The Cardinals just lost 20-2. I'm on vacation - but hearing a score like that makes me feel like I'm in another universe. Please Lord, let the Cubs lose once, please.

Elliot Pope 901-848-5599
elliotpope@gmail.com

Grizz Draft Update

There has been a lot of talk and rumors surrounding the top few draft picks in the NBA draft in about two weeks. Players are starting to work out individually with teams, so there are more people watching these guys and then speculating. Here is what has been going on regarding the Grizzlies pick at #5:

• Trade talk to move up to #2 with Miami for Michael Beasley. This has been rumored in numerous reports, such as here and here. All of the rumors and reports are based on the following expectations: a) The Heat don't really love Beasley and b) The Heat like OJ Mayo. They recognize Beasley is the value pick at #2, since they will likely miss out on their prize talent, Derrick Rose. They could look to draft Beasley and trade down, likely only if they can get OJ Mayo, whom many think would fit nicely with Dwayne Wade as a combo guard. The teams picking at #3 and #4 (Minnesota & Seattle) don't really have pieces to trade, however. The team at #5 does have some tradeable pieces, as well as a desperate need for a power forward like Beasley - the Grizzlies. Mike Miller and Javaris Crittenton or Kyle Lowery, along with swapping picks, has been one trade scenario. Genius Geoff Calkins even wrote about this scenario as if he thought it up. There is also talk from Iavaroni and Wallace that seems to indicate Mike Miller is not tradeable. My take is where there's smoke, there's fire. If there is a trade, we won't know until during the draft, once the Grizzlies pick comes available. The Heat don't do this deal unless they know OJ Mayo is available at #5. So for our best interest (whether we want him or not), the Grizz should root for the Timberwolves to draft Brook Lopez, and Seattle to draft Jerryed Bayless ahead of the Grizz, leaving OJ Mayo available at #5. A trade with Miami would be awesome for the Grizz, even if we lost Mike Miller and Lowry/Crittenton, because it would give us a young power forward that I think is special, in Michael Beasley.


• Kevin Love speculation. Kevin Love worked out for the Grizz on Monday of this week, and reportedly performed well. In the most recent mock draft on ESPN, our dream trade with Miami is foiled as OJ Mayo is selected to be drafted by Minnesota at #3, leaving the Grizz to draft Kevin Love at #5. Its very in vogue to hate on Kevin Love, because he is an undersized power forward that is not very athletic, and because Memphis beat him up pretty good in the final four. However, Love can shoot better than any big man in the draft in probably 4 or 5 years. He is young, apparently with a high basketball IQ that allows him to pass exceptionally well, and even play solid defense. That being said, I don't think it would excite too many Grizz fans to draft Love. Here is my revised order of who I would like to draft at #5, assuming that we are not going to trade the pick, and that Rose & Beasley are off the board:
  
  
  
  
  
  Obviously, the Grizz need a force at power forward that won't be there with Beasley gone. Next need for me is a dynamic scorer that can shoot and play opposite Rudy Gay. With Beasley gone, I think Mayo or Gordon could fulfill that role. Gordon tested out fantastically in Orlando at the Draft Camp on the physical skills/measurements [check out this link - its a sortable stat list based on all the measurements of draftees - height, weight, wingspan, 3/4 court sprint, vertical, etc - really interesting] , and lets not forget before his injury late in the season, he was considered a top 3 pick at worst. Gordon slid late in the year as things slid at Indiana, so I'm betting on him performing like he did early in the year and in high school. After those two, I think Kevin Love is the safest option. Why? He can shoot the 3, as well as the mid range jumper, which combined with his size, passing ability, and basketball IQ, could make him a very (very) poor man's Dirk Nowitzki. Not just because he is big and white, but I think he can create offense just by stretching the big men on defense, and then making well timed passes or shots. If we don't get Mayo, Gordon, Love, or (hopefully) Beasley in a trade, then I will be officially disappointed. This wish list has changed a bit since my first one, but that's because there is more information available to non-front office folk like myself.


• Heisley expressing doubt about the Pau trade. Many referenced this article in which Mike Heisley, team owner, expresses some doubt about whether the Gasol trade was the right move. Much has been written about his comments, and his later clarification. Wallace also defended the trade in the Boston Newspaper. The only thing you need to read is my previous post, detailing the trade, and calling for judgement on the merits of the trade at a later date. We'll see in a few years.


