Laugh now . . .

When Pau Gasol left the Grizzlies this past February, many fans were excited beyond belief. While Pau was the team's best player, his European style of play and lack of a connection with the fans, caused him to receive the brunt of frustration by Memphis fans. The Grizzlies got seemingly little in return - and many think the deal was "highway robbery by the Lakers", and that Memphis is the "laughingstock of the league." But was the deal really that bad? Lets recap the deal: (note: if viewing this post via email or RSS feed, spreadsheet tables may not be viewable; click on blog link to view)

Kwame Brown really was just a warm body to complete the trade, as his $9M salary for 2008 was the last season on his contract, and he won't be re-signed. Aaron McKie was another expiring contract situation. All of this balancing has to occur as apart of NBA trade rules, relegating that trades must be near equal value. So the real trade was Pau for Crittenton, the two 1st round picks, the ability to use cap space, and none other than Pau's brother, Marc Gasol. Lets break down each piece:

• Javaris Crittenton was the #19 pick of the 2007 NBA Draft. During his one and only season at Georgia Tech as a freshman, he scored 15 points a game and had a solid season. Javaris is only 20 years old currently, and being a 6 foot 5 point guard, he definitely has some solid upside. He hit 20 points in a game twice for the Grizzlies, who played him quite a bit in March and especially April. The Grizzlies are still figuring out if Crittenton has the passing and defensive skills to be a solid NBA player, but the offense is definitely there. How he develops will be a big part of judging the deal.
  



• The 2 first round picks in 2008 and 2010 - The pick in 2008 is at #28 due to the Lakers having a top record in the league. That pick could net someone like Chris Douglas-Roberts, or possibly Joey Dorsey, both former Tigers that could be available at that spot, among others. If this pick nets someone who is on the team for 3 or more years, then the pick was a success. In 2010, we dont know where the pick will fall. If the Lakers are no good (unlikely), this could be a fantastic value if it were to fall within the top 10. What value we obtain from these picks must also be used to judge the balance of the trade.
  



• Cap Space - Many people were upset that Pau was traded for "nothing". Ideally we would have gotten an actual player that would help the team for a few years; however, people dont realize how tough it is to get rid of a deal the size of Pau's in the NBA given the salary structure. Unlike the NFL, you can't simply cut a player and not pay him in the NBA. Interesting column here from Memphis favorite Geoff Calkins, poking fun at the Cap space idea. But in reality, the trade of Pau Gasol cannot be judged until we sign a player with the vacated space. As I've posted about previously, there are a few free agents in 2008, but more in 2009. Luring a player to Memphis will take top dollar, however, as players won't to play for winners. Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas, Elton Brand, and Shawn Marion are a few names over the next two summers that might spark interest. Whomever we sign with max $$ will be the most important decision the Grizzlies have ever made.



• Marc Gasol - What, another Gasol?!? Different Gasol though. This version is 7 Foot 1 inch, weighing in at 260 pounds - a much more physical and beefy version of his brother. The Grizzlies acquired his "draft rights", which the Lakers selected in the 2nd round of the 2007 NBA Draft. That means the Grizzlies have the right to negotiate and sign him, but at a cost. As Marc Gasol won the Spanish league MVP this past year, he has risen to be a candidate for the top overall player in Europe. Interesting article here about him, as well as another good one at Sporting News here, both very interesting. The skinny is that most think he is NBA ready right now, and that he would be a top 15 pick in this year's NBA draft if he hadn't already been drafted. He is known for having "very good upper body strength", yet "touch" on his shot and good post moves. Sounds appealing. If Marc comes over to the Grizz for the '08-'09 season, as many expect, and he performs as well as of the last few Spanish league MVPs to jump to the NBA (Luis Sciola, Juan Carlos Navarro, Andres Nocioni), the Grizz would be ecstatic. He would be a solid tandem with Darko at center. We still have a gaping hole at power forward, but you can never have too many centers that are at least decent.
  
  

The Grizzlies will net 4 players (Crittenton, 2 draft picks, Marc Gasol) plus whomever they sign with the cap space (1 or 2 people). So before everyone gets too excited about this deal being "the most lop sided in history", lets judge the deal based upon the 5 or 6 players that end up suiting up for the Grizz over the next few years because of the deal.

