options for the Irish. The same players (Gator and Sun Bowls, described above) are also viable options here; but the major new player would be the Cotton Bowl, which typically matches up SEC vs Big 12. Notre Dame has an agreement for the 2006-2009 seasons (all bowl agreements are 4 years and all expire after this season, with new 4 year agreements taking place starting next season) to select Notre Dame 1 time during that 4 year span (ending this year), in lieu of the SEC team (meaning ND would play a Big 12 team, being selected instead of an 8-4 or 9-3 Auburn, Ole Miss, or South Carolina). 

At 8-4 or 9-3, its really Gator or Cotton, with a very slim chance of a Sun Bowl bid for a badly beaten 8-4 ND squad. I believe Notre Dame would be able to choose between competing offers from the Gator and Cotton (couldn't confirm). The Gator's advantage is that NBC televises the game; while the Cotton has the edge on tradition (Irish have played in the game 7 times since 1970), location (Texas, for recruiting), appeal (first Cotton Bowl or bowl game played in the Cowboys new stadium), and time (January 2nd at 2pm, not New Years Day at 1pm like the Gator). Look for the Irish to choose the Cotton Bowl over the Gator Bowl if given the opportunity. The likely Cotton Bowl opponent would be Oklahoma St/Oklahoma/Nebraska, whereas Gator would feature Virginia Tech or Miami. 

• Most Likely Bowl at 2-2 = Gator Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of Occurrence = 25%
• Most Likely Bowl at 3-1 down the stretch = Cotton Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of Occurrence = 40%   

4-0     BCS appears likely if the Irish win out, although we could fall back into the Gator or Cotton Bowl if a few things happen. After studying the BCS selection process, here are how the 10 spots (4 bowls plus National Championship game = 10 spots) break down:

• 6 spots go to conference champions (ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, Pac 10)
• 4 spots remain for any "automatic qualifiers" (assuming top 2 BCS spots are occupied by the 2 of the conference champions noted above), which include:
1. Non-BCS conference champion ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings**
2. Non-BCS conference champion ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS, yet ahead of a BCS conference champ in the standings**
3. Notre Dame if finishes in the top 8 of the BCS (not likely even if we win out)
4. BCS conference team thats not a conference champ, but #3 or #4 in the final BCS standings
• Any remaining spots are filled by "at large" teams, which must have 9 wins and be in the top 14 of the final BCS standings. No more than 2 teams from any given conference may appear in BCS games.  
• ** = One major caveat to #1 and #2 above - only 1 non-BCS automatic qualifier can occur each year. TCU and Boise St - while both likely to finish in the top 10 - are competing with each other for one automatic spot (likely TCU due to schedule strength). The loser goes into the pool for an "at-large" bid. 

This year, here is how the 10 BCS bids will likely play out if I had to guess:

• 6 Conference Champions  -  Florida (SEC), Texas (Big 12), Georgia Tech (ACC), Cinncinnati (Big East), Oregon (Pac 10), Iowa (Big 10). Florida and Texas are title game
• 2 Automatic Qualifiers  -  TCU & Alabama. A close loss to Florida would likely keep the Tide at #3 or #4 in BCS, meaning they would be automatic. 
• 2 "At Large" Qualifers  -  to be selected from any of the other teams in the top 14 left, with the SEC likely at their max and thus further SEC teams disqualified (LSU). Likely teams in this pool would be Penn. St, Ohio St, USC, West Virginia or Pitt, Virginia Tech, Boise St, Utah, and Notre Dame. The Irish would very likely get selected as 1 of the 2 among those teams, assuming the Irish get into the top 14 in the BCS Standings (likely, considering we sit at #22 now and would move up with a victory over #13 in the BCS standings, Pitt). 

So for 4-0, with a final record of 10-2, it looks like the Irish would be BCS bound. 

• Most Likely Bowl at 4-0 = Fiesta Bowl or Sugar Bowl (two bowls that would have lost conference champs to the BCS Title Game)
• Estimated % Chance of Occurrence = 25%

The bowl picture is much clearer than I expected for the Irish, considering how a third of the season remains. Now, its prediction time:

Preseason Prediction for the Irish:  9-3, Gator Bowl vs North Carlina

Current Prediction for the Irish:  9-3, Cotton Bowl vs Oklahoma

Either of these scenarios would be an acceptable and "solid but not great" season for the Irish. 

Checkback tomorrow for the Navy game preview. 

Defend the Irish Alamo!

In a kinda weird event, the Irish will face off against Washington State on Saturday evening in San Antonio, TX at the Alama Dome (6:30pm central, NBC). The Irish are favored by 28 points over the Cougars, who are ranked in the "1 hundred and teens" in every major defensive category. While the game lacks much appeal from a matchup standpoint, the appeal and success/failure of the neutral site home game will be interesting to evaluate. Unfortunately the opponent is not either a) local or b) attractive, so I imagine the results of "success" of this game will be a mixed bag.

This game is the first of the former AD Kevin White-inspired "7-4-1" schedule - with the 1 being a neutral, off site "home" game. Under the 7-4-1 scheduling technique, the Irish intend to schedule 1 game per year in a major media market - ideally one with a pro football team (facility) and no college teams (opportunity). Additionally, the Irish would definitely prefer to schedule these games in areas that would aid in recruiting.

San Antonio is a perfect site for recruiting, being located near the major markets of Houston and Dallas in Texas - the state that produced the most division 1-A football players last year. Amazingly, Texas is home to only 3 players currently on scholarship for the Irish. There are more players from Tennessee and North Carolina individually than from Texas. The reason? Mack Brown and the Texas Longhorns, who typically offer top juniors in February each year, demanding their verbal by threatening to revoke the offer if not immediately accepted. In addition to the strong Irish recruiting pipelines to talent rich California and Florida, the Irish must establish some recruiting presence in Texas. Three or four prospects a year would be respectable and expected given the talent level and volume of players in the state. This game is a great way to get some exposure in the Longhorn state, as Notre Dame is allowed to invite as many high school players as possible to the game; a good number of talented juniors (class of 2011) will be on hand Saturday night.

Now, on to the game. I'm not going to spend a lot of time previewing the particulars of the game. Here are a few stats for you about the Cougars:

• Defense rankings (out of 120 Div 1-A nationally) - Rush defense (114th), Pass defense (118th), Total Defense (118th). 
• Offense rankings  -  Rushing offense (116th), Passing Offense (55th), Total Offense (111th)
• Passing offense looks decent right? But when its paired with the worst (120th) pass protection in the nation (5 sacks per game), that means two things: a) the freshman QB Lobberstael can pass a little bit, especially considering his numbers with that offensive line; and b) the Irish blitzing front is going to have some big time opportunities for a few big plays. 
• Washington St's only win this season (1-6) was against SMU at home - which they won 30-27 in OT.
• The Cougars scored 20 or more only twice, with the 30 against SMU and 20 against Hawaii. 

Washington State probably thinks they can beat Notre Dame, and I don't blame anyone for thinking they can win. Bottom line is that they can't. The Irish are far too talented not to score 30 points against Wazzu, while the Cougs will be lucky to get 20 points.  Look for the Irish to use this game to work on and improve the running game that will be key down the stretch. Charlie mentioned he is taking twice the number of offensive lineman on the trip, and I expect him to use them all. The game is never in doubt - for once - but the Cougars add a late score against the 2nd team defense to cover the spread.

Prediction:

Notre Dame  38    Washington St  17

(Vatican Smoke is 5-2 picking winners straight up, but 3-4 against the spread)


Prediction #2  -  See you on the Riverwalk!!

Streak Ended; Questions Remain

The Irish stopped the 6 game losing streak to the Boston College Eagles on Saturday, winning 20-16 in a game that once again went down to the wire. A Brian Smith interception in the final minute sealed the game for the Irish  in what was their 5th straight game decided in the final minute. You can find the full game stats here - and of course there were a few interesting items:

• Rushing Defense  -  The Irish outrushed BC 106 to 70 yards. The Irish held Montel Harris to 1.7 yds per carry, which was a very solid effort by the Irish front 7. The Irish improvement against the run could be construed as having been the result of more passing - which isn't entirely true. BC had 29 carries, which is near the season average # of rushing attempts by Irish opponents this season (35). Likely #5 has something to do with the improvement against the run. 
• Rushing Offense  -  Armando Allen had another solid game, with 98 yards and 4.7 ypc. With BC employing a prevent style defense, the Irish are going to have to make teams pay for this approach by pounding them on the ground for more than just 100 yards. Weis remains undefeated when he wins the rushing yards battle. 
• Passing Offense -  Clausen had an efficient day for 246 yards and no interceptions; the only 2 TDs scored by the Irish were connections between Clausen and Tate. BC played a near prevent defense, forcing the Irish to use short outside routes repeatedly. Credit to Clausen for remaining patient and taking what BC was giving him. A few more short passes to Armando or Rudolph in the middle would have been nice. The only strike against he passing offense, besides the 1st qtr safety, is the inability to score in the Red Zone. More on that later . . .
• Passing Defense - BC's quarterback Dave Shinskie had a career day, passing for 280 yards and a touchdown. His 3 interceptions were the difference in the game - but unfortunately not as much of a difference as the Irish should have reaped from the mistakes. The Irish were opportunistic but still gave up too many plays of 20+ yards (10 plays total). Personnel moves hopefully will help slowdown the opposing pass offenses.
• Special Teams  -   The Eagles won the special teams battle, particularly in the punting department. BC punted 5 times at an average of 42 yards per; the Irish punted 6 times for only 32 yards per punt. BC pinned the Irish back inside the 20 numerous times, while the Irish were unable to return the favor to BC but one time. ND's Nick Tausch made both field goals attempted, continuing his streak to 12 straight field goals made - just 1 short of the Notre Dame record of 13. BC did not attempt any field goals, and kickoff coverage was comparable for both teams. 

A few positive observations and opinions after re-watching the game and looking at the stat sheet:

• Weakside linebacker Manti Te'o led the Irish yet again in tackles with 9 on the game. Both Te'o and Brian Smith are improving - and their play has been one of the major factors stabilizing the Irish run defense. Now about that Irish secondary . . .
• Lineup changes in the secondary were the first major changes in the back 4 all season - and should have come sooner. Former free safety Harrison Smith appears to be moving back to linebacker/safety hybrid, while former Nickelback Sergio Brown will have a go at manning the Free Safety spot. Jamoris Slaughter also got a few reps at free safety, a likely candidate to start next season at FS. Harrison Smith is not a dynamic playmaker in space at Safety - he struggles in coverage and just needs to be in less space near the line of scrimmage. Jamoris Slaughter is a true sophomore that is more athletic and much better in coverage (plays cornerback as well). If he can learn the position fast enough, likely he makes more sense at free safety.
• Yes, the turnover battle was won by the Irish 5-0 - but when your margin of victory (4 pts) is less than a significant turnover advantage, clearly we weren't cashing in on these opportunities. If you were to tell me that the Irish would win the turnover battle by 5 and limit BC's ground attack, I would have bet my life savings on the Irish to win big. Amazingly they did not. I suspect the reason is Red Zone offense, discussed below. 

Yet significant questions remain for the Irish. In particular, there are two issues that appear to be the most glaring roadblocks to a 9 or 10 win season: pass defense and red zone offense.

Pass Defense  -  Clearly the pass defense remains the obvious, major issue for the Irish defense. Its never good when the Irish defense continue to be a launching pad for National QB of the Week mentions for our opponents. I do think the run defense will help the pass defense - ideally putting teams in more clear passing situations, helping prepare our secondary for the pass a bit more. Then again  -  we aren't stopping teams on 3rd and long anyway. The personnel on the field in pass coverage are inconsistent, typically making mental coverage errors more often than physical errors (just getting beat).

What's the answer? Maybe I am in denial, but I still refuse to believe we don't have solid talent in the secondary. The general common factor during the pass coverage breakdowns - in general, not every play - appears to be too much cushion. Whereas many might assume the opposition is hitting deep passes over the top of the secondary (like the days of Clifford Jefferson), most plays have been in front of the safeties. Lets try moving our DBs closer to the receivers and let them cover. Bring the safeties down a little bit more, particularly in the middle of the field.

Red Zone Offense  -  The Irish are letting inferior opponents stay in the game longer when the Irish settle for field goals. Washington and BC are prime examples - games where the Irish racked up meaningless yardage on offense - only to get a field goal or a late penalty to thwart the drive. The Irish have scored 25 of their 29 trips to the Red Zone this season - but only 16 TDs in those 29 entries. Against BC, the Irish scored just 1 TD in their 4 red zone appearances, settling for 2 field goals and a turnover at the goal line; against Washington, the Irish had 2 TDs in 6 entries to the RZ, with 4 FGs. Getting TD's on 50% of the red zone chances - which is what the Irish have for the season - needs to be the goal each week. That goal being achieved against Washington and BC would have made the wins much less difficult.

What's the answer? Run the football. Teams around College and the NFL are employing a "Cover 4" scheme where they essentially drop 6 or 7 guys into a zone coverage. Since the space is less, there are fewer holes in the zone. This defense is tough to pass against - so we must strike at the weakness of this scheme: runs up the middle. Anytime linebackers and safeties are on their heels a bit, expecting the pass, the Irish offensive line needs to dominate and Charlie needs to trust them. Teams are not going to give up easy chances for TDs to Jimmy - so we must make them pay on the ground. Armando is running at 4.9ypc, so lets let him do his thing.

Bottom line: The Irish are on pace for a 9 or 10 win season, but have at least 3 more games they can lose easily (@Pittsburgh, vs UConn, @Stanford) if they dont correct their pass defense and red zone offensive issues. The emphasis on the red zone is so important with a pass defense like we have. Certainly the Irish should handily win the next two games against Washington State (in San Antonio) and Navy - which could put the Irish at 7-2 facing a likely 8-1 Pittsburgh team on the road in a few weeks. Hopefully the Irish can use these two weeks to get some comfortable wins and work on fixing these issues.

Breaking the Other Streak . . .

While the Trojans win streak over the Irish (currently at 8 games) is more publicized, the Boston College streak is more painful; the Eagles have beaten the Irish an astounding and embarrassing 6 times in a row. Long considered the inferior Catholic school in all ways, Boston College has consistently played extremely well against the Irish, while the Irish arrive flat and uninspired. This matchup could be the perfect case of "a big game for them but not as much us"; nonetheless, the Irish have a Michigan St like streak that needs to be ended tomorrow at 2:30pm central time in Notre Dame Stadium (weather is highs in the mid 40s, very cloud, 40% chance of rain).

Boston College is a weird team this year. Well played games at home (28-21 over Florida St, 53-20 over NC State, 27-24 over Wake Forrest) with some terrible results on the road (loss 14-48 @ VTech and loss 7-25 @ Clemson) make the picture a bit murky. Certainly expect the Eagles to play well in Notre Dame Stadium, as they are quite comfortable there, winning 4 of their last 5 games in South Bend. Clearly the Boston College players and media treat this game almost like a bowl game - putting the Irish in a tough game every year.

BC is a strong rushing team, with a streaky QB. Last week, the Eagles rushed for 260 yards - 150 of which were via the "Wildcat" formation. The Irish are much improved against the run, holding the vaunted Trojans rushing offense to just 120 yards. Lots of that ground improvement has been at the expense of the passing defense. The Irish have demoted Free Safety Harrison Smith (#22 - Knoxville, TN) and have shaken things  up in the secondary. The unit is talented, and eventually just has to play better. Things in the back 4 can't get much worse, and I don't expect this BC passing attack to expedite that.

This game feels like another trap game for the Irish. Notre Dame consistently plays down to BC and Michigan St, largely because they are not one of the 2 or 3 marquee opponents on the schedule. The week after USC will certainly be a less intense and hyped atmosphere - a situation that will reveal the true character of this team.

To me, the true "character" of this team is fighting to the end - for which no lead is safe, and no deficit is either; unfortunately for my heart rate, I see another thriller coming - game decided late in the 4th quarter:

Notre Dame    42     Boston College  35

(Vatican Smoke is 4-2 predicting winners, 2-4 against the spread)

One Eagle we can all root for . . .

Instead of breaking down the USC game stats or previewing the Boston College game this week - I thought this article about Coach Weis and his relationship with BC linebacker Mark Herzlich was worth mentioning. Mark was ACC defensive player of the year last year - yet is undergoing treatment for cancer. Charlie sought out Mark, and the two have a relationship that has been important to Mark during his season sitting out, fighting the crippling disease. Definitely worth the read.

Charlie Weis off the football field was initially viewed as an arrogant, pompous wise-ass. Losing the past few years has indirectly softened the image of Coach Weis - who was humbled and forced to seriously change his public perception in order to keep his job. Weis has always loved his family, Notre Dame, and his friends - and generally been a very good person. Articles like this do not surprise me one bit, and truly show a genuine Charlie Weis. Yet articles like this, until recently, have been the exception and not the norm - as Notre Dame haters preferred the obnoxious and arrogant Weis. Good to see articles like this one about Coach Weis - who has my respect as being a good father, Notre Dame alum, and man.

All of this aside, Notre Dame did not hire Weis to be only a good person. Nor did Notre Dame hire Charlie just to keep players out of trouble (which he has), or to fully focus on academics in the football program (3.0 team average every semester). Notre Dame demands excellence both on and off the field - and 2 outta 3, whichever one is missing, won't cut it. Charlie has shown brilliance off the field, on the whole - and that deserves credit. Yet the only short and unsustained flashes of success on the field could eventually catch up to Weis. While the USC loss in Charlie's 5th season was a potential harbinger of his demise, the story of the USC loss is not yet finished (as I wrote in my previous post). The final 6 games will tell whether Charlie will be back next year. Here's rooting for you Charlie.