• Dorsey also looked good in the workout with Kevin Love, as mentioned in the article above(also linked here). Wouldn't that be fun for Memphians to get Joey Dorsey, assuming our draft board worked out to where he was not a reach with our pick at #28? He would give some good minutes in the paint off the bench, and could be a sparkplug-defender specialist (yes I just invented that term).

We'll see how the next week of workouts and speculation goes. Any trades won't occur until during the draft, once picks have been revealed. I think there may be a trade with Miami, but only if OJ Mayo is available for the Grizz to draft at #5. So if you are unsure what to root for in the upcoming draft in 2 weeks, root that OJ Mayo is available for either our team or a trade.

Cardinals Tidbits

The Cardinals sit at 38-27, second place (2.5 games back) in the NL Central to the Cubs, who sit at 40-24, tops in the MLB. The Cardinals record also puts them tied for the 6th best record in all of baseball. Not a bad start at all. Some Cardinals tidbits for ya:

• The Cardinals had some transactional movement in the past week, calling up young Joe Mather (pictured) from Memphis (AAA), and sending down slugger Chris Duncan, a fixture for the Cardinals since late 2006. Mather had been batting over .300 with some power at Memphis, and seems to be ready at 25 years of age. Duncan initially provided some much needed pop to the lineup starting in late 2006, hitting 22 and 21 HRs in '06 and '07. However, his inability to be effective against lefties, combined with his sluggish outfield play and very long slump to start 2008, made this move inevitable. Last week, in a dramatic loss to the Nationals, Mather hit his first career home run, breaking up a tie in the 10th inning. Unfortunately his was a solo blast, and we gave up a 2 run shot to end the game. Speaking of that game, the Cards also pitched new callup Mark Worrell (also from Memphis) for 2 innings. Not only did he pitch two scoreless, but in his first big league at bat, he hit a 3-run HR. Great start for the two Redbirds I watched in person two weeks ago.



• Todd Wellemeyer continues to impress, winning National League Pitcher of the Month for May. As you can see in the article, homeboy was 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA in May - not bad. Nicknamed "the Colonel", Todd has been the most consistent pitcher of late. It will take a long season of consistent production from pitchers like Todd for the Cardinals to make any noise in the playoffs.



• Injury bug has officially struck. Just as soon as Wellemeyer wins the player of the month award, he has a sore elbow and misses a start. Pujols has a calf injury that has sidelined him a bit, while Ankiel has missed some time with a sore knee. To top it all off, our #1 starter Adam Wainwright was put on the DL this week with a sprained finger. Hopefully Wellemeyer can come back this week and pitch, although that's up in the air. The guys over at Viva le Birdos (Cardinals blog) think that Wellemeyer's just being in his second year as a starter is a major part of his injury. They seem to question whether he can keep logging starter innings without the experience of doing it healthy for a full season.



• MLB Draft was last week - Cardinals selected Arizona St 3B Brett Wallace, a pure power hitter. Overall the Cardinals used 51 draft picks (!) to take 27 pitchers and 24 position players. Good recap of it here. Many think the draft is not as big a deal, but they are wrong. Teams like the Devil Rays are a perfect example. At the minimum, you need young talent to make trades in baseball. But also you need homegrown talent brought up for cheap $$ through your farm system. Remember, a player's first 6 years in professional baseball, they are essentially at the mercy of the team. If those guys develop in 2 or 3 years, then you have some cheap talent on the big league club for a 3 years or so. I'm hoping we can get some young infielders especially, as well as more power bats, to develop through our farm system. Our top pick satisfied both, so hopefully we'll see Wallace in a few short years.

These next two weeks will be interesting for the Cardinals, and will largely reveal if they are in fact "for real". Many skeptics out there doubt the Cardinals due to the lack of power in their bats, as well as starting pitching that many think has over performed. The Cards are at Cincinnati for 3, then back home to face the 1st place Phillies and cross state rival the Royals. Hopefully the Cardinals can keep their pace of winning at least 2 games in their last 7 series.