The Pope's prediction - Marc Gasol will be as good as his brother, but tougher and more likeable. The Lakers 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010 become solid performers for the Grizz. Javaris Crittenton is either cut or traded at some point in the next year. As for whom we might sign, my best guess would be Shawn Marion or Elton Brand, but thats really tough to predict. If we sign either of those, and my predictions hold true, how about a starting lineup/backup depth chart like this?

Plenty of fun assumptions made for that depth chart, certainly. But would anyone be able to say that our team isn't better off with this depth chart, than with this?

White Out

Against my promise of last Friday, I am posting again today about Notre Dame. Two things happened over the weekend, one of which being a huge occurence:

• Kevin White is no longer the Athletics Director at Notre Dame. He has accepted the same position (with the addition of Vice President at the front of his title) at Duke University. At first glance, this move was one of job security for Kevin White. It was long known that White opposed the firing of Tyrone Willingham in 2003, but the move occured anyway due to pressure from the Board of Trustees. In addition, it was also reported that he was against the 10 year contract given to Weis just months into his first season. White likely saw that he was going to be held accountable for decisions that he wasn't fully controlling. I'm sure the less intense and microscoped environment of Durham will be a much better retirement than in South Bend, where he could have been one more bad football season away from being fired. We can't forget that he signed Bob Davie to a contract extension in early 2000, only to fire him later that year. Then he hired George O'Leary, who was on campus for 7 days before being fired due to resume issues. And then he hired Willingham and oversaw that debacle. No doubt that non-football sports made enormous strides under White however. Overall it was a great job in non-football sports but a sub-par one for Notre Dame football.



• Notre Dame and Utah will likely play in 2010 at Notre Dame stadium in a 1 game deal. This is a good move for the Irish, as we get a brand new flavor that is also a competitive college football team. Certainly they are not tier 1, but they are a solid opponent that is respectable and (should be) beatable. Always good to keep the schedule fresh and geographically spread out.

Right now there is no timetable or official hiring schedule for a new AD. The South Bend Tribune has created a list of candidates of interest, with really only two things connecting them: Athletics Directing experience, as well as passing through Notre Dame at some point in their lives. Prediction from my seat: Lawrence "Bubba" Cunningham, who has a few huge things going for him.

1. He graduated from ND (twice, 1984 & 1988)



2. He was an athlete at ND (golf)



3. He worked in the Athletics office at ND for 15 years (!!) after college, being the lead negotiator in the current deal with Adidas.



4. He has now been a full athletics director at two schools (Ball St. & Tulsa)

I met the guy once, and he was super charismatic and classy - perfect for this role. Certainly I think there is one other viable candidate that I just must mention . . .

99 Days . . .

. . . until the Irish take the field against San Diego St. Not too much happening in college football until camps open in August, so don't expect much from this blog. A few tidbits of note over the past few weeks:

• Coach Weis visited soldiers in Iraq, touring with other college football coaches. By all accounts it was a great experience for Weis and the military alike. The coaches coached and refereed a flag football game on Memorial Day, staying afterwards to sign autographs for hours. Interestingly enough, the coaches were asked to write messages on some bombs to be dropped in Afghanistan. Weis wrote, "You will lose. Go Irish!" on his bomb, sparking the creation of t-shirts everywhere. I still say 2008's "The Shirt" for Notre Dame football should say: "Notre Dame Football 2008 - No more F_cking Around"




• Notre Dame appeared at #19 in Phil Steele's preseason poll, being released over this past week and next week. No that's not a typo, and no this is not for basketball. Phil Steele is known for his analytic approach and is incredibly well respected in the college football community. No doubt he sees the Irish much weakened schedule as a big harbinger of the Irish return to relevancy. Personally I think he is a bit optimistic, but its nice to see an objective analyst make a call instead of me/message board dude/Lou Holtz making the claim. Also nice to see BYU at #17 in his pole. Not sure why I mentioned that . . .
  
  
• Army and Notre Dame will likely begin playing again in 2010 or later. Great news for traditionalists, although many younger Irish fans are tired of playing service academies. The games will be at Notre Dame Stadium for Irish home years, and in neutral sites like Philadelphia, Orlando, Chicago, etc. for Army host years (similar to the Navy series). Every schedule has to have some "softer" teams, so ours might as well be service academies, which I have enormous respect for (insert Navy joke here). As long as we keep the Michigan and USCs, as well as some new fresh rivalries on the schedule (i.e. Oklahoma home and away in 2012 and 2013), I will be fine. Would be great to add more SEC teams like Georgia or Alabama onto the schedule, but that looks doubtful as the push is fore more neutral site games that essentially are under Irish control. Big, "premier" programs would only play home and home most likely.
  
