Pitt Preview

The Irish travel to #8 ranked Pittsburgh Saturday night (7pm, ABC) in what could be the most important game of Charlie Weis's career. The Pitt Panthers are 8-1 and have control of their own destiny in the Big East conference. Pitt is very talented and will be one of the if not the best team the Irish have faced all season. Yours truly will be on hand for the game at Heinz Field, which should be around 40 degrees at gametime.

Due to traveling, not much time available for a preview. During the week reading about Pitt, it sounds like this program is really confident and ready for the Irish. The Irish are either going to be inspired or scared, and I'm not sure which. Jimmy and company should be able to move the ball a bit on the Panthers, who have a great defensive line that is near tops in the country in sacks. Pitt has been efficient offensively, balanced with the pass and the run. This has the feel of a shootout in the 30s, a close game won by the team who gets the ball last. Turnovers will obviously be key - an area the Irish have performed well in every game except last week. I expect the Irish defense and defensive line in particular to thrive upon facing a pro style offensive attack instead of the option attack.

Flat out, this has the makings of being a great football game. I expect the Irish to play one of their better games of the year, but the game to still be close and in doubt. I have to give the edge because their front 4 should be able to rush Clausen  -  allowing more defenders to drop back into coverage. The home crowd and tension building under the Weis coaching situation will also favor the Panthers; a superhuman effort from Jimmy Clausen might not be enough. Prediction:

Pitt    34     Notre Dame  31

(Vatican Smoke is 6-3 picking ND games straight up, and 5-4 against the spread)

Much Maligned

Charlie Weis has been under fire the past three years as coach of the Irish. But after last week's loss to Navy, most people feel that his fate is clearly in his hands. There was doubt and wild amounts of speculation and uncertainty toward the end of each season, with the prevailing logic that Notre Dame would retain Weis. Now, the prevailing logic is that Weis will be fired. More than ever before, Weis's job security lies in wins and losses in the coming weeks. Here is how I think it will play out with 3 games remaining (@Pitt, vs UConn, @Stanford).

If Weis wins all 3 remaining games . . . He stays. 9-3 record with a Gator or Cotton Bowl bid, as well as 3 losses by a combined 12 points, please - this is a solid season and the 2nd straight year of a 3 game improvement in the win column. Recruiting stays strong, and next year the Irish should be a solid bet to win 9 or likely more games and get to the BCS.

If Weis wins just 1 game, or loses all 3 . . . He's gone. 7-5 or 6-6 is just not going to survive. My argument below about how to handle an 8-4 Weis could be applied here, but very likely he has to go with a record of 7-5 or worse. Unless his buyout is much worse than we expect, and no one worth a damn will coach the Irish, he's gone.

If Weis wins 2 of 3 . . . Tough decision. If the one loss was another close loss to a good team like Pitt or Stanford, that would give Weis an 8-4 record with 4 losses by 20 points (or so) total, which isn't terrible (Gator Bowl bid likely). Given the buyout of 5 remaining years on Weis's contract, this could be a very tough decision to make. How do we make it? Fire Weis only if we are sure that we have a top line coach ready to accept the job. If one of the following coaches is not available or none of them are remotely interested in the ND job, keep Weis; if one of the below is available and interested, fire him:

Brian Kelly (Head Coach of Cincinnati)

Jon Gruden (Former Tampa Bay Bucs head coach)

Urban Meyer (Florida Coach)

Bob Stoops (Oklahoma  Coach)

At 8-4, without one of those guys, I say keep Weis, giving the recruiting another year to grow. Why take a chance on a lesser candidate, when Weis is clearly recruiting well enough to be competitive, and just might turn the corner with time? ND doesnt have tons of time to give to Weis to develop as a coach, but given his buyout and the lack of certainty with other coaching alternatives, I think keeping/firing Weis based on the above is a smart move.