Looking way way ahead, the Cardinals have two series with the Cubs in the first week and a half of September. I imagine that will be when the division winner is finally settled. At least I hope we can hang with the Cubs until then. Likely we will, largely because the Cubs just cant keep winning at this pace, especially with a tough road and inter league schedule coming up.

Passing Optimism

In yesterday's post about Jeff Fisher's offenses during his Titans tenure, I concluded that Jeff Fisher teams do not need to be anything but average in the passing game to succeed. After finishing 27th in the league in passing offense, many expected the Titans to make a big splash and sign a free agent or draft a WR with a high pick in the draft. The Titans did neither, but definitely have made some changes that will affect the passing game.

1. Mike Heimerdinger - new offensive coordinator. After being the offensive coordinator for the Titans from 2000-2004, Mike left to take the same role with the New York Jets in 2005, joining a sinking ship in Herman Edwards last season. For 2006-2007, he was offensive coordinator in Denver with his college roommate Mike Shanahan. When the Titans fired Norm Chow after last season, Heimerdinger was the only candidate they discussed, hiring him within 3 days of Chow's departure. During his first stint as Titans O'Coordinator, the Titans offense never finished below 15th in the league in total points. During this time, Steve McNair went from good to great, eventually claiming MVP of the NFL in 2003. The Titans made the playoffs 3 of the 5 years he was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee. Look for Heimerdinger to use Vince Young's legs more, to use more shotgun sets (all VY did at Texas was shotgun),



2. Wide Receiver personnel moves. Yes, there were a few. The Titans signed former Titan Justin McCareins, who played the last 4 seasons for the New York Jets. His best year with the Titans was 2003, when he snagged 47 receptions for 800 yards and 7 TDs in McNair's MVP year. He had a similar year in 2004 with the Jets, but then diminished each of the next 3 seasons before being cut. The Titans signed him to a 1 year deal, and are hoping his experience, particularly as a slot WR, will help VY and the other WRs improve. Additionally, the Titans re-signed their leading wideout from 2007, Justin Gage (pictured). The 6 foot 4 Gage had a big year with 55 catches in 2007, very impressive considering the Titans passing offense was 27th in the league. Gage is a tall guy with very good hands and route running skills, certainly entering his prime. If McCareins can be a steadying go to guy in the slot, allowing Gage to go deep a bit more, the Titans will definitely be tougher to contend with from the WR spot. Here is how the WR depth chart looks right now, best guess:
   












Definitely some optimism right now in Titans mini-camps, as well as on former top 10 pick Mike Williams from USC. Mike Williams has been criticized for a lack of work ethic, as well as being overweight. Supposedly he is "recommitted" and has lost weight - we'll see (he went to USC). If Williams can contribute while the other young WRs keep maturing, we could definitely see a big jump in production even though our WR core is unchanged. Granted, some websites only think the Titans have 1 WR in the top 50 in the NFL (Roydell Williams at #47).









3. Expanded backfield - The Titans now have a stable of Running Backs, each with different skill sets. On first glance, we have the "track stars", rookie Chris Johnson (in 2008 combine ran a 4.24 40 yard dash) and 2nd year player Chris Henry (ran a 4.33 40 yard dash at 2007 combine). Then there's the proverbial "thunder" of Titans leading rusher Lendale White. As a rookie, Chris Henry only played in 7 games, due in part to a 4 game drug suspension for marijuana use. Hopefully reefer boy sees the competition around him and will respond. He has size (6 foot 2, 230 pounds) and speed, and has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield (6 catches in minimal action last year). Expect improvement for the 2nd year player out of Arizona. As for Chris Johnson, first thing you see is speed. Undersized at 5 foot 11, 200 pounds, this cat had quite the productive career at East Carolina. He averaged 37 receptions a year in college, as well as a stout 4.5 yards per carry. He was great in the return game also, versatility that will make him immediately helpful to the Titans. Lendale White had a solid year in 2007, leading the team in carries (304) and yards (1110). ESPN did a top 20 RB ranking for the NFL, and the 23 year old Lendale didn't crack it, despite finishing 12th in the league in rushing in 2007. An improving running game should open up the passing game for Vince and the Titans. Look for Heimerdinger to use more dual back sets, more shotgun looks for Vince, and more short passing plays specifically for running backs.

Of course, the single biggest factor to offensive improvement is Vince Young. Production fell way off for Vince in '07, after a Pro Bowl (alternate) year and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2006. Many say this decline was simply defenses catching up to Vince's game. Certainly that had a part to do with it. Norm Chow, the former offensive coordinator, is known for running his west coast offense without regard to a skilled, mobile QB like Vince. Word is their relationship was not the best, as it was well known that Chow wanted the Titans to draft Matt Leinart instead of Vince Young at #3 in the 2006 NFL draft.

Hopefully the guidance of the experienced and fresh offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, as well as general maturation of Vince Young and the Titans WR/RB core, will all combine to improve the Titans offense. Look for a very solid season by Vince Young and the Titans, particulary in the passing game.

Fisher-Ball

(spreadsheets mentioned in post may not be viewable in email or RSS versions of this post - click the link in those spots, or view the blog site by clicking on the header picture in the email / RSS feed)

Sounds like Vegas money is against the Titans making another playoff appearance in 2008, with odds as the #19 team most likely to win the Super Bowl. Coming off a 10-6 season in 2007, earning a spot as a wild card in the playoffs, many think the young core of the Titans will only improve. Obviously not Vegas.

Most that doubt the Titans point to most glaring weakness on the team - passing offense. Vince Young had a subpar year certainly in 2007. The most surprising thing to many is that the Titans haven't seemed to try and upgrade their passing offense, particularly wide receivers. Despite having a passing offense that finished 27th overall in the league in 2007, the Titans signed no big names at wide out, and did not draft any WRs in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft. Why? Jeff Fisher has shown throughout his career that he doesn't need a top flight passing game or elite WRs to win in the NFL.

Some quick Jeff Fisher facts:

• Born in LA; played college ball for USC (not everyone is perfect)


• Played as a Defensive Back in the NFL, mostly a special teamer


• Background is defense, most of which was learned under Buddy Ryan, whom he played for and coached under


• Named to first head coaching job during the 1994 season, as coach of the Houston Oilers


• Still coach of the same franchise, entering his 14th season (longest tenured coach in NFL, 2nd longest in American pro sports, I believe to only Jerry Sloan of the Utah Jazz [1988])

Jeff Fisher's best teams were defensively strong teams. He's also had some good offensive teams, particularly with Steve McNair at the helm. Here are the seasons that Jeff Fisher's Titans made the playoffs, along with some defensive and passing stats (league ranks based on yards):

The 1999 team went to the Super Bowl, the famous "Music City Miracle" year. The 2000 team was easily the best team Fisher had, tops in the league in defense. Unfortunately that team lost to the Ravens in an ugly playoff game, despite being arguably the league's top team that year. 2002 ended with a lopsided loss in the AFC Championship to the Raiders, and 2003 was a close loss in the divisional round to the Patriots. In 2007, the Chargers sent us packing quickly. So in ranking these teams, I would put them in order of best to worst like this: 2000, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2007.

The common trait on good Jeff Fisher teams is easy to point out - they play defense, and have balance on offense. The passing game doesn't need to be great for Jeff Fisher to have a playoff team. Fisher teams have finished in the top 10 in the league in passing only 3 times (2001, 2003, and 2005). Only 1 of those teams - the 2003 team - went to the playoffs. That year Steve McNair won the MVP of the League, and you can tell that the running game was secondary.

Talk about a telling stat here in the spreadsheet below. Yes, you can argue against the use of attempts as a justifying stat, especially given the late game offense of winning teams being to run the ball. But this is interesting (league ranks):

Maybe this is why the Titans used their first round draft pick to take a RB in 2008 (Chris Johnson), after taking a running back in the 2nd round in both 2006 (Lendale White) and 2007 (Chris Henry). Jeff Fisher knows that running the ball and defense are more important factors to the Titans' winning than passing offense is.

The passing game issues need to be addressed, as 27th in the league just won't cut it. But improving from 27th to 15th (where I think the Titans can really do some damage if the running game and defense remain steady) is not such a leap as many pundits think it is. The next post tomorrow will have a profile of the Titans WR core, which I think will be much improved. I think you'll be surprised this next season at how much production the Titans get from the 11 WRs currently on the roster.