• One transfer out, two players return. Freshman linebacker Aaron Nagel will seek a transfer after being buried on the depth chart and potentially behind incoming freshman this fall. Wish him well, and thank him for opening a schollie for someone else. In great news, last year starting defensive tackle Pat Kuntz will be returning to campus, after leaving due to academic reasons in the spring. Sophomore Tight End Will Yeatman has also returned, after being suspending for a drinking incident on campus. Yeatman missed the spring, which included his participation on the Irish lacrosse team, on which he earned National Lacrosse Rookie of the Year in 2007. At 6 foot 6, 260 pounds, Yeatman is the perfect size for a tight end, and also can lay hat on the lacrosse field. Both will start or at the minimum play significant minutes for the Irish.
  
• Talent levels in 2008 are arguably back to a competitive level, although not in the senior or 5th year senior classes. The "star" system for high school recruits has been pretty steady since about 2001, and many are starting to see a direct correlation between NFL draft picks and successful college football programs and the star rankings out of high school. In short, 5 star players have statistically shown to have a much higher chance of being a top 2 round NFL draft pick than 3 star players, as these high school talent evaluators are getting pretty good at what they do. The hard issue is how do you compare a senior in college that was a former 5 star signee, with a true freshman 5 star? Obviously the former is more valuable, and that's what the Irish lack. The Irish 1st - 3rd year players represent 3 straight top 8 ranked classes in 2006 - 2008 (and the top RB in the nation Cierre Wood (pictured) on the way for 2009); however, the lack of talent in the 4th and 5th year classes will continue to hurt the Irish in 2008. Come 2009 though, the Irish will have no excuses for not winning 9 games a year.

Hopefully the team is getting into shape and the incoming freshman will work hard to be ready to contribute come September. Probably won't be too much blogging on the Irish until a few pre-season posts come August. Talk is cheap, and all the Irish can do to gain respect back is to show up in September. My official prediction for the season will be decided later, but I look for the Irish to be much more competitive and enjoyable to watch this year.

Grizzlies' Draft History

The 2008 NBA Draft is Thursday, June 26th, roughly 4 weeks from now. Most all Grizzlies fans are disappointed in not getting Rose or Beasley; however, fans are slowly beginning to become more optimistic about our pick at #5.

Why the optimism? The unknown will always spark optimism from many. Other than the natural optimists (like me and Randy Quaid in Major League 2), a reason to be excited about our pick is the deep talent in the 2008 draft pool. Chad Ford of ESPN.com, his most recent Mock Draft, has us taking LSU's Anthony Randolph (whom I posted about before the draft lottery here). There have also been mock drafts projecting the Grizz take OJ Mayo. At the end of the day, the right pick is, at best, unclear. Lucky for us, the Grizzlies have a great history of selecting the right players in the draft . . . (thick sarcasm-filled silence). Lets take a look at recent drafting results of the Grizz: (please note, if you do not see spreadsheet table, go to VaticanSmoke.com. Email and RSS viewers might not get spreadsheet in view)



A few notes about the draft data:

• Of the players the Grizzlies drafted above, only the 3 most recent are still with the team. Even 2 of the 3 traded draft picks still have nothing currently represented on the team (Rudy Gay being the exception).






• The biggest story here are the names that the Grizzlies didn't draft. [Unless otherwise mentioned, I only reviewed the 10 picks after the Grizzlies' spot for draft success. These next 10 players were the only realistic/feasible alternatives for the Grizz. Some years, there were even more players in the later first or second rounds] David West instead of Marcus Banks? Amare Stoudemire instead of Drew Gooden? Tony Parker or Gilbert Arenas instead of Jamaal Tinsley? Shane Battier (yes, the beloved Shane) instead of Richard Jefferson? Tough misses. [Yes, Tinsley & Banks were traded - but look who we could have gotten]




• The most recent 3 picks are not "busts" yet. Hakim has made improvements in shooting and rebounding, while Mike Conley has shown promise in his 1 year. Lowry is the closest to a bust, but he is still quite young and capable of a backup point guard role. The term "bust" in regards to an NBA 1st Rounder, in my opinion, is a sliding scale depending on the draft spot. Top 10 draft pick needs to be a starter, spots 10 - 20 a starter or solid role player, and late 1st round just needs to be a role player and help the team. With only 2 rounds a year, there are not going to be many impact players drafted in a given year.