If another coach comes in and wins, Charlie will be remembered as a coach who loved his alma matre, and worked his but off to recruit and coach as best he could. He will be the guy who got us 75% of the way there, but couldn't finish the job. 75% of college football is recruiting, and Coach Weis proved that Notre Dame can recruit elite athletes and get #1 recruiting classes yet again. The next coach will have a better program than the one Charlie inherited - a program that can attain talent but needs the final ingredient to make talent better than the sum of the parts. I am rooting for Charlie Weis, but if he has to go, he has to go. Tomorrow is a big step.

Living on the Edge

The Irish have been living on the edge all season, and they fell yet again towards mediocrity against a very capable Navy Midshipmen team, 23-21. While Jimmy Clausen (72% completion, 454 yards passing), Golden Tate (9 catches, 132 yards), and Michael Floyd (10 catches, 141 yards) all had great days, two turnovers inside the 3 yard line and 2 missed field goals doomed the Irish. A few other key stats:

• Navy had 402 yards total offense . . . including 350 of those on the ground. 
• Navy's fullback position had 200 yards (!) of the total 350 yard rushing day for the Middies
• Navy's passing game was used 3 times for 2 completions totalling 50 yards and 1 touchdown
• Notre Dame had 512 yards total offense
• Notre Dame was 2/6 scoring in the red zone, with 2 turnovers and 2 missed field goals. Score on one of those and the game is ours

That last bullet point really says it all  -  the Irish left 12 points on the field, at a minimum. And 12 points is assuming just 4 field goals, even though likely we'd have scored a TD or two in those 4 missed red zone chances. 

After the game, I was a part of a painful yet interesting debate between myself and my future father/brother in law, trying to determine who was at fault more, the Irish offense or the Irish defense. Of course the correct answer is both. Early in the season, the Irish defense was more at fault, giving the Irish offense zero margin for error. More recently, the Irish offense has sputtered in the red zone, using up even more of the razor thin margin for error delivered by a still inconsistent defense. Saturday, the sum of the two units' performances just wasn't enough. Each side has major issues (Offense - red zone offense, turnovers; Defense - fullbacks running wild for 200 yards (!!) ) - and it's pointless to debate which is the worst. No Notre Dame team can survive a full season with even 1 of these issues lingering, and quite frankly, we are lucky to be 6-3 right now. Saturday we just came up a play short - just like Washington and Boston College did against the Irish. 

Moving on - to use a page out of Lou Holtz's book  -  W.I.N. - "whats important now". For the Irish, W.I.N. is winning at least 2 of the final 3 games, heading to a New Years Day bowl (likely Gator - check my bowl game scenarios post from last week) and trying to keep the Charlie Weis era going. Win 0 or just 1 game of the final 3, and the Irish are looking for a new coach, seeing a slew of transfers, and losing a slew more of recruits. Also, Golden Tate and Jimmy Clausen would most certainly be gone to the NFL early, doubly feeling the loss of Coach Weis. Win all 3 games, and Weis is back on the "warm to lukewarm" coaching seat, just off the current "hot" seat. Simple directions, hard road, with @Pittsburgh (#8 in the country), vs UConn at home, and @Stanford (thrashed Oregon 51-42) remaining. 

Check back for more VaticanSmoke during the middle of the week - I'll explain why I think an 8-4 or 9-3 season, even now, is very possibly not enough to justify the firing of Charlie Weis. 

Pass the Alka-Selzer

Navy and Notre Dame meet for the 83rd time this Saturday at 1:30pm central time in Notre Dame Stadium. The Irish hold the all time record over the middies at 71-10-1, although the streak of 43 straight wins was snapped in 2007. Navy enters the game off a difficult loss last week to Temple (27-24), but still sports the same record as the Irish (6-2).

Game preview this week will be a little bit different than the "what to watch for". Navy and Notre Dame know each other very well, and typically don't surprise each other. Each year, many Irish fans have a little bit of anxiety about this game (at least I do). There are plenty of reasons Navy will be competitive and could beat us, while there are also plenty of reasons this game shouldn't be close. Both sides are compelling. Lets take a look at each:

Reasons Navy could win . . . 

• 2007 & 2008  -  The Middies beat the Irish in 2007, 46-44 (OT), the last time they played in Notre Dame Stadium. While the Irish were favored to win that game, Navy featured one of its best offenses ever that season, while the 2007 Irish were possibly the worst Irish team in 50 years. Navy knows they can beat Notre Dame . . . which they almost did last year, having the ball in the final minute in Irish territory down by 6.
• Defense  -  The 2009 Navy Defense is the best defense the Middies have had in years. Currently ranked #27 in the country in defensive yards allowed (ahead of Boston College, USC, and Virginia Tech), allowing only 316 yards per game. Navy is balanced but better against the pass, ranking 23rd in the country by air, 59th in defending by ground. Last year the Irish pounded the Middies, who will undoubtedly employ a bend but not break approach against the Irish passing attack. Problem is that with both teams running the ball, the game shortens, and mistakes are amplified . . . 
• Time of Possession  -  Navy is 2nd in the country in time of possession, while the Irish are a very close 5th in the country in TOP. This will be an interesting battle for the clock. If the Middies can win the time of possession, look for this game to be close. Win the TOP, throw in a fumble and some onside kicks . . . and its 2008 all over again. Navy will be more disciplined than you at all times, and will be ready for your mistake. 

Reasons Notre Dame cruises to victory . . . 

• 2007 & 2008  -  Same reason helping both teams? In 2007, Navy's offense was prolific, averaging 350 yards a game rushing; yet Navy needed two point conversions, overtime, and some crazy Irish turnovers to win the game against THE worst Notre Dame team in decades. Navy's offense is not as good this year; and the Irish, well, we've improved a bit since then. In 2008, Notre Dame dominated the football game. Leading 27-7 with 3 minutes to go, on the 5 yard line heading in, the Irish looked to be finishing off the most dominating win over Navy in a number of years. A fumble, a few crazy plays, and then two consecutive onsides kick recoveries in the final 2:30 made the game closer than it was. The Irish only gave up 11 first downs last year, completely dominating the middies until the panic struck in the final 3 minutes. How much has changed?
• Rushing Attack  -  The Irish finally have a respectable rushing offense, ranked #59 in the country this season. Last year, the Irish racked up 230 yards rushing with last year's below average attack. While the Middies have improved greatly on defense, the Irish should be able to get to 200 yards rushing without breaking a sweat. Remember, Charlie Weis is 20-0 when he outrushes his opponent. If the Irish outrush the middies, which is very possible, it will take some crazy plays, turnovers, and onsides kicks for the Middies to win. 
• Onsides Kicks  -  While the Middies may have some other tricks up their sleeves, the Irish are not going to be caught off guard and give up 2 straight on sides kicks to Navy. Weis has put his hands teams through all types of on sides kicks in practice this week, which should give the Irish more confidence if the game goes that way. Remember, if the Irish get the first onsides kick last year, the game ends 27-14. The kicks were the key to the Middies fighting back and scaring the sh*t out of Irish fans. 

Last year, Weis called 19 passes and 51 rushes. Tomorrow, expect more of the same, as the Irish try to pound it down Navy's throat on the ground, turning the tables on the Middies. Shorten the game for the Middies, giving them a taste of their own medicine. But this year, the Irish will finish the job, not turning the ball over and missing onsides kicks like crazy. Weis will pass if Navy allows, but he will gladly beat the Middies to a pulp on the ground if Navy wants to drop 8 guys into coverage against Clausen, Floyd, Tate, and Rudolph. Look for the Irish defense to have another solid effort against Navy, but give up a few longer passes early before adjusting and locking down. 

Official Prediction:  Don't bet on this game. The Middies have covered the spread an amazing 9 times in a row within Notre Dame stadium. The Irish are better than the Middies by two TDs, and that's what I am predicting. I wouldn't bet on this game if I were you.

Irish  31   Navy  17

(Vatican Smoke's season record picking the winner straight up, 6-2; against the spread, 4-4)

Never too early to go bowling . . .

The Irish defeated Washington State in San Antonio this past weekend, 40-14. A game that was never in question was a welcome relief to many Irish fans - especially the 50,000 or so in the Alamo Dome. San Antonio was an awesome trip - very similar to a mid season bowl game, with perfect weather, a great destination, and a neutral site atmosphere. Halloween made things a bit interesting as well (costumes - I was a Big 10 Official). 

After 8 games, the Irish sit at 6-2, in line with preseason predictions by many (including myself). The remaining 4 games are all losable games, certainly. Navy, @Pitt, UConn, @Stanford. The Irish will likely be favored in at least 3 of those games, but only more than slight favorites in the two home games (ND-11pts over Navy is this week's line). Forget whether Notre Dame "should" beat these teams - reality is that the Irish could very easily lose to any of these squads.

What's at stake for the Irish in these final 4 games? Without dismissing any of the final four opponents, lets take a look at what the final 4 games could mean for the bowl picture (based on a record during these final 4 games):. 

0-4     With a record of 6-6, the possibilities are actually the most complex. The Irish could go to any of the unfulfilled bowls (like the Hawaii Bowl last year), which is tough to predict. Likely the Irish would not be selectable under their current bowl game agreements (for 2009, the BCS, Cotton, Gator, and Sun Bowls - with Champs Sports entering the equation in 2010). Lets hope we're not revisiting this topic ever again. 

• Most Likely Bowl at this Record  =  Toilet Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of occurence = 5%

1-3     The Sun Bowl and Gator Bowl would be the possibilities here, with an overall record of 7-5. Each of the bowls can select a non-BCS bound Irish team once during the 4 seasons of 2006 thru 2009 (this is the last year, and the Irish are eligible, not having been to either bowl game). The Gator and Sun Bowl together have one agreement with the Big East, Big 12, and Notre Dame. While the Gator matches one team from the Big 12/Big East/Notre Dame pool against an ACC team, the Sun Bowl does the same against a Pac 10 team. The agreement stipulates that the Sun and Gator alternate between Big 12 and Big East selections, with each having the 1 time option of Notre Dame. Last year, the Gator selected a Big 12 team (Nebraska) while the Sun Bowl selected a Big East team (Pitt), meaning those conferences will be flip-flopped this year. That means the 2010 Gator Bowl must select a Big East team or Notre Dame, while the Sun Bowl must select Big 12 or Notre Dame (Gator Bowl always gets the first pick over the Sun Bowl, when applicable).

If Pittsburgh beats the Irish and does not go to the BCS, it would be hard for the Gator Bowl to turn down Big East #2 Pittsburgh (or 10-2 West Virginia) in favor of 7-5 Notre Dame. Simply put: if the Irish go 1-3 down the stretch, then the Irish likely head to the Sun Bowl, who would choose the Irish over a mid tier Big 12 team. Certainly there is a chance of a 7-5 Irish team getting the Gator Bowl nod over an 11-1 or 10-2 Pitt or West Virginia team; assuming the 7-5 Irish lose @Pitt, a Gator Bowl bid isn't likely.

• Most Likely Bowl at 1-3  =  Sun Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of occurrence of 1-3 down the stretch = 5%

2-2 or 3-1     The situation at 8-4 or better greatly improves the options for the Irish. The same players (Gator and Sun Bowls, described above) are also viable options here; but the major new player would be the Cotton Bowl, which typically matches up SEC vs Big 12. Notre Dame has an agreement for the 2006-2009 seasons (all bowl agreements are 4 years and all expire after this season, with new 4 year agreements taking place starting next season) to select Notre Dame 1 time during that 4 year span (ending this year), in lieu of the SEC team (meaning ND would play a Big 12 team, being selected instead of an 8-4 or 9-3 Auburn, Ole Miss, or South Carolina). 

At 8-4 or 9-3, its really Gator or Cotton, with a very slim chance of a Sun Bowl bid for a badly beaten 8-4 ND squad. I believe Notre Dame would be able to choose between competing offers from the Gator and Cotton (couldn't confirm). The Gator's advantage is that NBC televises the game; while the Cotton has the edge on tradition (Irish have played in the game 7 times since 1970), location (Texas, for recruiting), appeal (first Cotton Bowl or bowl game played in the Cowboys new stadium), and time (January 2nd at 2pm, not New Years Day at 1pm like the Gator). Look for the Irish to choose the Cotton Bowl over the Gator Bowl if given the opportunity. The likely Cotton Bowl opponent would be Oklahoma St/Oklahoma/Nebraska, whereas Gator would feature Virginia Tech or Miami. 

• Most Likely Bowl at 2-2 = Gator Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of Occurrence = 25%
• Most Likely Bowl at 3-1 down the stretch = Cotton Bowl
• Estimated % Chance of Occurrence = 40%   

4-0     BCS appears likely if the Irish win out, although we could fall back into the Gator or Cotton Bowl if a few things happen. After studying the BCS selection process, here are how the 10 spots (4 bowls plus National Championship game = 10 spots) break down:

• 6 spots go to conference champions (ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, Pac 10)
• 4 spots remain for any "automatic qualifiers" (assuming top 2 BCS spots are occupied by the 2 of the conference champions noted above), which include:
1. Non-BCS conference champion ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings**
2. Non-BCS conference champion ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS, yet ahead of a BCS conference champ in the standings**
3. Notre Dame if finishes in the top 8 of the BCS (not likely even if we win out)
4. BCS conference team thats not a conference champ, but #3 or #4 in the final BCS standings
• Any remaining spots are filled by "at large" teams, which must have 9 wins and be in the top 14 of the final BCS standings. No more than 2 teams from any given conference may appear in BCS games.  
• ** = One major caveat to #1 and #2 above - only 1 non-BCS automatic qualifier can occur each year. TCU and Boise St - while both likely to finish in the top 10 - are competing with each other for one automatic spot (likely TCU due to schedule strength). The loser goes into the pool for an "at-large" bid. 

This year, here is how the 10 BCS bids will likely play out if I had to guess:

• 6 Conference Champions  -  Florida (SEC), Texas (Big 12), Georgia Tech (ACC), Cinncinnati (Big East), Oregon (Pac 10), Iowa (Big 10). Florida and Texas are title game
• 2 Automatic Qualifiers  -  TCU & Alabama. A close loss to Florida would likely keep the Tide at #3 or #4 in BCS, meaning they would be automatic. 
• 2 "At Large" Qualifers  -  to be selected from any of the other teams in the top 14 left, with the SEC likely at their max and thus further SEC teams disqualified (LSU). Likely teams in this pool would be Penn. St, Ohio St, USC, West Virginia or Pitt, Virginia Tech, Boise St, Utah, and Notre Dame. The Irish would very likely get selected as 1 of the 2 among those teams, assuming the Irish get into the top 14 in the BCS Standings (likely, considering we sit at #22 now and would move up with a victory over #13 in the BCS standings, Pitt). 

So for 4-0, with a final record of 10-2, it looks like the Irish would be BCS bound. 

• Most Likely Bowl at 4-0 = Fiesta Bowl or Sugar Bowl (two bowls that would have lost conference champs to the BCS Title Game)
• Estimated % Chance of Occurrence = 25%

The bowl picture is much clearer than I expected for the Irish, considering how a third of the season remains. Now, its prediction time:

Preseason Prediction for the Irish:  9-3, Gator Bowl vs North Carlina

Current Prediction for the Irish:  9-3, Cotton Bowl vs Oklahoma

Either of these scenarios would be an acceptable and "solid but not great" season for the Irish. 

Checkback tomorrow for the Navy game preview.