• 2003 was the year of "Lebron" , where the Grizzlies would lose their lottery pick via a trade agreement unless it was #1 overall. Cleveland won out the right to be in the playoffs the next 15 years by drafting Lebron, and Memphis getting the #2 pick meant nothing. Ironically, the Pistons selected Darko Milicic with that pick, and he is currently the Grizz's center. Now he is a bust, but for the Pistons and not (as much) the Grizz.




• The Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins deal to Boston for Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones was complete garbage. Not only considering the players we could have drafted, but losing a solid big body center like Kendrick Perkins makes it twice as foolish. Perkins is exactly what the Grizz still need - a big, youthful body in the middle to anchor a defense [Ironically enough, Kendrick Perkins committed to John Calipari's Tigers out of high school, before entering the NBA draft. Just like Amare Stoudemire, another Tiger commit that jumped straight to the NBA] . Perkins aside, using those picks to select David West and Josh Howard would have put the Grizz solidly in the playoffs last year, easily.






• The best move the Grizz have ever made was trading Shane Battier for Rudy Gay and Stromile Swift. Kudos for a move that is going to pay great dividends, with Rudy Gay now an emerging star and the face of our franchise.

Yes, I know, everyone can play the "Hindsight is 20/20 vision" game. But there is no doubting continued 1st round drafting success leads to playoff and championship caliber teams (i.e. San Antonio). There is also little doubt that continued 1st round drafting mistakes will keep a team in the lottery (i.e. Knicks, Grizzlies). The Grizz have certainly been in the later.

With a new GM (Chris Wallace, my boy) in charge, lets hope our history of botching draft day is changed.

Vince Young's AARP Membership

. . . is not valid quite yet. This story blew up over the last few days, as Vince Young was quoted as saying that he had "thought about retiring" after his 2006 season (his rookie year). Those quotes combined with this picture of Vince Young surfacing a few weeks back, and he's had a little bit more attention than he'd like for an offseason.

The Pope hesitates to post on topics that don't need commenting, as wasting readers time is not the Pope's favorite thing to do. To keep it short and sweet, here are the Pope's thoughts:

• Vince Young is 25 years old. In that party picture linked to above, he was drinking out of a bottle with his shirt off. Luckily the Pope is not running for reelection anytime soon, because my shirtless/bottle toting pictures are about a dime a dozen. Media and bloggers are happy to show the picture, but not to mention that the picture was taken in Austin, TX, as Vince Young is back at school this offseason finishing his degree. Signed to a deal worth around $55 Mill ($26M guaranteed), obviously he needs his degree right?


• Vince Young, just like any other kid that leaves the perfect world of college, was a bit shocked as he entered the real world in 2006. Being an NFL quarterback is much more mentally, physically, and emotionally difficult than most every job (and they are paid for it). I'm sure he was a little depressed when he had "thoughts of retiring", but I don't believe him. His doubt was unlike anyone else who is adjusting to the real world out of college.


• Vince Young still is and will be a good NFL quarterback. I think he can be great, but he definitely needs to improve. New offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger is ready to bring Vince back to his 2006 Pro Bowl form.
  

One interesting thing that Vince said recently was that he wanted to be a "Hall of Fame Quarterback", not a "Pocket Quarterback" or a "Pro Style Quarterback". Vince didn't run the ball much last year, and many pointed to NFL defenses adjusting to his style of play as the reason for 2007 not being as successful as 2006 was for Vince. In reality Norm Chow had Vince running his offense, without enough regard to Vince's unique talents. Great article here at the Sporting News about how Vince Young and the Titans could be much improved on offense even without having added a top WR.

In addition to Heimerdinger at the helm of the offense, the Titans have added veteran tight end Alge Crumpler, resigned former Titans WRs Justin Gage and Justin McCareins, and drafted a "speed back" in East Carolina's Chris Johnson, who by early indications is working out well. The plan is that Heimerdinger will be molding the offense around Vince, so hopefully we'll see some more of the Rose Bowl Vince in 2008. Heimerdinger was the O-coordinator for Steve McNair during his prime, and seems to have a good feel for mobile QBs.

Vince's performance in the 2006 Rose Bowl, shown here, is still one of the most impressive individual sporting performances I have ever seen in my life, always worth revisiting: